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Method to Mullah Madness

Stratfor is of the opinion the Iranian anti-ship missile tests were a clumsy charade  staged mainly for a domestic audience, and maybe to fool us.  They sure fooled the AP, but that’s another matter: 

Ali Fadavi, a senior Revolutionary Guards naval commander, touted the test of an “SSN-4 Sark” anti-ship missile …Fadavi said Feb. 8 that the missile gives Iran a new ability to engage large capital ships anywhere in the Persian Gulf. With the USS Stennis Carrier Strike Group (CSG) en route to the region and the USS Eisenhower CSG already on station, Fadavi’s claim is a necessary bit of Iranian posturing. But it is also the latest thread in a web of confusion the Iranians are intent on weaving.

… By changing nomenclatures and inflating effects, Iran hopes to camouflage its actual military capability and confuse foreign intelligence analysts. It is also important for Iran to do so for domestic consumption, since the clerical regime must continue to demonstrate to the people of Iran that it is capable of defending them against U.S. attack.

The SS-N-4 (NATO designation) is not an anti-ship missile. It is an obsolete sub-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) of Soviet design — in truth, a poor design to begin with — with almost twice the range and three times the payload Fadavi claims. The “Sark” is actually the SS-N-5, an obsolete ground-based ballistic missile with even greater range and payload.

… In fact, a ballistic missile is not convertible for use against ships. Its flight characteristics are very different from those of missiles designed for that purpose, and the guidance package would require a complete overhaul. … One of Iran’s numerous anti-ship missiles can do this quite well.

… But operating for the most part in open water such as the Arabian Sea, U.S. ships should be far enough removed from the increased threat — with time to detect and react to an inbound missile.

Nevertheless, Iran should not be underestimated … It has spent decades contemplating weaknesses and vulnerabilities in the U.S. war machine, developing asymmetrical challenges to U.S. military power — especially naval power — and building a robust domestic defense industry geared toward building new capabilities.

 

Topics: Iran

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 12:27 am on Saturday, February 10, 2007

4 Responses to “Method to Mullah Madness”

1. Bill's Bites Says:
   February 10th, 2007 at 4:37 am

   Method to Mullah Madness

   Method to Mullah Madness Jules Crittenden Stratfor is of the opinion the Iranian anti-ship missile tests were a clumsy charade staged mainly for a domestic audience, and maybe to fool us. They sure fooled the AP, but that’s another matter:

2. Old War Dogs Says:
   February 10th, 2007 at 4:38 am

   Bill’s Nibbles– 2007.02.10

   Some Bill’s Bites posts, some things I excerpted and linked but I’m sending you to the original post. I may rearrange the order of the items within this post as I add new things that I think belong above the

3. saltydog Says:
   February 11th, 2007 at 7:00 am

   This only works if we don’t shoot back. I mean *really* shoot back. Unfortunately, I’ve begun to wonder if we have the conviction and courage to do it.

4. major john Says:
   February 11th, 2007 at 12:10 pm

   I am not sure how “robust” their domestic defense industry is… They keep buying from the Chinese and Russians, and their oil industry infrastructure is grinding down. Doesn;t sound like a “robust” industrial base to me.

   I think we have to prepare for the export versions of Russian and Chinese weapons.

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