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Pak Ops

US rumblings about attacking AQ in Pakistan, where containment isn’t working. Usually, this kind of talk prompts Pak action.   Paks distracted at present.

Stratfor:

U.S. forces on Monday moved a day closer to launching a major military operation into Pakistan — or more accurately, the Pakistani public and government came to realize that the United States was not kidding when, last week, it broached the topic of launching major operations into Pakistan.

The U.S. government — and Stratfor — remain convinced that the apex leaders of al Qaeda, those behind the 9/11 attacks, currently are hiding out in northwest Pakistan. And with the government of Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf on the ropes largely due to its own devices, the United States no longer feels the need to go around the issue. The U.S. message is fairly simple: Take care of the problem, or we will.

The message has definitely been received. The topic of a pending U.S. invasion was all the Pakistani press could discuss Monday, and the unfortunate Pakistani foreign ministry spokeswoman who was given the task of addressing the issue stumbled trying to hit that balance between bluster and calm.

U.S. foreign policy has become hopelessly bogged down in all things Iraq of late, with precious little bandwidth left for anything else. So it is no small accomplishment that the United States has finally broken through the noise and gotten the attention of the Pakistani government.

… It is not as if the United States is looking forward to a Pakistan operation. Any such operation would need to secure and segment a large tract of land before additional forces could come in and scour it bit by bit. This would not be a snatch and grab, but a major sweep through a large area. The United States would not be looking for an army, but instead for a handful of individuals that would include Osama bin Laden. That sort of operation would require thousands of troops — and is not something that could be done quickly and quietly. U.S. forces would swiftly find themselves in direct conflict with local tribes and perhaps even the Pakistani military — not to mention that any incursion into Pakistan would also energize the Taliban in Afghanistan to attack from behind. And if the Pakistani government did start to totter, Washington would have to make a very uncomfortable decision about what to do about the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.

Getting out would be even worse. The troops that would be used are all in southeast Afghanistan — part of an operation that is logistically possible without the go-ahead from Islamabad. So immediately after doing a tour of the wonders of northwest Pakistan, the Defense Department would then need to figure out how to get its people — and likely the other coalition forces still in Afghanistan — out of the landlocked South Asian state as well.

… Now the question will be whether the chaos that is Pakistani politics can solidify for an internal housecleaning that precludes the need for Washington to decide whether this was an ultimatum or a bluff.

Stratfor paints an almost Elphinstonian picture. I’m not sure operations would require such a large footprint.  However, it would enflame Pakistan and drive Pakistan farther into the hands of extremists, which could be significantly worse that Musharraf’s moderately cooperative benign dictatorship. Better to inspire Pak action, which while inconclusive has not been insignificant in the past six years. Ideal would be heavy Pak action as cover for covert US ops, something we never need to know about until you know who’s head is on a pike.

Topics: Pakistan, al qaeda

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:20 am on Tuesday, July 24, 2007

4 Responses to “Pak Ops”

1. 4iraqisfuture Says:
   July 24th, 2007 at 10:18 am

   As long as there is no undetonated ordinance labeled “made in USA” left lying around or any US casualties, then yes let’s do it. Have the Paks make a lot of noise near by as cover–good play Jules.

   The Paks are not up to it on there own. The ISI is in bed the extremists so they must be kept out of the loop.

2. Jeffersonian Says:
   July 24th, 2007 at 3:43 pm

   Five’ll get you ten this is a phantom op designed to flush Osama and Co. from their cozy hideouts.

3. Jeffersonian Says:
   July 24th, 2007 at 4:19 pm

   Related:

   Peaceful, innocent victim of Chimpy’s fascist concentration camp at Gitmoblows his own ass up with a grenade when cornered by Pakistani troops. I just know this poor lad was driven to suicide by the evil BushCo.

4. 4iraqisfuture Says:
   July 24th, 2007 at 8:40 pm

   That “phantom op” analysis never occurred to me. That’s very smart.

   With some high altitude drones we could catch some VIPs in like Zawahiri in a pick-up truck convoy. He’s just a hellfire away.

   Personally, I think OBL is dead or grievously ill. Why show 5 year old footage of him to inspire the troops? Some MSM pundits talk about the footage as though it is current or gloss over the dating. Beating Bush over the head is far more important than making note of an important discrepancy like this.

   And the victim of Chimpy’s Gitmo R&R…MSNBC had a picture of him up earlier today where if you didn’t see the ammo clips he looked like he could have been a very earthy but hulking man child with a bad attempt at a beard…perhaps selling tie dye T-shirts at a Grateful Dead concert. But, no, he chose to run with that Taliban crowd and their “jihad”. I tried to warn him. But he wouldn’t listen.

   If only it was the Grateful Dead.

   Kids these days.

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