Wind Chime
Hekmatyar announces ceasefire. As Stratfor notes below, this rat’s departure from the sinking ship is a political and military blip, more interesting for what it says about the Taliban:
Reuters, citing Afghan television, reported July 19 that Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of the Afghan insurgent group Hizb-i-Islami, has issued a signed statement saying his group will cease fighting U.S., NATO and Afghan government forces, and that it will resume political activities. If the statement is true — and not one invented by the Afghan government and foreign agents, as a purported spokesman for Hekmatyar later claimed — it indicates Hekmatyar is changing sides — again. Given the beating his Taliban and al Qaeda allies have been taking at the hands of U.S. and NATO forces, Hekmatyar could be trying to cut his losses and maneuver himself into a more advantageous position on Afghanistan’s political scene.
… rumors of changing alliances are often floated by both sides in Afghanistan in an effort to keep each other off balance. These factors, however, do not necessarily mean that Hekmatyar’s cease-fire statement is bogus.
… In recent months, the Taliban and their allies have been unable to dictate the tempo of combat in Afghanistan as they did in 2006, when NATO troops new to the country took over from more experienced U.S. units. Since then, NATO — particularly the Britons and Canadians in Helmand and Uruzgan provinces — has had more success at preventing insurgent attacks and destroying large Taliban formations. In response to this, the Taliban and their allies have been adopting tactics such as suicide bombings and assassination attempts, rather than traditional Afghan methods of fighting.
Hekmatyar has always been a survivor … Shifting allegiances has been one of his main methods of staying alive in the region’s tumultuous political and militant environment … Before this latest statement, his most recent shift in allegiance occurred when the Taliban and al Qaeda were increasing attacks against U.S., NATO and Afghan forces, and Hekmatyar was trying to take advantage of the situation. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been trying to reach out to the various insurgent factions in Afghanistan in an effort to divide them. Indeed, Hekmatyar apparently has been considering ending his alliance with the Taliban for some time.
Hekmatyar’s Hizb-i-Islami group, which operates on the Afghan-Pakistani border, is a minor player among Afghan militias and militant groups. Over the years, it has lost many leaders and members as a result of combat, shifting alliances and desertions. For Hekmatyar to remain a viable player among Afghanistan’s factions, he has to use his political — rather than his military — weight.
If Hekmatyar believes the insurgency is going badly at the moment, it would not be surprising to see him try to better position himself on the Afghan political scene — and declaring a cease-fire would be one way to go about it. In doing so, Hekmatyar would be giving Karzai little, since his group is not a major player. Given Karzai’s beleaguered position, however, any apparent defection from the insurgency is a welcome development.
A Hekmatyar shift is a public vote of no confidence in the beleaguered Taliban, and suggests strongly that the Karzai government, Afghan army and U.S./NATO forces — usually discussed in press reports in the context of how they are angering the locals by hitting the human shields Taliban “militants” use for cover/propaganda purposes — are winning.
Topics: Afghanistan
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:15 am Comments (0) on Tuesday, July 24, 2007
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