Surge Talk
Jack Keane and Frederick Kagan talk surge, in detail. Make it big, let it last long. 30,000 for at least 18 months. Or forget about it. “Any other option is likely to fail.”
Defeat enthusiast Biden likes Fail Option A. No surge at all.
Here’s the pdf of Kagan’s outline for victory in Iraq, compliments of John Pike at GlobalSecurity.org.
More surge talk at al-Reuters. Catchup on the prospective 2nd Brigade 82nd Abn move into Kuwait, plus some chatter about surge-worthiness: con, no pro included. Interesting report that Abizaid, supposedly anti-surge, issued the “call-forward” order prior to Gates’ trip to Iraq.
Continuing yesterday’s discussion on the subject, I’d suggest that a surge plan that doesn’t include a comprehensive plan to deal with Iran is a waste of time.
Long-term surge with an aggressive plan to take down the Shiite militias, coupled with air attacks on Iran’s WMD sites as discussed yesterday, would be a massive psychological blow to the Iranians, in addition to taking out resources and proxies that have taken years to develop. Too bad the Israelis stopped when they did last summer, though for the moment Hezbollah is on ice. Devastating defeats for Iran on three fronts would be good.
But it may take the Shiite pols down an notch and create an opening for a deal with the Sunni tribes to scale down the insurgency. End would be nice, but probably too much to expect.
As Keane and Kagan suggest, short-term surge does nothing. And maybe surge makes the Iraqi forces complacent, as Whitman in the Reuters article suggests. But maybe aggressive, long-term surge as part of a comprehesive strategy gives everyone confidence in the prospect of actual victory and buys valuable time.
Dan Riehl takes note of more tough action vs. Iranian interests in Iraq. One of al-Sadr’s chiefs in Najaf won’t be down for hummus. This of course follows the arrest of two top Iranian military officials.
Captains Quarters discusses the message sent to al-Sadr.
Richard at Hyscience suggests the Rules of Engagement are shifting.
Matthew Yglesias expresses more enthusiasm for defeat with a whack at the victory party: Proposing a big surge is only cover for blaming others when it doesn’t happen.
Slightly off-topic, WakeUpAmerica compares the example of Prince Harry’s deployment with the Household cavalry in Iraq to Biden’s eagerness to give up. Don’t worry, they don’t plan on letting any jihadis get anywhere near Harry. But he’s there, as his Uncle Andrew was playing Exocet magnet in the Falklands, and many others before him.
Topics: Uncategorized
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:39 pm on Wednesday, December 27, 2006
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