Smell That?
Cordesman was on the same trip with O’Hanlon and Pollack that produced their half-hearted endorsement of the American effort in Iraq. Here’s his short take:
Everyone sees Iraq differently. As one leading US official in Iraq put it, “the current situation is like playing three dimensional chess in the dark while someone is shooting at you.” It is scarcely surprising that my perceptions of a recent trip to Iraq are different from that of two of my traveling companions and those of several other recent think tank travelers to the country.
From my perspective, the US now has only uncertain, high risk options in Iraq. It cannot dictate Iraq’s future, only influence it, and this presents serious problems at a time when the Iraqi political process has failed to move forward in reaching either a new consensus or some form of peaceful coexistence. It is Iraqis that will shape Iraq’s ability or inability to rise above its current sectarian and ethnic conflicts, to redefine Iraq’s politics and methods of governance, establish some level of stability and security, and move towards a path of economic recovery and development. So far, Iraq’s national government has failed to act at the rate necessary to move the country forward or give American military action political meaning.
… there is still a tenuous case for strategic patience in Iraq, and for timing reductions in US forces and aid to Iraqi progress rather than arbitrary dates and uncertain benchmarks. It recognizes that strategic patience is a high risk strategy, but it also describes positive trends in the fighting, and hints of future political progress.
Howbout that. Another harsh war critic who doesn’t particularly like the situation in Iraq, but likes the Congressional rush to abandonment even less. No wonder Congress was in such a hurry, repeatedly, to pull the rug out from under Petraeus. Political animals must smell something in the wind.
See what I mean? Weekly Standard:
Democratic leaders now acknowledge that the surge is working. The only catch is, they say it’s no surprise, they’ve known it for a while, and it’s nothing significant.
Senators Durbin and Casey are in Iraq, and were interviewed this morning by CNN’s John Roberts (video below). Senator Durbin made the first attempt to recognize the success of the surge and dismiss it in one breath:
SEN. DICK DURBIN: (Blah blah blah)
ROBERTS: (Blah blah blah?)
SEN. CASEY: (Blah blah, blah blah … blah blah blah)
Sorry, I don’t have a lot of time or space for that right now. If you actually think you might be surprised by anything they said, it’s here.
Good morning, Punditeers, always good to see you! Especially on such a happy occasion. Come on in, have some cake. Say hi to my cousin.
Hey, speaking of political things that smell, who cut the cheese? You know how a smell can remind you of something? But what? Here’s something else that just doesn’t pass the smell test. But Col. Kilgore would like this one: Smells like … victory. This, however, stinks to high heaven.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:28 am on Wednesday, August 8, 2007
7 Responses to “Smell That?”
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August 8th, 2007 at 10:29 am
only uncertain high risk options.
there is a window of opportunity that could significantly improve the chances of us success in iraq if the iraqi government acts upon it.
so far, iraq’s national government has failed to act.
a tenuous case for strategic patience.
high risk strategy.
the original strategy president bush announced in january would have failed if it had not been for the sunni tribal awakening. (in other words luck)
damn…congress is just intent on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
August 8th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
[...] Crittenden: Howbout that. Another harsh war critic who doesn’t particularly like the situation in Iraq, but [...]
August 8th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
The ultimate test of a democracy is whether they hold second elections and whether defeated politicians leave office peacefully. The people of Iraq hold incredibly powerful cards and if we haven’t pulled out by then, we may be pleasantly surprised at how many of the incompetent and unhelpful figures they retire.
But what do we know about Iraq polling? How happy are the Iraqi people with their current crew of political leaders? This isn’t a story that is dangerous to get. You just have to cut a check to local professionals and write a good script that gets you honest answers. So why do we seem to get so few stories on this theme?
Peaceful electoral turnover that results in better government in an arab country is the “aha” moment for Iraq. I hope we stick around long enough so that it ends up happening.
August 8th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
Speaking of our own politicians, it must be horribly uncomfortable when the rats don’t know whether to jump ship or stay aboard.
August 8th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
this isn’t a story that is dangerous to get?
right…just poll the 2 million refugees.
August 8th, 2007 at 2:54 pm
I think your suggestion that Durbin, Robers, Casey are saying that the surge is a success is a reach at best. After reading what they said I didn’t get that at all. What they said is that the surge does improve the small areas that it is applied but this really has no effect on the big picture. That can only be resolved politically. This is completely consistent with what they have always said about the surge. Even the people that look through rose colored glasses at what the surge has accomplished acknowledge that it is a small part of the total picure. As far as the Iraqi people voting etc….I’ve seen polls where 60%+ want the US to leave……Why doesn’t that vote count? The fact,of the matter,is Iraqis don’t have the same vision of their country as we do ..1000 surges won’t change that reality.
The point that Dems & Repubs are trying to make is that we won the war years ago…what we have done during the occupation does not help….the politicians blew the occupation long ago so the current situation has absolutely nothing to do with the supporting or not supporting the troups. All Murtha, Hagel, etc are saying is that it is time to stop using the troups to accomplish a mission that cannot be completed with troups. It’s like trying to cut a piece of wood with a hammer. Instead of trying to find a saw W’s
.approach is to hit the wood harder or us a larger hammer.
August 8th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
corran,
it’s dick’s approach. w is out riding his bike. or fishing. or cutting brush. or sumptin’