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Success < Victory

Washington Post reports the military is ready to declare victory over al-Qaeda in Iraq, but: 

The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.

But as the White House and its military commanders plan the next phase of the war, other officials have cautioned against taking what they see as a premature step that could create strategic and political difficulties for the United States. Such a declaration could fuel criticism that the Iraq conflict has become a civil war in which U.S. combat forces should not be involved. At the same time, the intelligence community, and some in the military itself, worry about underestimating an enemy that has shown great resilience in the past.

“I think it would be premature at this point,” a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains “the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks.”

Nothing would be better for AQ to hand it a victory they can overturn.  A greater concern though might be handing Iran a victory it can overturn, goading Sunnis back into war much as al-Qaeda goaded Shiites into war in February 2006, to the end of humiliating the United States and forcing a withdrawal. But here’s some of the good news:

There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group’s signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a “cascade effect,” leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The deployment of more U.S. and Iraqi forces into AQI strongholds in Anbar province and the Baghdad area, as well as the recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters to combat AQI operatives in those locations, has helped to deprive the militants of a secure base of operations, U.S. military officials said. “They are less and less coordinated, more and more fragmented,” Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq, said recently. Describing frayed support structures and supply lines, Odierno estimated that the group’s capabilities have been “degraded” by 60 to 70 percent since the beginning of the year.

And the cautionary note:

…  Despite the increased killings and captures of AQI members, Odierno said, “it only takes three people” to construct and detonate a suicide car bomb that can “kill thousands.” The goal, he said, is to make each attack less effective and lengthen the periods between them.

Topics: Iraq, al qaeda, military

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:11 am on Monday, October 15, 2007

4 Responses to “Success < Victory”

1. The Thunder Run Says:
   October 15th, 2007 at 11:15 am

   Web Reconnaissance for 10/15/2007

   A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.

2. RebeccaH Says:
   October 15th, 2007 at 11:16 am

   If nothing else, a declaration of victory would unleash a barrage of “mission accomplished” catcalls in the legacy media. Not a good tactic as we draw closer to the 08 election. I don’t think it’s a good idea to declare victory over AQ until we’ve broken it everywhere.

3. Vanguard of the Commentariat Says:
   October 15th, 2007 at 2:44 pm

   This is a victory that can never be declared. The libs’ misunderstanding/misrepresentation of Bush’s congratulations for a carrier that had been to sea for 10 months will see to that.

   Only Nixon could go to China, so maybe only Hillary can declare victory. That would be fun if for no other reason than the delicious irony of hearing her say “we” won.

4. Victory! « Tai-Chi Policy Says:
   October 15th, 2007 at 4:23 pm

   [...] October 15, 2007 Posted by taoist in Al Qaeda, Iraq War. trackback The U.S. military thinks its finally been victorious in Iraq over Al Qaeda, and just hasn’t announced it so as to not give AQI a target point to shoot [...]

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