Unknown Unknowns
A conservative Iranian newspaper close to Khamenei hints that the United States cannot harm Iran’s nuke program because it only knows what Iran wants it to know. MEMRI:
”Is a new war on the way?… It seems that there is a need to precisely clarify, once and for all, why [the U.S.] cannot launch a war on Iran… All the questions and intelligence ambiguities that are facing the U.S…. make any discussion of [the U.S.'s] preparedness for an attack on Iran a joke, at best.
“The important questions are: How wide is the gap between the exact point to which Iran’s nuclear program has progressed and what the Americans perceive to be the point of no return[?]… The intelligence that the West currently has on Iran’s nuclear program is limited to the sites accessible to IAEA inspectors, and more than that they do not know… Is the [total] number of Iran’s nuclear facilities [really] limited to those facilities that have been reported - so that America can be certain that by destroying them it will destroy Iran’s entire nuclear program, or at least set it back for a very long time?…
Or is the program at such an advanced state and so well hidden we dare not attack? I think that’s the impression they are trying to create. That reminds me of something someone used to say. Here it is:
There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.
So what would Donald Rumsfeld do? Better safe than sorry, I believe. Given that the leading powers of the world are convinced Iran is developing nukes, and leading Iranian newspapers, not to mention Iran’s leaders, range from coy and clever on the issue, here’s a compromise. Let’s destroy what we know about, plus anything we even think might be a problem, and if anything else pokes its nose out, destroy that too.
Meanwhile, this threat to Iran’s neighbors:
“Iran declares that it will consider to be an enemy any country that places its territory at the disposal of the Americans so that they can attack [Iran]… Iran’s strategic facilities are scattered across the breadth of Iran, and are completely camouflaged… “
Topics: Iran
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 4:40 pm on Friday, September 28, 2007
10 Responses to “Unknown Unknowns”
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September 28th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
Too bad we can’t harness the power of blowhards. We’d never have to build another nuclear power plant again.
September 28th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
They sound worried. Good.
September 28th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
The west ? America ?
The Israelis will not be messing around waiting for allies, permission, whatever.
Tel Aviv is less than 1000 miles from Tehran.
Anyway, “the Iranians” have a lot of stuff underground and have been working very hard fortifying various installations.
Maybe Allah will send one of his common Iranian earthquakes.
September 28th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
salty, it’s at least partly speculation, but this is why they’re worried.
September 28th, 2007 at 9:09 pm
That is at the very least some welcome alternative reading, TRJS.
September 28th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Nuclear operations glow in the dark. They are not that hard to find.
September 29th, 2007 at 1:55 am
TRJ, I read that this afternoon. It sounds good to me! I wish it were capable of being more than speculation. I’ve never heard of the guy, so I have no idea of his credibility.
September 29th, 2007 at 3:13 am
“The intelligence that the West currently has on Iran’s nuclear program is limited to the sites accessible to IAEA inspectors, and more than that they do not know… ”
Wishin’ and Hopin’
and Thinkin’ and Prayin’
and Plannin’ and Dreamin’
Casting spells! Buying charms!
You won’t get to our arms….
September 29th, 2007 at 4:36 pm
You know, Saddam tried playing this game. We all know how that worked out for him.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:45 am
I’d say that one Trident load on the major population centers will be more that enough to ensure that “America can be certain that by destroying them it will destroy Iran’s entire nuclear program, or at least set it back for a very long time.”
We didn’t start this cr*p, but we can finish it.