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Bone To Be Thrown

Petraeus expected to recommend troop pullbacks in Anbar, other successful areas. LA Times:   

WASHINGTON - Intent on demonstrating progress in Iraq, the top U.S. general there is expected by Bush administration officials to recommend removing American troops soon from several areas where commanders believe security has improved, possibly including Al Anbar province.

According to the officials, Gen. David H. Petraeus is expected to propose the partial pullback in his September status report to Congress, when both the war’s critics and supporters plan to reassess its course. Administration officials who support the current troop levels hope Petraeus’ recommendations will persuade Congress to reject pressure for a major U.S. withdrawal.

The expected recommendation would authorize U.S. commanders to withdraw troops from places that have become less violent and turn over security responsibilities to Iraqi forces.

But it does not necessarily follow that Petraeus would call for reducing the overall number of troops in the country. Instead, he could move them to another hot spot, or use them to create a reserve force to counter any rise in violence.

“That is the form of the recommendation we are anticipating him to come back with,” a senior administration official said. But referring to the redeployment options, the official added, “I just don’t know which of those categories he is going to be in.”

Shifting some combat forces is probably a good idea, though in Anbar, maintaining America’s position as big tribal sheik with power and money is also as important as maintaining sufficient force to prevent al-Qaeda resurgence and use of the territory for infiltration and transit. 

Telling Congress that you can and want to drawdown should be a two-fer.  It’s a sign of progress and indicates a willingness to drawdown as able, as long as it is not accompanied by any kind of requirement to do so without regard for conditions on the ground.  But the LA Times, noting that past pullouts have created a vacuum to be exploited by the enemy, highlights the probable, hypocritical talking-points reaction to this kind of gesture.  Watch for withdrawal enthusiasts to denounce any partial drawdown on grounds that Iraqi forces aren’t ready, and then go on to proclaim the cause hopeless, and demand total abandonment.  

Petraeus has been keeping a “close hold” on the recommendations he intends to deliver next month, according to a senior military officer in Baghdad. But the officer said Petraeus wanted to ensure that any moves he made did not cause violence to flare up again.

“He doesn’t want to lose the gains we have made,” said the military officer who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity because the report is still being developed.

Some officials say they expect Petraeus to push for maintaining the current force level for at least six additional months to build upon security improvements in Baghdad.

…

The senior officer in Baghdad said the military was still debating whether Petraeus should make his detailed strategy recommendations to Congress in an open or closed session.

The officer said that though Petraeus would discuss his broad recommendation for adjusting operations, he would avoid detailed public discussion of where he intended to reposition specific brigades.

The officer said Petraeus would not go deeply into detail in an open session.

“The future plan, how he thinks we can move forward, you really do not want to broadcast that to the world,” he said.

Administration and military officials acknowledge that the September report will not show any significant progress on the political benchmarks laid out by Congress. How to deal in the report with the lack of national reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sects has created some tension within the White House.

If broadcasting plans to the enemy is a concern, allow me to recommend telling Congress as little as possible, whether in open or closed session. Regarding the latter point on lack of significiant political progress, allow me to recommend that Democratic Congressional leadership but subtly remind of its own inability to make any significent progress on its own political benchmarks.

Welcome, Punditeers, etal! Always good to see you.  Come on in. Think you’re a genius?  Try your wits on this new, improved Rubik’s cube.  Want some fries with that? Hey, which genius finally figured out the IRG is a terrorist organization?  And which genius might find herself hoisted by her own petard? Headsup to all bargain-basement brainiacs: that Wikipedia entry you just cited may have been edited by a politically biased ignoramus. Too smart to be afraid of ghosts? You haven’t met these ones yet. Never mind the rampaging elephants. But then, for most of us, valor isn’t part of the job description.

Topics: Iraq, military, pols

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:12 am on Wednesday, August 15, 2007

3 Responses to “Bone To Be Thrown”

1. Jay Reding.com - Petraeus’ Pullback? Says:
   August 15th, 2007 at 11:13 am

   [...] Jules Crittenden offers the likely Democratic argument: Watch for withdrawal enthusiasts to denounce any partial drawdown on grounds that Iraqi forces [...]

2. Sister Toldjah » LAT: Petraeus is ‘expected to propose a partial pullback’ in his September briefing Says:
   August 15th, 2007 at 3:10 pm

   [...] Jules Crittenden on the possibility of a partial pullback: Telling Congress that you can and want to drawdown should be a two-fer. It’s a sign of progress and indicates a willingness to drawdown as able, as long as it is not accompanied by any kind of requirement to do so without regard for conditions on the ground. But the LA Times, noting that past pullouts have created a vacuum to be exploited by the enemy, highlights the probable, hypocritical talking-points reaction to this kind of gesture. Watch for withdrawal enthusiasts to denounce any partial drawdown on grounds that Iraqi forces aren’t ready, and then go on to proclaim the cause hopeless, and demand total abandonment. [...]

3. Vanguard of the Commentariat Says:
   August 15th, 2007 at 3:21 pm

   Whatever goalpost Gen Petraeus is driving for is the wrong one, because it will certainly be moved. Besides, as former Lt. and super genius Jon Cary noted, it Gen Petraeus had any brains, he would not be stuk in Irak.

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