Little Tet
Al-Qaeda announces its Ramadan offensive. No indication as yet al-Qaeda is capable of a Tet, but an indication they may be trying.  Â
The great al-Qaeda Ramadan offensive is coming a little late, and thus far too little. It needed to be timed to embarrass Petraeus, and provide ammunition for al-Qaeda’s would-be enablers in Congress. So far, a few attacks repelled by villagers and Iraqi forces, and sporadic car bombings only serve to underscore al-Qaeda’s weakness and politically could be counterproductive.
The Tet Offensive, Vietnamese New Year 1968, was a massive onslaught that failed militarily, as tens of thousands of Viet Cong and NVA regulars were slaughtered, dealing a devastating setback to Communist forces. But Tet was an utter success. Because the temporary taking of the U.S. Embassy in Saigon, and the days of seige around the country and the monthlong battle of Hue shocked Americans into thinking it was a lost cause. So, not a single Communist guerrilla or North Vietnamese soldier was wasted.Â
Al-Qaeda’s Tet is off to a slow start, and while we may well see more attacks on lightly armed villagers and bombs in marketplaces … maybe even the fluke of successful blows at some high-value command or political target, it is highly unlikely al-Qaeda is capable of anything approaching the shock of Tet. Al-Qaeda instead arrives at Ramadan severely diminished and scattered by the coalition’s spring and summer offensives, a success tragically underscored by al-Qaeda’s murderous strike on the Yazdis in new, distant territory.
Ironically, Al-Qaeda in the runup to Ramadan 2007 might have been seen to be well ahead of Hanoi pre-Tet 1968 in its campaign to collapse America’s weak political flanks. But with the turning of the Sunni tribes and Shiite tribes now now following suit, with the turning of some Democrats and established impotence of the others, it would appear that al-Qaeda’s Vietnam moment has passed.Â
One potential complication. Will Iran and the extremist Shiite militias, now under threat from the world and the United States in the case of Iran, and from the Shiite tribes in Iraq, attempt their own Ramadan offensive to coincide with al-Qaeda’s?Â
That could be a wonderful opportunity to kill a lot of them, the opportunity that was passed up in Najaf 2004, and a dangerous tack for Iran, whose cynical, murderous game of support for terrorism and quest for nuclear weapons is wearing thin even in Europe. Such a move may well backfire within Iraq as well, providing momentum for the turning of Shiite tribes that is already beginning, and given the new clarity with which the conflict is being viewed of some of Iraq’s traditional power bases, potentially creating more Sunni-Shiite unity than it destroys.
A Iraqi Tet in 2007, lacking the wherewithal to succeed militarily, may have already failed politically.  Instead of creating the illusion of American military weakness, it is more likely to underscore coalition strength.Â
Jawa cruelly mocks al-Qaeda:Â Hammer Time!Â
Barnett at Hewitt does the numbers. They’re dropping.
Meanwhile, underscoring the point on the homefront, Roger L. Simon notes:
The propagandists at Xinhua say there were “tens of thousands” at the DC antiwar demonstration yesterday. The VOA says more like five thousand. However many people you agree showed up - the AP says “several” thousand - the number is pretty pathetic. In a country of three hundred million, if you can’t muster up even fifty thousand people against a war, the event is basically meaningless, barely even news.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 7:32 am on Monday, September 17, 2007
13 Responses to “Little Tet”
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September 17th, 2007 at 8:19 am
Ooops thought you wrote Little Tit. There again that would sum up Sadr.
September 17th, 2007 at 8:37 am
I can almost hear Murfa, Reid, Pelosi and the gang praying to Satan for some serious attacks. How these people can generate more propaganda than Goebbels and still call themselves Americans may not be the ultimate hypocrisy, but it’s in the Top 10. The fact that ½ of America supports, let alone tolerates this aroma of treason is even more disturbing. I feel like I’m watching the fall of Rome.
September 17th, 2007 at 11:08 am
Web Reconnaissance for 09/17/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often
September 17th, 2007 at 11:41 am
sigh
Ramadan again. One of the worst ideas ever conceived by the God-bothered.
September 17th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
[...] Sep 17th, 2007 by Michael van der Galiën Is Al Qaeda trying to copy / repeat what happened during the Vietnam War? If so, how’s it going with their plans? Jules Crittenden has more. [...]
September 17th, 2007 at 12:42 pm
“What excellent fools religion makes of men!”
- Sejanus (Sejanus, His Fall, Ben Jonson)
September 17th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
No matter what the Al Qaeda “Tet” effort brings to the party or manages to accomplish, they will always have a shot at success if they have the western media on their side.
September 17th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
I’m with you, Texas Bob, I keep on wondering when the Dhimmicrats will pull out their fiddles.
September 17th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
The anti-war types don’t need a Tet. They don’t need actual events at all. Lately, they’re busily spreading around a pseudo-Lancet extrapolation claiming that 1 Million Iraqis have died since the invasion.
Soon, they’ll have convinced themselves and some significant percentage of their media stooges that there’s no one left alive in Iraq at all, other than US troops that should come home lest zombies arise and strike them.
September 17th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
Jules,
The VC never temporarely overtook the embassy. That is one of many Vietnam myths. Only two vc sappers got as far as the courtyard before they were killed. Not one vc set foot in the embassy.
Do you know how many set piece battles we lost in Vietnam?
September 17th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
[...] Little Tet - Jules Crittenden [...]
September 18th, 2007 at 12:58 am
Texas Bob and TRJ, I understand the feeling. As hard as I try, I can’t shake the feeling that we are further down the road to decline than I had thought. (More than the reaction to the war) I’ve felt that way ever since Jon Carry got so close to the presidency. How did such a thing happen? How could it? There are valid reasons a person might be unhappy about the way the war is being fought. There are no valid reasons for that piece of fluff to garner the votes he did, no matter what. That so many couldn’t, wouldn’t, or otherwise didn’t see him for the zero he is tells me that we’ve gone further down the road to ruin than I thought.
The danger with decline is that it is usually a slow, drawn out process that usually escapes the notice of most people. The majority of Romans didn’t know they were in mortal danger. If you don’t recognize what is happening, how do you define the problems and do what is necessary to rectify the situation?
I am feeling better about what is happening among the Iraqis.
October 8th, 2007 at 6:55 pm
[...] Actually first I’d like to recommend reading a good post by Jules Crittenden about the flawed timing of this “Little Tet. [...]