Inconvenient Truthtelling
Washington Post editorial notes the intense focus on Blackwater and a handful of possibly unnecessary deaths, and the passing attention to the plummeting death rate:
NEWS COVERAGE and debate about Iraq during the past couple of weeks have centered on the alleged abuses of private security firms like Blackwater USA. Getting such firms into a legal regime is vital, as we’ve said. But meanwhile, some seemingly important facts about the main subject of discussion last month — whether there has been a decrease in violence in Iraq — have gotten relatively little attention. A congressional study and several news stories in September questioned reports by the U.S. military that casualties were down. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), challenging the testimony of Gen. David H. Petraeus, asserted that “civilian deaths have risen” during this year’s surge of American forces.
A month later, there isn’t much room for such debate, at least about the latest figures. In September, Iraqi civilian deaths were down 52 percent from August and 77 percent from September 2006, according to the Web site icasualties.org. The Iraqi Health Ministry and the Associated Press reported similar results. U.S. soldiers killed in action numbered 43 — down 43 percent from August and 64 percent from May, which had the highest monthly figure so far this year. The American combat death total was the lowest since July 2006 and was one of the five lowest monthly counts since the insurgency in Iraq took off in April 2004.
How could it be that everyone is suddenly uninterested in all but a handful of possibly wrongful deaths in Iraq, when the rate of purposeful murders that so fascinated them is plummeting? It’s a mystery.
It’s true that the plane that lands safely is not news. Though arguably, if all the other inbound flights were crashing, a spate of easy touchdowns should be remarkable. But there is this curious other thing. The handful of Blackwater-related deaths would appear to be fascinating because they happen under a general American aegis and suggest American wrongdoing. Terror campaigns that have murdered thousands have been reported not as murderous efforts to undermine the Americans, manipulate the population and change the course of events, not as the work of murderers who must be thwarted, but as evidence of American failure, underscoring American futility and the desireability of America quitting Iraq as soon as possible.
Theoretically, the drop in deaths should mean the opposite. This rare example of clarity notwithstanding, don’t expect your major news organizations to draw that conclusion any time soon.
During the first 12 days of October the death rates of Iraqis and Americans fell still further. So far during the Muslim month of Ramadan, which began Sept. 13 and ends this weekend, 36 U.S. soldiers have been reported as killed in hostile actions. That is remarkable given that the surge has deployed more American troops in more dangerous places and that in the past al-Qaeda has staged major offensives during Ramadan. Last year, at least 97 American troops died in combat during Ramadan. Al-Qaeda tried to step up attacks this year, U.S. commanders say — so far, with stunningly little success.
That hasn’t stopped certain news organizations from heralding each bomb as evidence of a Ramadan offensive, though in their relatively scant numbers the attacks are in fact evidence of the failure of al-Qaeda to deliver on its threat of a Ramadan offensive.
The trend could change quickly and tragically, of course. Casualties have dropped in the past for a few weeks only to spike again. There are, however, plausible reasons for a decrease in violence. Sunni tribes in Anbar province that once fueled the insurgency have switched sides and declared war on al-Qaeda. The radical Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr ordered a cease-fire last month by his Mahdi Army. Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the top day-to-day commander in Iraq, says al-Qaeda’s sanctuaries have been reduced 60 to 70 percent by the surge.
It’s a good policy in opinion-making to leave yourself an out. The trend could change quickly and tragically. I don’t think, absent a major push by Iran, that it will. Even that might not work, and could backfire badly on Iran. But Iran is not to be underestimated. Iran must not much like what it sees.
The Washington Post editorial board gives itself more wiggle room:
This doesn’t necessarily mean the war is being won. U.S. military commanders have said that no reduction in violence will be sustainable unless Iraqis reach political solutions — and there has been little progress on that front. Nevertheless, it’s looking more and more as though those in and outside of Congress who last month were assailing Gen. Petraeus’s credibility and insisting that there was no letup in Iraq’s bloodshed were — to put it simply — wrong.
And there we get to the nub of the matter. Thanks, WaPo. As a tabloid newspaperman engaged in daily competition with a pompous broadsheet, I fully appreciate the dig at your primary competitor on the national stage, and its cheap, backseat date with MoveOn. Nicely done. However, as enjoyable as that is, this is a matter beyond petty rivalries. It is only sweeter when you get to exercise your petty rivalries in a state of absolute and unassailable moral righteousness. The news organizations, the political groups and the politicians that assailed Gen. Petraeus’s character and credibility should be ashamed of themselves, and should be making amends right now. What he said had been true before he said it, was true when he said it, and continues to be true. The war, despite WaPo’s caution, is in fact being won, and is as it has always been, ours to lose.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:01 pm on Sunday, October 14, 2007
3 Responses to “Inconvenient Truthtelling”
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October 14th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
no letup in Iraq’s bloodshed…simply wrong
That’s a pretty rough shot at Hillary. I can’t be reading that right. Must have gotten a bad load of acid or something. The WaPo journalistic deadenders don’t do that.
October 15th, 2007 at 12:02 am
They give only grudgingly, though. One gets the feeling that there’s no joy at WaPo over the news. Course, since they don’t think of themselves as Americans, but “citizens of the world,” I suppose it would be in bad taste to be glad the U.S. forces are finally making progress, and that the hated surge is a success.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:35 am
We must not forget the Defeatocrats in Congress who are perfectly capable of cooking up some scheme to make an improving situation worse.