More Good News
The Gulf Arabs want nukes. Why is this good news? Nuclear-armed Persian Shiites and Sunni Arabs can stare at each other across the Gulf, a lot like the Indians and Paks stare at each other across the Line of Control. Nuclear-armed Israelis will stare at all of them.
Fly in the ointment: Iraq remains the no mans land. Guerrilla war and terrorism will continue throughout the region, the only option when the alternative is Armageddon. But with the playing field leveled, no fear that the Iranians will become the dominant power in the region.
Some people may be unhappy with all these Muslim bombs around. But that train left the station about 20 years ago. This was inevitable. So, look on the bright side of that mushroom cloud. Maybe they suddenly have to grow up a little. Meanwhile, they keep each other in check.
That’s the reality. The United States has yet to show any signs of having a practical strategy for dealing with a nuclearly inclined Iran. As long as we are sitting around letting the Euros do the talking with the mullahs, nothing will be accomplished. The United States’s influence with the Saudis also would appear to have its limits.
My own idea of standoff destruction of Iran’s means of financing terrorism and nukes is not likely to be adopted, I’m afraid. Barring that, the Iranians must be made to know directly that they will face Assured Destruction if they try anything.
Meanwhile, we take the Iranians down a few notches in Iraq. And as noted below, it looks like that might actually be about to happen.
Either all of the above, or we wring our hands for a while, then get everyone to sit down and agree to a non-proliferation treaty. Wait a minute, we already have one of those. Never mind.
LGF doesn’t like it. Isn’t offering up any suggestions, however.
Footnote: LGF is rightly concerned about corrupt regimes and religious fanaticism. The Gulfis are primarily interested in making money, however, and have been inching toward reforms. People who are interested in making money usually would rather chisel you out of it than blow it all up. The Wahabist threat, in any case, is nicely counterbalanced by the Shiites and the Israelis. The more I think about it, the more I like this three-legged stool. Could solve a lot of problems for us, and maybe even become the key to Mideast peace. Unless … it all … goes … horribly … wrong.
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Posted by Jules Crittenden at 1:48 am Comments (5) on Monday, December 11, 2006
5 Responses to “More Good News”
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December 11th, 2006 at 4:11 am
You are right in saying that with all Arab states holding nuclear weapons, it will be kind of a stand-off and no one would really use them. Just like USA and USSR before. With the threat from Iran reduced, I am sure USA will see the silver lining and start selling nuclear technology to all. Like they are going to do with India after signing a special agreement with enough loopholes for both countries to pursue their goals. What hypocracy. And we should remember that USA is the possessor of largest number nuclear weapons today (after the ignominous end of USSR and dismantling and dispersion of their weapopns) and it is USA which engaged in the arms race and is partly responsible for today’s world situation as far as neculear ambition goes. May be it is also appropriate to remember that only USA has used nuclear weapons in a combat.
It seems USA will win either way with proliferation or non-proliferation. What a wonderful situation to be in.
December 11th, 2006 at 12:11 pm
As you say, nuclear proliferation is inevitable. If the Middle East goes all armageddon, the best we can hope for is they will start by taking each other out before they get to us. Frankly, that’s the likeliest possibility too.
December 11th, 2006 at 12:27 pm
The Arab world does not have the culture for running a nuclear weapons program. Nuclear weapons require constant maintenance and oversight. Yet, these are the countries that have a culture of not maintaining anything.
The Arab world also buys its expertise from the rest of the world. The Arab world would not control its nuclear weapons but the Europeans, American, and Far East contractors would operate the security, maintenace, production, and disposal systems.
December 11th, 2006 at 3:30 pm
Nuclear weapons require constant maintenance and oversight.
Only when you plan on storing them ;->
December 11th, 2006 at 4:53 pm
Yup, the Arabs are worse than the Russians when it comes to maintenance of anything, including bicycles.
On the other hand, I suspect they will aim their fresh new nukes at each other first, which is fine with me.
And I think the West, the ones who want to outlive the coming tragedy with our own civilization somewhat intact (I therefore exclude Europe and Russia) should concentrate on finding viable alternatives to Mid East oil. Fast.