Geo-Pol Consequences of U.S. Polls
Or, How Polls Can Kill:
Stratfor puts Bush in do-or-die territory. Which puts U.S. influence in the world in the same territory. Bush’s SOTU …
“… was framed by the release Monday of a CBS public opinion poll that shows Bush’s approval ratings falling to only 28 percent … the CBS poll shows Bush as somewhat weaker than do other polls, which are tracking him in the low 30s. But the poll is consistent with others on the negative side, with everyone giving him a disapproval rating of 61-64 percent. The CBS poll differs primarily in that it has a higher undecided percentage than the other polls, and this is mostly subtracted from Bush’s approval numbers. This undoubtedly is linked to a methodological issue of how questions are framed and how they are categorized.
“Bush’s poll ratings have now become a geopolitical issue. As we have discussed in the past, Bush’s political position collapsed when he went below the high 30s. At that point, he started losing his Republican base. What we are now seeing is not an erosion of the base, but a Nixon-style split … reflected in the decision by some Republican senators to oppose Bush’s troop surge in Iraq.
“Bush’s strategy in Iraq, to the extent that it has any viability, depends on the Iraqi — and Iranian — perception that Bush retains control of U.S. policy and that he has freedom to maneuver. Iraqi and Iranian politicians are watching the polls and watching Congress. The ultimate hammer that Congress has — which it used to shut down U.S. participation in Vietnam — is to cut off funding. Until now, there has been a general consensus that there aren’t the votes in Congress to achieve that …
“Bush is now edging from the area where we can call him a crippled president — if not a failed one — to an area where he could genuinely lose the ability to govern. If his numbers plunge into the 20s, a substantial number of Republican senators and congress members might well decide that it is time to cut their own political losses and break with the president openly. That is what happened to Nixon. Leaving out the question of resignation or impeachment — neither of which is possible under even worst-case scenarios — Bush could face a revolt by enough Republicans in Congress that funding cuts could be imposed even in the face of a presidential veto …
“Bush’s strategy collapses if he is perceived as being crippled. No one will ally with the United States if they are unsure of continued U.S. support, and no one will hesitate to oppose the United States in Iraq if Congress seems likely to cut funding. Bush’s military strategy was always a very long shot, but there was some possibility that he could achieve a political solution if he showed that he remained powerful.
“We are now very near to the point where Bush’s ability to govern, even in his role as commander-in-chief, is in jeopardy. We would judge that he is not quite there yet; but if other polls were to fall and stay in the 20s, the Republicans in Congress would split wide open. At this point, Bush is one piece of bad news away from paralysis.”
This is why Republicans in Congress need to heed their own counsel. You cannot govern by poll. Polls that embolden our enemies and force a pullout from Iraq will be polls that kill.
Stratfor.com, subscription only. h/t Tigerhawk.
Topics: Uncategorized
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:46 am on Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Leave a Reply
Trackback URLYou must be logged in to post a comment.
