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Six Months or Bust

UK Guardian, citing “former senior administration official” says the “Baghdad brain trust” of officers advising Petraeus gives the US in Iraq six months before the wheels fall off the cart:    

An elite team of officers advising US commander General David Petraeus in Baghdad has concluded the US has six months to win the war in Iraq - or face a Vietnam-style collapse in political and public support that could force the military into a hasty retreat.

The officers - combat veterans who are leading experts in counter-insurgency - are charged with implementing the “new way forward” strategy announced by president George Bush on January 10. The plan includes a controversial “surge” of 21,500 additional American troops to establish security in the Iraqi capital and Anbar province.

But the team, known as the “Baghdad brains trust” and ensconced in the heavily fortified Green Zone around the US embassy, is struggling to overcome a range of entrenched problems in what has become a race against time, said a former senior administration official familiar with their deliberations. “They know they are operating under a clock. They know they are going to hear a lot more talk in Washington about ‘Plan B’ by the autumn - meaning withdrawal. They know the next six-month period is their opportunity. And they say it’s getting harder every day,” the former official said.

Good thing we’re winning. It’s a one-source gripefest based on the following assumptions, several of which are highly debatable:

The main obstacles confronting Gen Petraeus’s team are:
· Insufficent numbers of troops on the ground
· A “disintegrating” international coalition
· An anticipated upsurge in violence in the south as the British leave
· Morale problems as casualties rise
· A failure of political will in Washington and/or Baghdad

More troops is a good idea, however. Dem Cong? You’re up.

Background on the brain trust. 

The team comprises an unusual mix of combat experience and high academic achievement. It includes Colonel Peter Mansoor, Gen Petraeus’s executive officer and a former armoured division commander who holds a PhD in the history of infantry; Col H R McMaster, author of a well-known critique of Vietnam and a seasoned counter-insurgency operations chief; Lt-Col David Kilcullen, a seconded Australian army officer and expert on Islamism; and Col Michael Meese, son of the former US attorney-general, Edwin Meese, who was a member of the ill-fated Iraq Study Group.

The Guardian’s source says the brainiacs are drinking lots of tea with Iraqis.  I hope they’re getting out of the Green Zone.  Maybe they should drink tea with some people like that sheikh in Anbar who wants America to win so Iraq will be rich, or Mohammed at Iraq The Model, who doesn’t mind being stuck in traffic at checkpoints and would like everyone to be patient.  Or this guy’s dad, who says Shiites want the surge to work.

Topics: Iraq, military

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:37 pm on Wednesday, February 28, 2007

5 Responses to “Six Months or Bust”

1. Bill's Bites Says:
   March 1st, 2007 at 2:00 am

   Six Months or Bust

   Six Months or Bust Jules Crittenden UK Guardian, citing “former senior administration official” says the “Baghdad brain trust” of officers advising Petraeus gives the US in Iraq six months before the wheels fall off the cart: An elite team of

2. Old War Dogs Says:
   March 1st, 2007 at 2:02 am

   Bill’s Nibbles // Open Post — 2007.03.01

   Some Bill’s Bites posts, some things I excerpted and linked but I’m sending you to the original post. I may rearrange the order of the items within this post as I add new things that I think belong above the

3. saltydog Says:
   March 1st, 2007 at 3:37 am

   I’m getting to the point where I wish like hell that all the so-called experts would just shut up for five full minutes and let people do their jobs without all the constant yammering.

4. The Moderate Voice » Blog Archive » 6 Months to Win Says:
   March 1st, 2007 at 7:19 am

   [...] considers the article to be a “one-source gripefest”. Posted on March 1, 2007 | Permalink | Categories Iraq| [...]

5. MrMartha Says:
   March 2nd, 2007 at 6:52 pm

   US armored divisions (indeed divisions of any kind) are commanded by a Major General (2 stars), *never* by a Colonel, who is 2 ranks lower. Whatever else his accomplishments are, Col Mansour has not commaned a division. If the Guardian gets basic military stuff wrong, then I have no reason to trust them on the more speculative material.

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