Ahmadinejad on a Leash?
Stratfor suggests pragmatic conservatives in the regime want A’jad bound and gagged in advance of U.S.-Iran talks:
Iran has increased the price of gasoline by 25 percent, from 30 cents to 38 cents per gallon, and is attempting to reduce subsidies, Fars News Agency reported on Wednesday.
… The move came as a surprise, particularly given that the government said May 20 it had no immediate plans to increase fuel prices. The price hike could stoke public ire, and it runs counter to the agenda of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose political future depends on his image as a populist leader championing the cause of the downtrodden.
One explanation for what appears a bizarre government decision is that it is part of a plan by the pragmatic conservatives to discredit Ahmadinejad and weaken the influence of his ultraconservative faction. Some might dismiss this as a conspiracy theory, but a number of other recent developments force us to consider that Ahmadinejad could be in serious political trouble at home. In fact, reports have circulated about major disagreements between the president and other senior Iranian officials, especially on foreign policy matters.
Saudi-owned daily newspaper Al Hayat reported May 21 that Iranian national security chief Ali Larijani has tendered his resignation on five separate occasions in recent months due to frustration over what he considers irresponsible statements and actions by Ahmadinejad … These disputes deal with how to conduct U.S.-Iranian negotiations over Iraq, which will move into the public arena May 28, and who should lead these talks for Tehran.
… Ahmadinejad wants to play a major role in talks with the United States and steer them in the direction preferred by his ultraconservative faction, which includes senior members of the Basij militia, the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, such as Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati, Abolghassem Khazali and his spiritual mentor, Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi. But the bulk of the establishment does not trust Ahmadinejad with foreign policy, and especially not with dealing with United States on Iraq.
Indeed, opposition to Ahmadinejad is so strong that, if it received the green light from Khamenei, parliament would waste little time impeaching him. However, Khamenei is not interested in inciting internal turmoil as Iran moves to shore up its influence in Iraq and engages in risky negotiations with Washington. While getting rid of Ahmadinejad might not be an option right now, the Iranian establishment is working to box in the maverick president.
… The Iranians are not attempting to hide these moves against Ahmadinejad. In fact, by leaking the details of efforts to undercut Ahmadinejad to the press, the Iranian establishment is sending a message to Washington that it is serious about pursuing a deal on Iraq and is cleaning house — and Tehran expects the Bush administration to do the same.
Stratfor has more faith in the ability of Iran to emerge as a reasonable partner in talks. I’d suggest whatever deal emerges, it will be window dressing on Iran’s desire to dominate Iraq and the region, and to see us humiliated and politically hamstrung.
Meanwhile, on the Iranian homefront.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:33 am on Saturday, May 26, 2007
3 Responses to “Ahmadinejad on a Leash?”
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May 26th, 2007 at 9:27 am
Bound, gagged, tied to a brick, and dropped in the Persian Gulf. If only.
May 26th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Jules,
There has always been a faction in Iran that wanted to normalize relations with the US. It is not like life in Iran has gotten better since they tossed the US to the curb…it has gotten worse.
Iran has done a pretty good job of destroying its relations with just about everyone that matters in the last 2 years.
May 26th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
I wonder how they’d like $3/gal if we were to knock out their gasoline import terminals. Iran imports the majority of its gasoline due to lack of refining capacity.