Dadullah Fallout
Stratfor sees a major blow to the Taliban in Dadullah’s death, the terrorist organization’s loss of brutally aggressive leadership, resulting suspicions and infighting. Media reports have his brother named to replace him and mixed takes on the degree of disruption:
Dadullah’s killing is the first major success for Kabul and NATO against the Pashtun jihadists since the resurgence of the Taliban shortly after the ouster of their regime in 2001. Until now, fighters and low- to mid-level leaders had been killed; this is the first time a major Taliban figure has been eliminated. He is known to have been a member of the 10-man Taliban leadership council. His death also will have serious implications for al Qaeda’s plans involving the Taliban.
Media reports based on information released by Afghan and NATO officials suggest Dadullah was killed during one of the many battles that have taken place between Taliban fighters and coalition troops in southern and eastern Afghanistan over the past several years. Given the operational security protocols of the Taliban and the stature of Dadullah, however, the official version does not add up. In other words, Afghan and NATO forces carried out the operation to take out Dadullah on the basis of specific human intelligence regarding his location …
Given the close ties between the Taliban and the Pakistani state and society, it is highly likely that Islamabad is the source of the intelligence on Dadullah. It should be noted that after several years of tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with Kabul claiming that Islamabad was backing the Taliban, the Pakistanis pledged to cooperate with the Afghans against the Taliban …
Though the Musharraf government’s decision to work with Kabul on containing the Taliban is fueled by its domestic concerns, Dadullah’s death has certain implications for the domestic situation in Afghanistan. Though the insurgency will continue, it has been dealt a significant blow — and the pace of the Taliban’s advance has likely been dampened. More important, the vacuum created by Dadullah’s death could trigger infighting between hard-liners linked to al Qaeda and more pragmatic elements.
The Taliban will be worried about how their organizational security net was penetrated and will be suspicious of many within their own ranks, which could lead to internal strife. Already those close to Omar and al Qaeda are concerned about the more pragmatic elements talking to the Karzai administration. There are signs that such elements, knowing Kabul would not strike a deal with them unless they parted ways with Omar and his allies, might have actually helped in the elimination of Dadullah; many within the movement actually did not approve of Dadullah’s harsh policies.
Middle East Times: Taliban spokesman says Mullah Omar has appointed Dadullah’s younger brother:
“This is not going to slow down the Taliban jihad [holy war],” another spokesman, Yousuf Ahmadi, said separately.
It will be interesting to see if that heals any potential rifts. AFP reports Dadullah’s death won’t be a major setback to the Taliban, citing an Afghan analyst at Kabul University, though Wadir Safi also says moderate elements desiring peace talks may speak up now. The same article has an Afghan government spokesman suggesting this will cause moderate elements to defect and rivalries tol be intensified, while a NATO spokesman says the Taliban will have a hard time replacing him. So I guess aside from those factors, it won’t be a major setback.
Topics: Afghanistan
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 7:59 am on Tuesday, May 15, 2007
One Response to “Dadullah Fallout”
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May 15th, 2007 at 11:34 am
“Taliban spokesman says Mullah Omar has appointed Dadullah’s younger brother”
Mullah Kidullah?