Stratfor’s 2007 Take
The open-source intelligence analysis firm sees the United States and Iran manuevering aggressively this year toward positions from which they can negotiate a political solution in Iraq. Meanwhile, Russia and China pose problems to the extent that … the U.S.-jihadist war is not the most important thing going on in the world.” Some of Stratfor’s key predictions:”Bush’s hope is that this (Iraq surge) strategy will cause all parties to the war to reconsider their comfortable assumptions about the United States in Iraq. In 2007, we will see whether the strategy succeeds. The fact is that the United States cannot simply withdraw forces from Iraq, as that would leave Iran the dominant power in the region.”
“The United States is blocking Iranian ambitions as much as Iran is blocking American ambitions. As 2007 unfolds, this will open new possibilities for political arrangements. We would not be surprised to see some moves, however tentative, toward a political settlement in 2007.”
“The United States will spend the coming months taking an aggressive stance against Iranian operations in Iraq … By upping the ante against Iran, the United States is placing a critical bet that the Iranians will reconsider their Iraq strategy and come to the negotiating table rather than risk a serious miscalculation.”"… To go along with the troop surge, the United States will focus on … sidelining allies of Shiite rebel leader Muqtada al-Sadr … Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also could resign in as little as four months.”
“… For its part, Iran has been keen to bring the Americans to the negotiating table on its terms. … Tehran will focus this year on increasing the political and military costs to the United States of remaining in Iraq… a major shake-up in the Iranian regime is likely to happen this year (with Khamenei’s expected death), and it could upset Iran’s calculus in dealing with the United States on Iraq.”
“Meanwhile, the weakness of the Bush administration clearly is not ending. Bush seems to be acting decisively, until one considers how small his room for maneuver actually is … Whenever the world’s leading power moves toward political paralysis, others become much more aggressive. We see this and will continue to see this in places from Venezuela to Asia. But the most important actions will be taken by the great powers, Russia and China.” “We expect the Russians to continue to step up their regional assertiveness through the coming year … The Russians will continue to exacerbate problems for the United States in the Muslim world. They want to limit American power, and they will use such means to do so … A conservative estimate is that bad loans in China equal about 40 percent of gross domestic product. A more reasonable estimate is about 60 percent … ““For Westerners, the question on China is, when will it crash? … The regime sees the United States as a threat to its security over the long term, and is taking steps to assert itself against the United States … China is not about to undertake military adventures in 2007, but it also is not prepared to be a passive onlooker in the Pacific. There will be more friction.”Subscription only. That’s all you get.“For Westerners, the question on China is, when will it crash? … The regime sees the United States as a threat to its security over the long term, and is taking steps to assert itself against the United States … China is not about to undertake military adventures in 2007, but it also is not prepared to be a passive onlooker in the Pacific. There will be more friction.”
“For Westerners, the question on China is, when will it crash? … The regime sees the United States as a threat to its security over the long term, and is taking steps to assert itself against the United States … China is not about to undertake military adventures in 2007, but it also is not prepared to be a passive onlooker in the Pacific. There will be more friction.”Subscription only. That’s all you get.
Stratfor’s remarkable statement that ”the U.S.-jihadist war is not the most important thing going on in the world” is in fact true, if you cut Iran out of that equation. I’m not sure you can do that, but jihadi terrorism per se has been effectively contained. Thanks to the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, thanks to aggressive measures in the United States and among some of our allies. Thanks to warrantless surveillance and monitoring of bank transactions. Thanks to Guantanamo. That doesn’t mean the jihadi threat is unimportant or over. It means it is contained for now and there are other threats that are not.
Personally, I highly doubt we will see direct negotiations with Iran, as I believe the Bush administration would be unwilling to grant Iran that much credibility as a powerbroker. There may be very significant chats in the hallways at nuke talks and other venues, however. The buildup in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf suggests another course. Iran will be hamstrung in Iraq and faced down the Gulf, if not actually attacked by air, while the Bush administration waits to see whether the power struggle shakes out to our advantage.
Russia and China are longer term problems, in terms of global influence and the potential for future conflict, but need to be addressed now. It is always easier to deal with these things sooner than later. China’s economic woes, and how that effects us … a highly complex picture I’ll leave to others to address.
Topics: China, Iran, Iraq, Russia
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:35 pm on Wednesday, January 17, 2007
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January 17th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
Stratfor’s 2007 Take
Stratfor’s 2007 TakeJules Crittenden The open-source intelligence analysis firm sees the United States and Iran manuerving aggressively this year toward positions from which they can negotiate a political solution in Iraq. Meanwhile, Russia and China…
January 18th, 2007 at 3:31 am
The problem, of course, is that Iran knows that it has time. All it has to do is wait out Bush’s presidency (Ahmadinejad said as much last year). The rest of the government has shown that we are weak as water and will not engage in further war. Nothing short of an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel–if that–will move this country to recognize that we are in a true war and simply picking up our marbles and saying we won’t play anymore isn’t an option.
The peaceniks love to equate this war with Viet Nam, but ignores the fact that the enemy in that war had no intention of following the troops back to our shores. This is not the case in this war, of course. Right now their rhetoric is causing deaths in Iraq, both American and Iraqi. That is only the short-term consequences, however; long-term, the same rhetoric will cause more deaths on our soil, and they won’t be military deaths, but that of civilians going about their daily lives. Then we’ll see these same people point fingers at a government whose hands they’ve tied.
China’s economy will crash about the same time that the consequences of having a young generation of mostly young men come to the fore. That’s never a good combination.