O Ye of Little Faith

Not sure how this made it into the New York Times.  Clearly someone didn’t get the memo. Iraq War critic Michael O’Hanlon likes what he’s seeing. On-again-off-again war fan Kenneth Pollack is on again: 

VIEWED from Iraq, where we just spent eight days meeting with American and Iraqi military and civilian personnel, the political debate in Washington is surreal. The Bush administration has over four years lost essentially all credibility. Yet now the administration’s critics, in part as a result, seem unaware of the significant changes taking place.

Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.

Well, I’d call that victory, but those two have a lot of harsh criticism over miserable handling they aren’t ready to let go of.  Anyway, sounds a lot better than genocide.

 In Ramadi, for example, we talked with an outstanding Marine captain whose company was living in harmony in a complex with a (largely Sunni) Iraqi police company and a (largely Shiite) Iraqi Army unit. He and his men had built an Arab-style living room, where he met with the local Sunni sheiks — all formerly allies of Al Qaeda and other jihadist groups — who were now competing to secure his friendship.

Hey, Ignatius says they just want guns. Meanwhile, O’Hanlon and Pollack take a stroll.

In Baghdad’s Ghazaliya neighborhood, which has seen some of the worst sectarian combat, we walked a street slowly coming back to life with stores and shoppers.

Lots of yuks when McCain and Lieberman did that.

But for now, things look much better than before. American advisers told us that many of the corrupt and sectarian Iraqi commanders who once infested the force have been removed. The American high command assesses that more than three-quarters of the Iraqi Army battalion commanders in Baghdad are now reliable partners (at least for as long as American forces remain in Iraq).

In addition, far more Iraqi units are well integrated in terms of ethnicity and religion. The Iraqi Army’s highly effective Third Infantry Division started out as overwhelmingly Kurdish in 2005. Today, it is 45 percent Shiite, 28 percent Kurdish, and 27 percent Sunni Arab.

These guys must be brainwashed like George Romney.  Or maybe not.  They just can’t bring themselves to commit.

In the end, the situation in Iraq remains grave. In particular, we still face huge hurdles on the political front. Iraqi politicians of all stripes continue to dawdle and maneuver for position against one another when major steps towards reconciliation — or at least accommodation — are needed. This cannot continue indefinitely. Otherwise, once we begin to downsize, important communities may not feel committed to the status quo, and Iraqi security forces may splinter along ethnic and religious lines.

How much longer should American troops keep fighting and dying to build a new Iraq while Iraqi leaders fail to do their part? And how much longer can we wear down our forces in this mission? These haunting questions underscore the reality that the surge cannot go on forever. But there is enough good happening on the battlefields of Iraq today that Congress should plan on sustaining the effort at least into 2008.

“Into” 2008? O’Hanlon and Pollack call this op-ed “A War We Just Might Win.” Not if you can’t make your mind up about it and commit to it, we won’t.

Ignatius is trying, too.  Ignatius, who in his column on how best to get out, says:

Extricating the U.S. safely from Iraq will be difficult under the best of circumstances. But it will be impossible if the necessary bargaining takes place against a backdrop of continual congressional demands for a faster withdrawal … Why should they listen to us today if we will be gone tomorrow?

Good point, and points for trying. It is good to see some of the best and brightest recognizing that we can win and we are winning. But they don’t seem to quite get it. It isn’t about how we manage to extricate gracefully.  It isn’t about whether Iraqi pols can agree on anything by September or March, any more than it’s about whether American pols are likely to agree on anything in that time frame.  It is about making it work, in Iraq and in the United States. It is not that we can win, which has been demonstrated. It is that we must win. Because the alternatives … the threat of genocide, the rise of Iran, the threat of spreading war, a new period of American humiliation and diminishment of American power … are not just unpalatable, but not an alternative. There is no room for equivocating on that.

Topics: Iraq, military

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:20 am on Monday, July 30, 2007

47 Responses to “O Ye of Little Faith”

  1. tanstaafl Says:

    Such optimism (albeit guarded) on the changing situation in Iraq appearing in the nytimes…the shock is almost too much to bear ! :-)

    Of course, Feingold, Reid, Schumer et al and etc. are heavily invested in the continuing saga of US failure and misery in Iraq.

  2. Wake up America Says:

    War Critic Sees Tide Turning in Iraq

    Read page #2 of the article to see for yourself, the progress, the challenges that still face our troops and the overwhelming feeling of succeeding…. at least until they look to Washington, the only place that still has not gotten the memo:

  3. Jeffersonian Says:

    Holy crap, was Bill Keller at the leg-waxing salon when this slipped onto the op-ed page? Every Democrat in Congress had to swallow hard reading it.

  4. Purple Avenger Says:

    “failure is an option” — Harry Reid

  5. OldManTyme Says:

    This isn’t any surprise to congress. Quite the contrary. They’ve known for some time despite their public protestations to the contrary that the surge is working and the implications for dem prospects in 2008 if the official reports on progress towards benchmarks in September is positive.

    Recall what the report will address. It isn’t just the surge that needs to show progress, but also the Iraqi government’s policies must show enough progress towards meeting the benchmarks set by the administration (agreed to but NOT set by the congress). If significant progress is made on both the surge and Iraqi government policies, then the force structure will stay in place until time to assess the next set of benchmarks. It isn’t, not was ever intended to be a yes or no, stay or run report. Their won’t be a planned reduction in force on the ground in Iraq unless the report is or can be cast as pessimistic on either or both the security situation and the Iraqi policy changes meeting benchmarks at surge force levels.

    This is why the left is getting shriller and more disparate as even the information sources they thought firmly in their pockets are being forced to acknowledge that the surge is working and the narrative is spinning out of their control. It’s easy enough to see this realization dawning on some of the more stable left sites and the increasing shrillness on the marching moron sites. I’ve been pointing this for a couple of weeks now as the basis for the cracking of the trademark superciliousness and increasing shrillness of the local moron, alphavictim.

    It’s also reflective of why congress has been trying to get something, anything, already in place to hobble the military before September when the official reports on benchmarks are made. We’re already seeing the rumblings coming from congress that they intend to change to field by already refusing to accept that September is and has always been intended to be a preliminary report on progress.

  6. alphie Says:

    If Michael E. O’Hanlon is a war “critic,” I’m George Bush’s hip flask.

    He’s a certified Chickenhawk.

  7. saltydog Says:

    Certified? By whom?

    Slinging slander can be dangerous. Since the president no longer drinks, and hasn’t for many years, his alleged hip flask is a fantasy–just like your alleged mind.

  8. saltydog Says:

    OldManTyme: you called it. Shrill as a sky rat (that’s a gull, for you landlubbers).

  9. alphie Says:

    See O’Hanlon’s laughable piece from five years ago about the Afghanistan invasion called, ready for it…”A Flawed Masterpiece.”

    http://www.brook.edu/views/articles/ohanlon/20020501.htm

  10. tanstaafl Says:

    Democrats (heavily invested in mining Iraq failure as one aspect of their goal of capturing the WH in ‘08…)…

    …would have a tough time (voluntarily) altering their chosen narrative despite any changing circumstances or “facts” on the ground in Iraq.

    Have I mentioned that (regardless of whatever stripe your politics may be) I find Congress’ relentless drumbeat of “negativity” on Iraq near treasonous ?

    (consider it mentioned)

  11. OldManTyme Says:

    ‘OldManTyme: you called it. Shrill as a sky rat (that’s a gull, for you landlubbers).’

    It’s easy. Witness jihad boy’s contribution here. He falls back on events and moonbat BDS references from years ago. He’ll trot out the Mission Accomplished aircraft carrier talking point next. He doesn’t get the intent of the surge, and doesn’t get why the narrative is slipping, and hasn’t any new scripting to counter. So…you get shrillness and desperation.

    He’s not unique by a long shot. Like I said in the comment above, on the reasonable dem sites, you can see the shift as they are, (reluctantly and not be any means widespread yet to be sure), starting to admit here and there that we ARE winning the battle in Iraq and, just maybe, it is important to the GWOT that we do. Look around. You’ll see the change in narrative and is isn’t just with the NYT. The marching moron lefty sites are harder to assess as echo chambers usually are. But even there, you can detect the shrillness and desperation as they spin the current state of affairs in Iraq.

    The danger is in successfully recasting what September’s report is supposed to mean in terms of how high the bar is set to declare the surge and the Iraqi policy changes on track. Even more dangerous is the attempt to capture public perceptions of what a successful reports means - that the surge force structure stays in place - into an indication that forces can be drawn down. If other words, the upside for the democrats being the same as if the surge were a failure in the first test by setting the stage to force it to fail the next test. That’s being attempted already in both congress and by the talking head’s crowd.

    What I see as at least encouraging if not a done deal, is that the MSM sees the surge as successful enough to be hedging their bets now. That’s the real sea change of the last 4-6 weeks or so and extremely dangerous to the dem leaderships’ game plan for 2008.

  12. tanstaafl Says:

    Some blogospherians (!) seem to become overnight ex-spurts on writers.

    A guy they probably haven’t heard of the day before suddenly becomes anathema and worthy of contempt.

    By the same token, a user friendly sewer rat (Joe Wilson comes to mind) is an automatic Godhead & saint who can do no wrong.

    Which phenomenon overall (while undoubtedly pleasing to folks like V. Lenin) doesn’t bode well for the health and future of the Republic.

  13. Davebo Says:

    A guy they probably haven’t heard of the day before suddenly becomes anathema and worthy of contempt.

    Who doesn’t know the author of Brookings Iraq Index Report?

    The question becomes, does O’Hanlon just assume nobody reads it? The latest is only 4 days old and, to say the least it’s data doesn’t jive with O’Hanlon’s Op Ed claims. Especially the whopper that civilian killings are down a third since the beginning of the surge.

    But hey, any port in a storm right?

  14. Jeffersonian Says:

    The question becomes, does O’Hanlon just assume nobody reads it? The latest is only 4 days old and, to say the least it’s data doesn’t jive with O’Hanlon’s Op Ed claims. Especially the whopper that civilian killings are down a third since the beginning of the surge.

    See the table and chart on Pp. 11. Civilian deaths were down dramatically in June, moved up again in July, but are still consideraby down from earlier this year.

  15. OldManTyme Says:

    “A guy they probably haven’t heard of the day before suddenly becomes anathema and worthy of contempt.

    By the same token, a user friendly sewer rat (Joe Wilson comes to mind) is an automatic Godhead & saint who can do no wrong. ”

    And…user friendly sewer rats who can do no wrong suddenly become anathema and worthy of contempt when they deviate from the narrative.

    All and all, the future of the republic probably won’t be much impacted by the traveling circus of the last 6 or so years. Opposite I think. The populace is too well educated and too successful to support to surrendering it’s independence of thought in the numbers required for irreparable harm to be done. If anything, it’s backfiring on the only segment of the left that was any real threat - transnational progressivism. They’re losing ground in the only two power groups they’ve historically been able to freely manipulate - academia and the UN. We just haven’t gotten to the tipping point yet.

    The marching morons really aren’t all that large a segment of the population. Vocal, and as such they do attract undue attention from people (prominently politicians and tranzis these days), more than willing to take advantage of useful fools when available whether . Losers so willing to be taken advantage of with a minimum of stroking have always been with us in some form or other and never seem to increase or decrease in relative numbers to any significant extent. As some mature out of the ranks, others buy in, but the relative numbers stay about the same.

    Good way to look at it is to appreciate the viewpoint of the mainstream American when he sees the protesting puppet heads, code pinks, and fat old hippies carrying vulgar signs.

  16. baldilocks Says:

    Believing in Victory

    According to Michael E. O’Hanlon and Kenneth M. Pollack, We might Win in Iraq.Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have

  17. saltydog Says:

    OldManTyme: Once again, I agree. One important consequence of the war has been that the roof has been ripped off the citadels of the tranzies. The consequences of the gross fallacies of PC and multiculturalism, which are the pillars built on Transnational Progressivism’s one-world premise, is there for all with two brain cells to see (assuming their rational faculty hasn’t been irretrievably maimed by their educators).

  18. Davebo Says:

    Jeffersonian

    The data on page 11 only deals with deaths associated with multiple fatalities by bombing only. In other words, only deaths by bombings, and only bombings that killed more than one Iraqi.

    The data I directed you to deals with all violent deaths.

    I find it odd that some would spend days “investigating” the claims of some anonymous soldier writing in TNR, even though the claims really mean nothing toward the big picture of what’s going on in Iraq.

    Yet blindly accept other claims that are much easier to assess. And apparantly even make excuses for the distortions once pointed out.

  19. alphie Says:

    Haha, salty,

    You sound like a preacher in some obscure church that has no followers.

    You’re just stringing words together now, aren’t you?

  20. Terrye Says:

    The really pathetic thing is that people like alphie are more concerned with success than failure.

    Considering how much the Iraqi people have suffered in the last 30 years I would think any decent human being would want to see success in that country. And considering how these people say they care about the deaths of American soldiers one might think they should hope those deaths were not in vain. But nooo, they hope for defeat, for us and the Iraqis.

    And Davebo, everyone has been saying violent deaths are down. I know that disappoints you, but hang in there, maybe there will be a big suicide bombing in the near future to get those numbers back up for you.

  21. Terrye Says:

    Oh but I forget, when it comes to the numbers Davebo probably does not see any difference between a five year old killed in a market place and an AlQaida terrorist killed in a gun battle.

  22. OldManTyme Says:

    Davebo is the sort I was talking about when I said this:

    The marching moron lefty sites are harder to assess as echo chambers usually are. But even there, you can detect the shrillness and desperation as they spin the current state of affairs in Iraq.

    He doesn’t see any distinction between the attempted spin of the discredited TNR story to discredit the US military and trying to spin the Iraqi death count to discredit the surge. Beyond that, he spins one as irrelevant for no better reason presented than because BS was called on it, and the other as relevant in minutia rather than indicative of trend.

    Sad, and we’re going to see this at all levels and from many camps of useful fools from the jihadis point of view for the next 6-8 weeks.

  23. Jeffersonian Says:

    The data on page 11 only deals with deaths associated with multiple fatalities by bombing only. In other words, only deaths by bombings, and only bombings that killed more than one Iraqi.

    The data I directed you to deals with all violent deaths.

    Your “data” are estimates made up by the Brookings authors. See the footnote:

    Figures for November and December 2006 come from estimates reported by the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq Human Rights Report covering these months. 2007 figures are estimates provided by the authors based on a steady rate of violent deaths occurring in January, followed by reduction for the month of February as a result of a drop in sectarian killings credited to Operation Fardh al-Qanoon.

  24. El Cid Says:

    baldilocks …THE baldilocks

    Oh my, I’m flushed with, well ummm, ermmm well just flushed. Pleasure to meet you fine Lady.

  25. tanstaafl Says:

    “As some mature out of the ranks, others buy in, but the relative numbers stay about the same.”

    You’re more optimistic than I am, Old Man Tyme.

    I who have watched formerly (supermarket ) tabloid journalism go more or less “mainstream” in my lifetYme.

    And (pessimistically enough) I would contend that the obligations, rights and responsibilities of living in “The Republic” are often not inculcated in the government schools, which frequently seem more intent on “obedience”. to the system..

  26. alphie Says:

    Terrye,

    I believe our troops in Iraq are adding to the misery of the Iraqi people, not lessening it.

    We’re spending $6000 a year per Iraqi to keep our troops there.

    The per capita income for the Iraqis is about $2000 a year.

    All things considered, I think they’d rather just take the cash.

  27. tanstaafl Says:

    “I believe our troops in Iraq are adding to the misery of the Iraqi people, not lessening it.”

    But you really have no idea, right ?

    Many “Iraqi” statements against a precipitous withdrawal of American troops notwithstanding.

  28. Bullshark Says:

    Well Alphie, I guess you could enlist and go to Iraq and confirm that belief. But then I believe you are just another chickenchicken.

  29. alphie Says:

    Or, Bull,

    We could simply let the Iraqi people vote on the issue of whether our troops should keep occupying their country or not.

  30. Bullshark Says:

    One Alphie’s occupation is another Bullshark’s Liberation. But, then if there was a vote you would be the one surprised. Guaranteed. BTDT.

  31. RebeccaH Says:

    Perhaps the NYT has seen the writing on the wall and will now gradually edge itself over into CYA mode.

    Middle Eastern politicians talk a lot of trash for the benefit of their populations, but the truth is, nobody in that region wants us out of Iraq except the Iranians and the Syrians. And as long as that holds true, we’ll stay there. And the longer we stay there, the more chance a free market has to develop, which means the inevitable death of overt hostilities. And there’s not a damn thing whiny little losers like Alpo can do about it.

  32. alphie Says:

    Judging by what most polls of Iraqis show, Bull, I’d be very surprised if the leaders of the Glourious Crusade ever let the Iraqis actually vote on this issue.

  33. Purple Avenger Says:

    Perhaps the NYT has seen the writing on the wall and will now gradually edge itself over into CYA mode.

    That is exactly what’s been happening over the past three months.

  34. The_Real_JeffS Says:

    Oddly enough, the NYT stock prices have been tanking of late, reaching their lows about the same time the CYA effort started.

    Perhaps capitalism does work, all be it in strange ways, hmmmmmm?

  35. An Op-Ed We Just Might Blog at Blog P.I. Says:

    [...] Jules Crittenden [...]

  36. OldManTyme Says:

    tanstaafl ,

    I am an eternal optimist as far as faith in the human intellect. However, this:

    “…I would contend that the obligations, rights and responsibilities of living in “The Republic” are often not inculcated in the government schools, which frequently seem more intent on “obedience”. to the system..”

    Is indeed a good point.

  37. the nailgun Says:

    To me the great mystery is why the Dems went so far over to the side of “all is lost” after confirming Petraeus. If they had stuck more to the middle they would have been perfectly positioned to say ” See we forced Bush to change direction and Generals and look at the good results already coming through” They could have claimed credit for all good developments in iraq and blamed all negatives on Bush’s past mistakes.
    I guess that is what happens when you put Pelosi and Reid in charge. Poetic justice?

    Can someone also fill this ignorant aussie in on what “CYA” stands for?

  38. saltydog Says:

    CYA = Cover your arse.

    Ever notice how Alf is so thick that he displays his ignorance with nary a blush? It’s enough to make me blush for him. His malevolence is something else, of course. I fear he would be that way even if he did have brains.

  39. alphie Says:

    The wingnut military “experts” are now saying the first four years in Iraq were a failure and a mistake, salty.

    Do you concur?

  40. the nailgun Says:

    Saltydog - thanks for that, I was trying to dream up which media organisation’s initials spelt CYA so maybe I was really off the mark or maybe not ?

  41. OldManTyme Says:

    “To me the great mystery is why the Dems went so far over to the side of “all is lost” after confirming Petraeus.”

    Their majority is razor thin and the shift to Dem control of congress mostly the electorate rejecting the business as usual republican congress. The marching morons would like to paint it as a rejection of a republican war and even though the marching moron vote is relatively and absolutely trivial except in a few concentrated areas, the dems need to use what power they have when they have it to try to get back into the White House in 2008.

    It’s early in the election cycle, but it appears that trying to appease and keep the marching moron vote on their side by casting Iraq as a failure riding that strategy to the White House may have been a bad gamble. Hanging their hats on that strategy is killing their credibility with an electorate who sees through the lie and doesn’t see defeatism and surrender of a few as representing their personal or the country’s interests. The fact that the MSM is reading the wind and jumping ship isn’t helping either.

  42. OldManTyme Says:

    ‘The wingnut military “experts” are now saying the first four years in Iraq were a failure and a mistake…’

    I keep pointing out to you that the narrative you useful fools have tried to sell the last 6 years is collapsing and new scripting is needed. Now, I grant you that looking around the useful fool sites doesn’t show any evidence of a coherent new script surfacing. But coherency was never the hallmark of the marching moron crowd and spouting the same old extremely stupid and extremely ignorant simplification hiding a lie isn’t working at any level worth mentioning, jihad boy.

  43. saltydog Says:

    I’ve agreed that there were serious mistakes being made within a couple of months of the invasion. Unlike you and the rest of the drones, however, I’ve managed to say so without ever showing disrespect for the president or the presidency, trying to overthrow the Constitution, spitting on this great country, or slandering the men and women who go into harms way to protect their families and their country and countrymen, including even drones like you. I am not anti-American, I love my country because I recognize that, for all her faults, she’s still better than any other country–and I’ve even been to other countries, so I know whereof I speak. The only thing wrong with her are the anti-human philosophies that have taken over and are trying to wipe out everything that makes her great. That you wallow in everything that would destroy her doesn’t make you superior, but an ant that follows thoughtlessly ideas you do not understand (assuming the best). You and your like don’t care what the consequences are for your country or others. You mouth the platitudes and bromides you’ve heard without respect to the truth. You don’t give a damn, Alphie, not for America, Americans, Iraqis, or Muslims in general, unless they are thugs and murderers–and I suspect that you don’t even give a damn about them, except as something to use as an excuse to spit on your betters. You stand for evil. You excuse evil. You extol evil. Whether you do so innocently, or out of ignorance, or out of childishness, or because you actually back the evil makes no difference. The death toll still rises regardless of your motive and you own some responsibility for that. That you see no difference between dying for something honorable and dying for evil makes you responsible.

  44. saltydog Says:

    Sorry for the rant, my fellows. I know it only feeds the hateful thing, but there are times when I reach a level of disgust that overflows the bounds of good-manners.

  45. Terrye Says:

    Alphie:

    An election? That is such a hoot. Left to the likes of you Alphie, the only election taking place in iraq would be the kind where Saddam the Sadist gets 100% of the vote.

  46. Davebo Says:

    Oh yeah, it’s all just made up data. Heck, even the Iraqi government is getting into the game.

    BAGHDAD — The number of Iraqi civilians killed in the country’s brutal civil conflict rose by more than one-third in July despite a five-month-old surge in US troop levels, government figures showed Wednesday.

    At least 1,652 civilians were killed in Iraq in July, 33 percent more than in the previous month, according to figures compiled by the Iraqi health, defense, and interior ministries

    http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070801-070035-3436r

    Oh well, at least I’ve learned how to parallel park a 1/30th scale model of a Bradley.

    You may now return to your regularly scheduled delusions.

  47. Davebo Says:

    “Your “data” are estimates made up by the Brookings authors. See the footnote:”

    Got it, O’Hanllon in the Times… Good!

    O’Hanlon from Brookings…. Bad…

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