Understand More
Frederick Kagan attempts to help Congress get it. “Understanding Gen. Petraeus’ Strategy,” testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, June 27:
American military forces in Iraq are now entering the second phase of their kinetic operations even as political efforts continue on a separate but linked track. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and General David Petraeus are in the midst of a multi-faceted program that will not proceed in a linear way and will not generate clear and consistent metrics in all of its phases. The early signs are positive in a number of respects, although difficulties and challenges clearly remain. But it is too soon to evaluate the outcome of an operation that is just moving into the first of several phases intended to produce significant positive change in the situation overall.
It is now beyond question that the Bush Administration pursued a flawed approach to the war in Iraq from 2003 to 2007 …
For all of these reasons, the president changed his strategy profoundly in January 2007 … The scale of the problem required an increase in American forces in Iraq, which the president ordered in January, of around 40% (from the equivalent of 15 brigade combat teams to more than 21). It also required a multi-phased approach on both the military and the political side of the equation, which has been begun.
… It is an operation designed to set the preconditions for a successful clear-and-hold operation that will probably begin in late July or early August within Baghdad itself. That is the operation that is designed to bring security to Iraq’s capital in a lasting way that will create the space for political progress that we all desire.
The U.S. has not undertaken a multi-phased operation on such a large scale since 2003, and it is not surprising therefore that many commentators have become confused about how to evaluate what is going on and how to report it.
…
To say that the current plan has failed is simply incorrect. It might fail, of course, as any military/political plan might fail. Indications on the military side strongly suggest that success–in the form of dramatically reduced violence by the end of this year–is quite likely. Indications on the political side are more mixed, but are also less meaningful at this early stage before security has been established.
Great commanders in history have understood two critical truths: the situation in war is constantly changing, and decisions must take that change into account–and, therefore, that it is best to delay decisions until the last possible moment to ensure that they are made on the basis of the most recent and accurate understanding of the situation, rather than on preconceptions formed in different circumstances.
No kidding. But you’re going to need to read the whole thing.
Other required reading for people who give a damn here and here.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:48 am Comments (2) on Thursday, June 28, 2007
2 Responses to “Understand More”
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June 29th, 2007 at 11:29 am
I believe Congress does “get it”. They just don’t care. Iraq is a failure, the surge is a failure (even though it’s barely started and not nearly finished), the war on terror is a failure. Why? Because the Defeatocrats say so. Why do they say so? To satisfy their nutroots base and finagle a way back to total power, and to keep themselves and their heirs in office to infinity.
The ship of state needs drydock and thorough debarnacling.
June 29th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
“The ship of state needs drydock and thorough debarnacling.”
Here, here.