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Al Qaeda Spring

NYT, citing intel sources who don’t want to discuss details, says al Qaeda is on the upswing in North Waziristan:   

WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 — Senior leaders of Al Qaeda operating from Pakistan have re-established significant control over their once battered worldwide terror network and over the past year have set up a band of training camps in the tribal regions near the Afghan border, according to American intelligence and counterterrorism officials.

American officials said there was mounting evidence that Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, had been steadily building an operations hub in the mountainous Pakistani tribal area of North Waziristan. Until recently, the Bush administration had described Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri as detached from their followers and cut off from operational control of Al Qaeda.

The United States has also identified several new Qaeda compounds in North Waziristan, including one that officials said might be training operatives for strikes against targets beyond Afghanistan.

American analysts said recent intelligence showed that the compounds functioned under a loose command structure and were operated by groups of Arab, Pakistani and Afghan militants allied with Al Qaeda. They receive guidance from their commanders and Mr. Zawahri, the analysts said. Mr. bin Laden, who has long played less of an operational role, appears to have little direct involvement.

Officials said the training camps had yet to reach the size and level of sophistication of the Qaeda camps established in Afghanistan under Taliban rule. But groups of 10 to 20 men are being trained at the camps, the officials said, and the Qaeda infrastructure in the region is gradually becoming more mature.

The new warnings are different from those made in recent months by intelligence officials and terrorism experts, who have spoken about the growing abilities of Taliban forces and Pakistani militants to launch attacks into Afghanistan. American officials say that the new intelligence is focused on Al Qaeda and point to the prospect that the terrorist network is gaining in strength despite more than five years of a sustained American-led campaign to weaken it.

… As recently as 2005, American intelligence assessments described senior leaders of Al Qaeda as cut off from their foot soldiers and able only to provide inspiration for future attacks. But more recent intelligence describes the organization’s hierarchy as intact and strengthening.

“The chain of command has been re-established,” said one American government official, who said that the Qaeda “leadership command and control is robust.”

Very interesting.  If al Qaeda is ”gaining strength despite more than five years of a sustained American-led campaign to weaken it,” it sounds like it has a way to go. Recent track record spotty. A few days ago, Stratfor suggested that al-Zawahiri’s deference to the one-eyed mullah Omar boded ill for Osama. In any case, more reason to lean on the Paks to get serious about Waziristan. 

Topics: GWOT, al qaeda

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:28 pm on Sunday, February 18, 2007

5 Responses to “Al Qaeda Spring”

1. Bill's Bites Says:
   February 19th, 2007 at 1:58 am

   Al Qaeda Spring

   Al Qaeda SpringJules Crittenden NYT, citing intel sources who don’t want to discuss details, says al Qaeda is on the upswing in North Waziristan: WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 — Senior leaders of Al Qaeda operating from Pakistan have re-established significa…

2. Old War Dogs Says:
   February 19th, 2007 at 1:59 am

   Bill’s Nibbles — 2007.02.19

   Some Bill’s Bites posts, some things I excerpted and linked but I’m sending you to the original post. I may rearrange the order of the items within this post as I add new things that I think belong above the

3. The Moderate Voice » Blog Archive » Al Qaeda Leaders Regaining Power Says:
   February 19th, 2007 at 5:29 am

   [...] Jules Crittenden: more reason to lean on the Paks to get serious about Waziristan. [...]

4. Terrye Says:
   February 19th, 2007 at 5:49 am

   Michael Yon is predicting a lot of fighting here in the spring.

5. Cliff Clavin Says:
   February 19th, 2007 at 10:34 am

   Although I believe the mountains of North Waziristan, should become the mountains of North Wazistan, I’m sure once they slither across the border, they will be looking at AC-130’s, Warthogs, a few B-1’s maybe even a B-2, here and there.

   Leaflets should be hitting the ground, if they haven’t already stating that a rural renewal program is soon in coming.

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