National Intelligence Estimated
Once again, the National Intelligence Estimate, turns out to be a good measure of national intelligence.*
For example, why would the Washington Post, which is staffed by smart people, lede with this:
The U.S. intelligence community yesterday released a starkly pessimistic assessment of the situation in Iraq, warning that even if security improves, deepening sectarian divisions threaten to destroy the government and ultimately could lead to anarchy, partition or the emergence of a new dictatorship.
But bury this:
The NIE did not directly address the effect of sending more troops. But one section supported the administration’s public insistence that U.S. forces are “an essential stabilizing element in Iraq.” Their rapid withdrawal, the NIE said, “almost certainly would lead” to increased sectarian violence and make reconciliation more difficult.
Just curious. I’m thinking paragraph 6 answers the questions raised by paragraph 1, which happen to be the pressing questions now before a Congress that is desperately lunging for the wrong answers.
As if to make the point:
Key Democrats in Congress embraced the estimate to bolster their rejection of Bush’s plan. “I do not see anything, so far, in the report that suggests the president’s new plan is a winning strategy that protects America’s national interest,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.).
WaPo’s paragraph 6, Harry … paragraph 6.
The entire, 90-page classified NIE, titled “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead,” was delivered to Congress yesterday morning after most members had left for the weekend.
That’s a good title. I like the “challenging” part. Feeds into Democorrect lingo, and this Congress is in many respects “challenged.” Fortitude-challenged. Logic-challenged. Plan-challenged.
The report apparently downplays the importance of Iran’s role in Iraq, which suggests the intelligence community is a tad intelligence challenged. Though in fairness this document is often way behind the curve. WaPo paraphrasing NSA Stephen Hadley: “it failed to consider Iran’s negative impact on the entire Middle East.”
The NIE is of the opinion that Iraq’s sectarian violence is internalized and self-sustaining to the extent that the removal of Iranian and Syrian ”accelerants” wouldn’t make much difference. I doubt that. As stated before, I think the head of Iranian proxy Moqtada al-Sadr on a stake and the destruction of his Mahdi Army would have a great effect on reducing sectarian violence, in concert with the destruction of Sunni extremists, some of whom we’re told are also supported by Iran. The Iraqi people want peace, not violence. Kill the combatants and eliminate their means of support, and the Iraqi people will have it.
In any case, the NIE is the kind of report that should offer some insight on where efforts need to be directed, issues that need to be addressed. It is not a strategy. But it is a report that, by design, should be worst-case and pessimistic.
Threatswatch: also sees reasons to pursue success buried in the NIE.
*National intelligence estimate: early indicators based on this coverage … not good. Key point, in addition to others raised above, both the NIE and the White House press corps apparently get bogged down in a quagmire over whether Iraq is a “civil war.”
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:28 pm on Friday, February 2, 2007
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