Pak It Up

Cheney shows up unexpectedly and tells Musharraf what he doesn’t want to hear:   

WASHINGTON, Feb. 26 — Vice President Dick Cheney made an unannounced trip to Pakistan on Monday to deliver what officials in Washington described as an unusually tough message to Gen. Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, warning him that the newly Democratic Congress could cut aid to his country unless his forces become far more aggressive in hunting down operatives with Al Qaeda.      

Mr. Cheney’s trip was shrouded in secrecy, and he was on the ground for only a few hours, sharing a private lunch with the Pakistani leader at his palace. Notably, Mr. Cheney traveled with the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Steve Kappes, an indication that the conversation with the Pakistani president likely included discussion of American intelligence agency contentions that Al Qaeda camps have been reconstituted along the border of Afghanistan.

The decision to send Mr. Cheney secretly to Pakistan came after the White House concluded that General Musharraf is failing to live up to commitments he made to Mr. Bush during a visit here in September. General Musharraf insisted then, both in private and public, that a peace deal he struck with tribal leaders in one of the country’s most lawless border areas would not diminish the hunt for the leaders of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

… General Musharraf, a savvy survivor in the brutal world of Pakistani politics, knows that the administration is hesitant to push him too far. If his government collapses, it is not clear who would succeed him or who would gain control over Pakistan’s arsenal of nuclear weapons.

But the spread of Al Qaeda in the tribal areas threatens to undermine a central element of Mr. Bush’s argument that he is succeeding in the administration’s effort to curb terrorism. The bomb plot disrupted in Britain last summer, involving plans to hijack airplanes, has been linked by British and American intelligence agencies to camps in the Pakistan-Afghan border areas.

… Congressional Democrats have threatened to review military assistance and other aid to Pakistan unless they see evidence of aggressive attacks on Al Qaeda. The House last month passed a measure linking future military aid to White House certification that Pakistan “is making all possible efforts to prevent the Taliban from operating in areas under its sovereign control.”

Pakistan is now the fifth-largest recipient of American aid. Mr. Bush has proposed $785 million in aid to Pakistan in his new budget, including $300 million in military aid to help Pakistan combat Islamic radicalism in the country.

The rumblings from Congress give Mr. Bush and his top advisers a way of conveying the seriousness of the problem, officials said, without appearing to issue a direct threat to the proud Pakistani leader themselves.

… During his visit to Washington last fall, General Musharraf said the agreement he signed with tribal leaders, giving them greater sovereignty in the region, had “three bottom lines.” He said one was “no Al Qaeda activities in our tribal agencies or across the border in Afghanistan.” The second was “no Taliban activity” in the same areas. And the third was “no Talibanization,” which he described as “obscurantist thoughts or way of life.”

… American officials say one reason General Musharraf agreed to pull government troops back to their barracks in North Waziristan and allow tribal leaders greater control over security was to give him time to rebuild his intelligence network in the border region gradually.

Pakistan is a difficult case, and Musharraf as the article notes has to watch his back.  Pakistan, though long in bed with Islamic extremists, has suffered repeated al-Qaeda attacks beause of Musharraf’s stance, and the Paks have arrested and handed over a number of top al-Qaeda leaders.  Pakistan also launched an offensive into the tribal areas that was only marginally successful before it sat down to deal with the tribal leaders last summer.  That deal has demonstrably failed. 

As the article notes, the Bush administration has been bringing pressure and working closely to get the most out of Musharraf without jeopardizing his position for years. Now, the Dem Cong provides a conveient diplomatic tool: Cheney says, “Look, you know what I have to deal with back home, it’s out of my hands.”  Now Musharraf can turn around and do the same, and make it about money.

(Ironically, although a top rhetorical talking point for the Dems has been pull the plug on Iraq and go after bin Laden, Waziristan in fact is an example of containment strategy as the Democrats advocated it for Iraq.  Osama bin Laden is somewhat contained in the tribal areas much as Saddam Hussein was somewhat contained by the UN sanctions, despite their imminent likelihood of collapse.  Meanwhile, we’re tolerating a dictator in Musharraf, and that’s unsavory, but he’s an enlightened and benevolent free thinker compared to Saddam Hussein, whom the Dems now wish had been left in power. So, would a Democratic president and Congress have the stones to go after bin Laden in Pakistani territory? Would they want to risk turning the nuclear-armed Islamic Republic of Pakistan into the nuclear-armed Islamic Extremist Republic of Pakistan … a prospect now about one heartbeat away? I doubt it.)

Cheney’s visit is a setup for the spring offensive, now a matter of weeks away. US forces have already been shelling into Pakistan territory. What needs to happen in the spring is, at a minimum, hot pursuit if not a full on offensive, US on one side and Paks on the other.  Because the tribal leaders of Waziristan, in addition to harboring  bin Laden and new al-Qaeda camps, are also harboring the Taliban who are attacking into Afghanistan.  And they did not hold up their end of what was a sweetheart deal for them and a lousy deal for us in the first place.     

This is funny. Crooks and Liars links approvingly to Jimmy Carter hitting Dick Cheney’s batting average.  A little historical review might in order, batting stats for 1976-80.

Topics: Pakistan, al qaeda

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:53 am on Monday, February 26, 2007

7 Responses to “Pak It Up”

  1. El Cid Says:

    “Democrats, who took control of Congress last month, have urged the White House to put greater pressure on Pakistan because of statements from American commanders that units based in Pakistan that are linked to the Taliban, Afghanistan’s ousted rulers, are increasing their attacks into Afghanistan.”

    Does anyone know the record times of the backstroke swimming event, in the Olympics? I have a feeling that the “Democrats”, will better that record and soon.

  2. CavMedic Says:

    Big scary if Musharraf falls. Not only would we have an Islamic fundamentalist regime with nuclear weapons, but our supplies to Afghanistan would have to come mainly by air. Frankly, I think that would be a huge burden-just think of trying to fly in fuel enough for patrols.

  3. Bill's Bites Says:

    Pak It Up

    Bush To Musharraf: Try Harder Ed Morrissey Pervez Musharraf insisted that the peace deal he signed with tribal chiefs would not interfere with the fight against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. No one really bought it, but the Bush administration put

  4. saltydog Says:

    Of all the leaders in this fight, Musharraf is in the least enviable position. Bush has his battles, but this guy…!

    MedCav is right. Pakistan without Musharraf doesn’t bear thinking about. I’m glad I’m not one those who must do so.

  5. El Cid Says:

    When Musharraf’s ISI feeds him to dogs, and I believe they will eventually, then what?

    Thank Brahma: the creator; Vishnu: the preserver and Shiva: the destroyer, that they have the counter bomb.

    Horrible scenario, you betcha’, but it seems headed that way, regardless.

  6. El Cid Says:

    Interesting

    TEHRAN, Iran — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faced a new round of sharp criticism at home Monday after he said Iran’s nuclear program is an unstoppable train without brakes. Reformers and conservatives said such tough talk only inflames the West as it considers further sanctions.

    The criticism came even as new signs have arisen that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is growing discontented with Ahmadinejad, whom he is believed to have supported in 2005 presidential elections.

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,254725,00.html

    Ummmm Khamenei, show him his adored well, then PUSH.

  7. RebeccaH Says:

    We shouldn’t discount India’s role in containing Pakistan. They would be far more alarmed than we at Pakistan’s slide into extremism, and with good reason. If widespread hostilities broke out, India would have every nuclear spear it owns pointed at Pakistan, which would make the Chinese very nervous, which would… It’s a scary, scary scenario. But the point is, Musharraf must surely know that if widespread hostilites did break out, and all the big dogs got in the fight, Pakistan would simply disappear off the map.

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