Welcome to “Later”
Stratfor sees it all coming to a head. Third Quarter Forecast 2007:
Our second quarter forecast began by declaring:
The second quarter of 2007 will brim with fury and froth as two states [Iran and Germany] attempt to challenge the geopolitical order imposed by others to stem their expansion, in hopes of regaining their long-lost position as major powers. Throughout the quarter, these two states will seek a louder voice and a stronger hand. The real conflicts, however, will come later.
That “later” is now.
The world has waited three years for Iran and the United States to strike a deal over the future of Iraq. At every stage of the talks, when either power believed it was in a weak position, it felt forced to generate a crisis in order to redefine negotiations. The United States hints that bombing Iran is an option, arrests several Iranian operatives somewhere or surges a few thousand more troops into Iraq; Iran waxes philosophic about its nuclear program, detains some British sailors or calls on the Mehdi Army to kill some Sunnis. Not to be left out, the Saudis and Syrians also stoke the jihadist fires in order to ensure their place at the table.
The Iranians and Americans are now closer than ever to reaching an agreement that would secure the Iranian border against a hypothetical Iraqi attack while preventing Iranian forces from ever crossing into Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Iran will have influence in Iraq, but the United States will ultimately be responsible for Iraq’s borders. The Shia will hold most of the power while the Sunnis will be guaranteed influence. The Kurds may well have to be satisfied with scraps. Who will patrol the cities likely will be left exclusively to the Iraqis themselves.
But despite the progress made in the second quarter, this deal is not yet final. And typically, in such “final negotiations” there is normally one final big crisis. The Middle East in the third quarter will be about that “final” crisis between Washington and Iran exploding against the backdrop of those who fear an Iranian-American rapprochement doing everything they can to scuttle the deal.
It will be easy to tell if this “crisis” is simply the concluding negotiating ploy or the final collapse of any Iranian-U.S. understanding. If it is the former, Iraq will become somewhat ordered near the quarter’s end as the edges of the deal begin to come into focus and the violence concentrates on reining in or destroying Sunni and Shiite factions opposed to the settlement. In contrast, if the deal fails utterly, Iraq will heat up to full boil — and probably stay like that for years.
Stratfor has placed more importance in talks with Iran and more confidence in the ability of the United States to arrive at a viable arrangement with Iran through negotiations than I do, though Stratfor obviously sees this as a tenuous path. I believe Iran’s behavior could be greatly improved by behavior could be greatly improved by the introduction of concrete consequences for its actions. That’s another kind of talk. Meanwhile, talk with words can continue, and probably with greater effect. In other business …
Regardless of how Iraq progresses, however, the United States must begin to turn its attention elsewhere.
Stratfor’s third quarter report zeroes in on our relationships with China, Russia, Europe and Africa. Why take my word for it? Go to Stratfor.com and try the guest pass.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:28 am on Saturday, July 14, 2007
6 Responses to “Welcome to “Later””
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July 14th, 2007 at 10:58 am
Huh? This reads like bad fiction Cindy Sheehan would write on an acid trip. I’m sorry, but I don’t get this at all. Isn’t Iran arming all factions in the conflict? Don’t they seek to stymie the US, not reach agreement with it? Isn’t that what why they’re trying to build an A-bomb–to gain legitimacy and standing, and to wipe Israel off the map?
Iraq attack Iran? That’s some hypothetical.
BTL
July 14th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
Iraq attack Iran? That’s some hypothetical.
Ummm, it happened in the recent past.
July 14th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
Yes, Iraq has attacked Iran before. It was a very different Iraq, however. I’m with B.L. on this one: That’s some hypothetical.
Those who have read my posts know that I think talking with Iran is pissing in the wind. Giving them time is foolish and dangerous.
July 14th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
And what happens if al-Qaeda manage to pull off a spectacular terrorist attack this summer? Still “talking” with a state that has no qualms about giving them money and weapons?
July 14th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
Are you sure they don’t have Iran and Iraq confused?
July 15th, 2007 at 7:48 am
And I don’t exactly see the Kurds putting up with “scraps”… especially when a good chunk of the oil is in their territory and they’ve done more to keep themselves put together.