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Petrocash vs. Iran

Stratfor:

Iran’s prospects in Iraq and the spread of Shiite Islam in the region have put the Sunni states of the Persian Gulf on edge. Though the Gulf powers cannot rely on their own military strength to counter Iran’s expansion, they do have several tools at their disposal to help keep the Iranians at bay — the most important of which is cold, hard cash.   

Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s fall and the subsequent rise of Iraq’s Shiite majority represented the collapse of a strategic Sunni buffer state for the Sunni Arab world. This opening also provided Iran a golden opportunity to spread its influence into the heart of the Arab world by consolidating control over the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad. Though the United States has served as the main blocker to Iranian ambitions in Iraq, it has become increasingly clear that Washington is in no position to enforce a political resolution in Baghdad through military force.

With the Iraq war having passed the four-year mark, the Sunni states of the Persian Gulf are growing more and more alarmed at the thought of a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, which would leave Iran to pick up the pieces. These states cannot be assured that Iranian power in Iraq will not eventually seep through their own borders — especially considering that the Shia in Saudi Arabia inhabit the oil-rich Eastern Province, which borders Iraq and Persian Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain that have sizable Shiite populations of their own.

… The Arab Gulf states have a critical need to maintain a robust Sunni presence in Iraq to counter the country’s Shiite majority, which has gained control of the Iraqi government for the first time. While the Shiite political powers in Iraq are strengthened by well-trained Shiite militia groups trained and supplied by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Sunni insurgency in Iraq receives substantial funding and support from Iraq’s Arab neighbors. This strategy helps prevent the Shiite militants from running over the Sunni population in Iraq — at the cost of playing with fire. Saudi Arabia has a jihadist threat of its own to deal with, and sooner or later well-trained veterans from Iraq will be returning to the kingdom to fight.

… Iraqi and Saudi officials announced April 18 that the Saudi government has agreed to forgive 80 percent of the more than $15 billion that Iraq owes the kingdom. Riyadh is not under any illusions that its war-torn neighbor would be able to repay the debt any time soon, if at all, but this goodwill gesture toward the Shiite-dominated government will help the Saudis buy some much-needed influence in Baghdad. The Saudi government is well-aware that the Iraqi Shiite bloc does not see eye to eye on a number of issues with its patrons in Tehran, and hopes to exploit this rift by weaning the Shiite Arabs in Iraq away from Iran.

… The idea of using cash to pull Iran’s Shiite allies closer to the Arab fold has taken hold throughout the Arab Gulf region. The Alawite-Baathist regime in Syria — a close ally of Iran — stands to benefit a great deal from this strategy as literally hundreds of millions of Gulf dollars are now flowing into Syria in the form of foreign investment.

… Arab powers in the region face a reality in which Iran is recasting the region’s balance of power in favor of the Shia through its extended reach in Iraq and its nuclear ambitions. Though the Arab Gulf states face substantial limitations in their ability to suppress their historical Persian rival, the realization has sunk in that the United States will not be able to run the Iraq show on its own — meaning the Gulf Arab governments are going to have to put their petrodollars to the test.

What Stratfor doesn’t state is we aren’t necessarily going to like all the ways the Arabs do what they feel like they need to do. So maybe reducing the Iranian threat our way … building a free, stable Iraq, while robustly challenging Iran in the region … is in our national interest.   
 

Topics: Iran, saudi arabia

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:28 am on Thursday, April 26, 2007

3 Responses to “Petrocash vs. Iran”

1. J.M. Heinrichs Says:
   April 26th, 2007 at 2:13 pm

   I think they’re focussing too much on the confessional rivalry at the expence of the tribal and ethnic conflicts. One of the less-explored aspects of the long Iraq-Iran War is the lack of of a Sunni vs Shi’i influence on the combat operations.

   Cheers

2. RebeccaH Says:
   April 26th, 2007 at 4:01 pm

   Arab governments are treacherous and dictatorial. How are they any better alternative to Iran?

3. AW1 Tim Says:
   April 26th, 2007 at 10:34 pm

   Ah, but don’t discount that Arab/Persian rivalry. If we have any luck, they’ll kill eachother off and the rest of us can get on with illuminating the world through reasoned discourse and free will.

   I’ll sacrifice to Apollo this weekend with prayers for such a fate for them.

   Respects,

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