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General Panic

UPDATE: Washington Post, citing senior US official, reports that Asgari has defected and is in Europe, cooperating with western intelligence agencies.  Which makes earlier speculation on the subject all the more relevant. Adds the interesting detail that Asgari  was deeply involved in building up Hezbollah.  

Stratfor.com on the raising of stakes and exposure of fakes. Meir Javedanfar at Pajamas Media on the panic in Teheran over a missing general. Meir first: 

The recent disappearance of Ali Reza Asgari, Iran’s former deputy defense minister who was on a visit to Istanbul has been a mystery for the past several days.

Now a report by the Arabic newspaper Al Sharq Al Wasat says that Asgari defected to the US after arriving in Istanbul from Damascus on February 7th.

Although the story has not been confirmed by any sovereign authority, it is already evident that the saga has created panic inside Ahmadinejad’s administration.

Soon after his disappearance was discovered, Iran dispatched an operations team to Ankara to help the Turkish authorities to look for him. At the same time, a public relations campaign was launched with Iranian minister Mottaki has doing his best to downplay Asgari’s importance as an official in order to reduce the damage to the Iranian government’s image.

He wasn’t fooling anyone. It is clear that Asgari is a man privy to numerous secrets which Iran desperately does not want revealed.

The rest here.

Meanwhile, at Strafor:

Iran appears to be operating on the assumption that Askari might have been compromised. While the true scope and pertinence of his knowledge is known only to Tehran (or was, prior to Feb. 7), the damage he could do to Iran is almost certainly significant. Reports that dozens of IRGC members working in cultural centers and embassies in the Arab world and Europe have been called back to Tehran, for fear that their identities will be disclosed, lend credence to the utility of the information Askari might offer. Some sources have characterized his possible defection as a “deathblow.”

While a kidnapped Askari would be of deep concern, an Askari who defected willingly would be a nightmare for Tehran … The U.S. intelligence community could already have been working him for months — or years.

Brushing aside the loss of someone like Askari simply might not be possible for Tehran. A defense establishment that has gone out of its way to appear threatening and capable could be exposed as a fake. Or even if it truly is dangerous and capable, its best laid battle plans and contingencies might now be in the hands of the Pentagon. From Iranian lines of communication to Hezbollah, to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s evacuation plans in the event of a U.S. attack, the possible revelations are numerous and highly sensitive.

Of course, Askari could be a double agent and Iran’s “concern” could be feigned … Whatever the case, the stakes in the covert war have almost certainly been raised.

The “senior US official”  cited by the the Washington Post has publicly put the screws on Asgari by putting out that he is cooperating.  No backing out and he’ll be reliant on western governments for his safety.  Unless of course he’s a double agent, in which case he’s through the looking glass. 

Topics: Iran

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:52 am on Wednesday, March 7, 2007

16 Responses to “General Panic”

1. disco » General Panic Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 10:25 am

   [...] Original post by Jules Crittenden [...]

2. saltydog Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 12:32 pm

   Let us hope he has defected. This might make the talks we aren’t having with Iran in Iraq very interesting indeed.

3. ravingcowboy Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 1:05 pm

   In conjunction with escalating inflation, marching school teachers and an outright revolt in the southeast this has got to be a major strain on Amadmaninajag. If his speeches at the UN were really heartfelt, and he truly believes he is issuing in “Allah’s Muslim Saint of WWIII” then he must be feeling a bit of a Job complex about now.

   Or he must feel like Bush. Bush turned a recession around, created tens of thousands of jobs and reduced taxes while more people than ever own their own homes, all while fighting a war where our enemies have sworn to Allah we will be erased from the Earth. Because of this he is a jerk.

   Of course Bush pretty much created a new welfare state with health care and set up signs along the border that read “You’re Still Welcome” in Spanish, but for the left these are his only two good points.

   Abadman is much more lefty friendly. He doesn’t believe in the evil Christian religion. He’s a greeny, researching nuclear tech and he promises to relieve the suffering of poor Muslims everywhere through a new kind of socialism that the left hasn’t quite grasped the substance of yet.

   One wonders if during the burning of Israel those people with the faded “Don’t Blame Me i voted for kerry” bumper stickers will have an epiphany or not.

4. RebeccaH Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 1:19 pm

   It’s interesting to speculate on the general’s reasons for defecting, if that’s what he did. Maybe he really feared that Ahmadinejad was going to force the US to invade Iran, which would be disastrous for Iran. Or maybe he knew of some imminent plan to attack Israel or the US with a nuke, and wanted to forestall the wiping of Iran from the earth forever. Maybe he’s been covertly working with the West for a long time and thought his cover was about to be blown. Maybe he just flat out hates the mullahs.

   I don’t understand the purpose of a kidnapping, unless it’s to throw the Iranians into a tizzy, and there are plenty of ways to do that. Kidnappings are notoriously bad PR, and a kidnapped general is more likely to lie than not.

5. Brian Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 2:41 pm

   I think I read that the IRGC (or elements of it) are responsible for watching over AQ members that have been “captured” in Iran. Perhaps the general is telling us a little about who has been captured and their comminications. Perhaps that is why we suddenly have Bin Ladin leads (per the Blotter). On the other hand, perhaps he is being held as a bargaining chip for the turnover of the AQ types held in Iran.

6. The_Real_JeffS Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 3:10 pm

   I doubt it’s a kidnapping.

   If he were kidnapped by a national government, the legal reprecussion within that government could be nasty. The general is not a terrorist, unless someone declared the Iranian military one vast terrorist group. This would be akin to someone kidnapping a member of the Joint Chief of Staff…..a very serious move to make.

   If he were kidnapped by a non-government entity (say, an Iranian liberation movement [and I have no idea if there is one, although I would not be surprised if there is one]), well, they would have to be really well resourced.

   Not only would that “non-government entity” be on the lam from the Turks and the Iranians (in and of itself a major problem), every other intelligence agency in the world would be after them…….either to help the Iranians, or to “rescue” the general for their own purposes.

   Plus, it’s a fair bet that this general would be under surveillance by major intelligence agencies whenever possible. Kidnapping the general under their eyes would be a bad move, unless the kidnappers were extremely innovative.

   No, I’m thinking that he defected, either legitimately, or as part of a “double agent” plot by Iran. I lean towards this being a legitimate defection, as Iran probably doesn’t need to use one of their top flag officers as a pawn in a disinformation campaign. I emphasize “probably” because it remains a distinct possibility, depending on how close to the edge Iran is in their international meddling.

   To whom the general defected is a different question all together. We’ll have to wait and see.

7. postpolitical » The Asgari Angle Round-Up Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 4:03 pm

   [...] Stratfor, by way of Jules Crittenden is reporting panic in the ranks of the IRGC, describing a Asgari turn as a potential “deathblow”: Iran appears to be operating on the assumption that Askari might have been compromised. While the true scope and pertinence of his knowledge is known only to Tehran (or was, prior to Feb. 7), the damage he could do to Iran is almost certainly significant. Reports that dozens of IRGC members working in cultural centers and embassies in the Arab world and Europe have been called back to Tehran, for fear that their identities will be disclosed, lend credence to the utility of the information Askari might offer. Some sources have characterized his possible defection as a “deathblow.” (Jules) [...]

8. The Apologist Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 5:24 pm

   It might be instructive to look back at what Hizb’allah has been doing, or rather not doing [re: the vaguely threatened coup], in Lebanon for the last month. Remember those stories about Nasrallah being depressed? Is this why he went so quiet?

   How does this reflect on Iran’s shorter than scheduled meeting with the Saudis? Did we tell Saudi Arabia we had this guy to prep them for their talks with the Iranians? Is that how the Saudi funded newspapers got this story in the first place?

   And what does this tell us about all those stories of dissension between the Supreme Council and Achmadinejad? How long have those stories been trickling out? Do they preceed the defection? Was the defection a consequence of the dissension? Or was the dissension a consequence of the defection?

   I expect a well written, well researched, and well thought out report tomorrow, Jules. Get to work. ;)

9. The Apologist Says:
   March 7th, 2007 at 5:55 pm

   Allah at Hot Air points out Ken Timmerman’s piece at Newsmax:

   http://newsmax.com/archives/articles/2007/3/7/142758.shtml?s=sr

   Lot’s of details I really hope are right. Very cool if this stuff is true. Wish there was some source on Iran I could really trust to only report what they knew to be true instead of what they hoped was true. Where’s Drudge on this?

10. Bill's Bites Says:
    March 7th, 2007 at 7:14 pm

    Top Iranian General Defects? — Update

    See previous: Top Iranian general dies? disappears? defects? kidnapped?Panic in Tehran PJM in Tel Aviv The disappearance and possible defection of former Iranian deputy defense minister Ali Reza Asgari has the Iranian government deeply worried — and …

11. The Apologist Says:
    March 7th, 2007 at 7:58 pm

    Also at Hot Air is a story on a fight between Assad and Xerxes Pt.2.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2007/03/07/heart-ache-assad-screams-at-ahmadinejad-in-phone-call-blowup/

    Might this be a part of the larger breakup coming here?

12. alphie Says:
    March 7th, 2007 at 9:16 pm

    I thought all the phony propaganda about Iraqi generals defecting and “greet us like liberators” before the Iraq war were more convincing that this tale.

    I guess the really good spinners have jumped ship from the sinking Bush admin. and we’re stuck with reruns.

13. RebeccaH Says:
    March 7th, 2007 at 9:57 pm

    You don’t really read the online news services, do you, Alf? Is it the big words?

14. saltydog Says:
    March 8th, 2007 at 2:23 am

    Rote script number 3. The scripts seem to be rather limited in number.

    The reactions from Iran as reported in the Washington Post article lead me to believe the defection is real. They range from “the guy isn’t really important,” to “he’s nuts,” to “he was kidnapped by the Great Satan…the Little Satan…both Satans.” In their panic, they just can’t seem to settle on any one excuse.

15. Asgari Cooperating According to U.S. Intelligence Official « Michael P.F. van der Galiën Says:
    March 8th, 2007 at 6:12 am

    [...] Great news - if this is not a defection I don’t know what is. That being said, it seems that he wasn’t involved in Iran’s nuclear program… he was however, deeply involved in building up Hezbollah. [...]

16. El Cid Says:
    March 8th, 2007 at 6:23 am

    NO, NO! A Zuniga administration would now be in the process of handing this General back to the Persians. That is what IT wants. You see this way no Persian secrets of how Persia wants to destroy Israel and throw this world into complete conflagration.THE ultimate Holocaust. Now that would please IT.

    World’s problem solved, Israel in cinders, the U.S. humbled and IT growing a beard, be IT a he or a she. Of course if IT is a she, the burka would hide the beard.

    HEYYYY!. I have an idea, why don’t we send Mr. Joe Plame over. He can solve this.

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