Surge into Sadr City
This push is coming, and pieces are starting to fall into place. As Stratfor notes below, it is key for a number of reasons. Sunni pols need to be placated. Al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army needs to be removed as a source of instability and Iranian meddling, but Baghdad’s Shiites also need to be protected. And containing and controlling this sprawl of 2 million is no easy task. How, and how peacefully all that happens remains to be seen.
Al-Maliki’s government needs to secure Sadr City now. If the Baghdad security plan cannot restore a semblance of order to the Iraqi capital, his government will continue to crumble. Al-Maliki is under pressure to show that his government has writ in all parts of the capital — especially areas controlled by fellow Shia in the al-Sadrite Bloc. But he cannot overtly and directly challenge the Mehdi Army; he depends on the al-Sadrites, who hold a majority of the ruling Shiite coalition’s seats in parliament, for the continuing existence of his government, and al-Sadr cannot be wiped out militarily without an unacceptable number of casualties.
Not sure I agree with the last. The continued pattern of detentions is a start to the non-combat takedown of the Mahdi Army … but a bigger problem is actually getting them to fight so they can be destroyed. As Stratfor may be suggesting, doing it without destroying Sadr City and killing a lot of civilians could also be a problem.
The al-Sadrites worry that the new security plan is actually an invasion of their turf by rival Shiite factions. The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and its Badr Organization have infiltrated the Iraqi security apparatus much more effectively than al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army, which has been branded a rogue militia group. So far, the al-Sadrite bloc of the Iraqi parliament has been able to wield its substantial influence over al-Maliki’s fragile government and prevent U.S. and Iraqi forces from operating in Sadr City in any meaningful way. While there have certainly been targeted raids, no permanent coalition presence has been established in the area.
Now the al-Sadrites face a choice: a destructive clash with a determined and reinforced U.S. military, or accommodation …
Al-Sadr … has been assured that his organization’s interests will be secure so long as it allows Iraqi forces to demonstrate that they have control over Sadr City. That al-Sadr and his commanders are out of sight underscores this understanding. Because al-Sadr’s only alternative is destruction, al-Maliki also is operating from a position of power. Al-Sadr and al-Maliki have agreed to allow each other to exist because they need one another.
… indications are that al-Sadr has — for now — chosen accommodation over destruction. There certainly will be clashes, but by challenging the U.S. military and Iraqi security forces, members of al-Sadr’s militia will identify themselves as rogue elements.
But the Sadr City operation will not bring true security to Baghdad. Only successful negotiations between the United States and Iran can do that. Iranian assistance is absolutely essential for a lasting solution. What al-Maliki can accomplish with the success of the Baghdad security plan is a consolidated Iraqi capital. The rest hinges on Washington and Tehran.
Given Iran’s history of mendacity and support for terrorism, its interest in dominating the region and seeing us humiliated, I don’t see any chance of successful negotiations with Iran that don’t begin with Iran’s influence in Iraq being forcefully excised and end with the mullahs over a barrel.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 12:13 pm on Friday, March 2, 2007
5 Responses to “Surge into Sadr City”
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March 2nd, 2007 at 2:53 pm
I agree with your last sentence, Jules. Iran simply won’t negotiate in good faith; they have not done so because it is not in their own interests.
And I say “own interests”, not “best interests”, because Iran’s goals center on domination of the Middle East, not co-existance. Regardless of what the Euroweenies and lefties think.
March 2nd, 2007 at 5:00 pm
Surge into Sadr City
Surge into Sadr CityJules Crittenden This push is coming, and pieces are starting to fall into place. As Stratfor notes below, it is key for a number of reasons. Sunni pols need to be placated. Al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army needs to
March 2nd, 2007 at 5:04 pm
Bill’s Nibbles // Open Post — 2007.03.02
Some Bill’s Bites posts, some things I excerpted and linked but I’m sending you to the original post. I may rearrange the order of the items within this post as I add new things that I think belong above the
March 2nd, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Any negotiating with Iran is folly; it has no good ends.
March 2nd, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Sadr does not have a majority of the seats in Parliament, in fact he onlt controls 27 out of 278. However, in a parliamentary system even that small number can translate into power.