Vlad Hearts A’Jad
In case anyone on any side had any illusions about either of these parties: Erstwhile godless commie seeking to restore lost Soviet greatness gets chummy with messianic Iranian zealot seeking to precipitate return of the Mahdi and/or restore lost Persian greatness, threatens Great Satan/Yankee Imperialists.Â
There’s something to despise here for everyone, from godless commies and Russki neo-imperialists* to freedom-loving capitalist running dogs to skittish Euros to chastened Caspians to suicidal Sunni jihadis to end-timing Mahd-men, as Putin plays a dangerous game with A’jad.
It all sounds a little contradictory, this lovefest, but it’s more Molotov-Ribbentrop than it is FDR-Churchill or Bush-Blair. The illusion-free should and undoubtedly do include Putin and A’jad. UK Telegraph: “Despite the handshakes, Mr Putin and Mr Ahmadinejad do not trust one another an inch.” Putin and A’jad share a common enemy, us, that for public purposes trumps their rivalry with each other.
Anyway, Putin’s lining up with A’jad, Iranian nukes vs. the civilized world.
Rather than seeking to actually boost Iran, Putin of course is more interested in boosting Russia and cutting into U.S. influence in the former SSRs, in addition to further nose-thumbing along the lines of recent Russian military flights to Guam and around NATO airspace, all designed to suggest Russia’s back.
How’s it playing in Iran? Fars: Caspian states show united front vs aggression.
Klinghoffer at History News Network brings a dose of irony to the table. Financial Times has a little more of the nuance, and here’s Stratfor:
… Putin made it known that Russia would oppose any U.S. military action against Iran. More significant, he reached an agreement with the leaders of Caspian states that none of them would permit their soil to be used by the United States for such an attack. Putin was quoted as saying, “We should not even think of using force in this region. We need to agree that using the territory of one Caspian Sea [state] in the event of aggression against another is impossible.”
The immediate target of the comments was Azerbaijan, where there has been discussion of U.S. use of airfields in the event of war against Iran. Putin made it clear — and there did not seem to be much dissent — that general cooperation by former Soviet Union nations with the United States in a war against Iran would place them on a collision course with Russia. This was not Russia’s position in Afghanistan or Iraq. Moscow is taking a different tack on Iran.
Two themes have now merged. Until this point, the Russians have used U.S. preoccupation with Iraq to increase their influence in the former Soviet Union. Now Putin has upped the ante, making it clear that Russia can dictate the parameters of acceptable behavior to at least the countries around the Caspian and, by logical extension, in the former Soviet Union. It is certainly important that Putin does not want a U.S. attack against Iran. It is extremely important that Putin is now openly limiting the freedom of action of former Soviet republics. He is making Iran a test case.
Putin has a range of levers to use against these countries, the most important being the fact that their ministries, police and military forces are deeply penetrated by the Russian FSB, the successor to the KGB. Put differently, as Soviet states, these countries’ regimes were intimately tied to the KGB. Following independence, that relationship did not atrophy. Apart from economic and military options, the Russians know what is happening in these countries, and can influence their affairs with relative ease. In Tehran Putin read the riot act to Azerbaijan, and we expect that it heard it.Â
… This of course leaves the question of what Russia might do. Its ability to protect Iran is negligible. However, during the Cold War the Soviets practiced linkage. During the Cuban missile crisis, the United States expected Russia to do nothing in Cuba, but to act against Berlin in response to an invasion. Russia will not do anything directly to help Iran. But Moscow is interested in countries in the former Soviet Union, where Russia wants to redefine its status and the United States has few military options. Georgia in the Caucasus and the Baltic countries are of interest to the United States and very vulnerable to Russian response.
More:
Gateway, Vlad keeps his shirt on, mullahs look on the bright side.
Kamagir: Sharia as I say, not as I do.
Contender for most idiotic post on the subject, Andrew Sullivan:
What Putin is surely saying with respect to Iran’s nuclear ambitions is relatively simple. If you Americans bomb Iran, we have the capacity to help them develop a nuclear bomb pretty quickly thereafter. Or just give them one.
Stiff competition from Newshog:
Some today have asked whether Russia is mad enough to intercede militarily if the Cheneyites succeed in getting their oft-wished-for war with Iran. Perhaps a better question would be: are even the Cheneyites mad enough to push that war forward if there’s any chance at all that Russia might defend it’s satellite Iran?
Short answer, no. Iran isn’t Russia’s satellite, and despite Newshog’s speculation about economic scenarios, won’t be anytime soon. What Putin signalled is that he will punish Azerbaijan if they aid and abet the evil imperialists. Russia go to war with the United States over airstrikes on Iran? To adopt the tones of Cernig, no chance at all … not even a maybe. (Newshog needs to stop gobbling its news and chew before swallowing. Also, learn proper use of “its” and “it’s.”)
* Godless commies and imperialist Ivans may applaud cynical nose-thumbing against one’s better interest, particularly if it looks like a toegrip in pursuit of the mythical Russkie warmwater port. But aiding and abetting nuke-seeking mullahs has to give even some of them pause. Â
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:41 am on Wednesday, October 17, 2007
7 Responses to “Vlad Hearts A’Jad”
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October 17th, 2007 at 11:11 am
Web Reconnaissance for 10/17/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
October 17th, 2007 at 11:26 am
Vlad hearts A’Jad.
And the America hating western left loves ‘em all, militantly godless and militantly righteous alike.
But for some reason they never seem to want to move to those little slices of heaven on earth.
October 17th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
Gee, we’ve progress all the way back to the end of WWII. The USSR was the reason why we had to become involved in Iran in the first place. This time, however, there are more people in Iran interested in aligning themselves with Russia. At the end of WWII, Iran recognized the danger that Soviet Russia posed, as Stalin quickly took over country after country. They coveted Iran for its oil, and its access to the sea.
I ask myself what makes Putin think he can push us around. Looking at the balance of power, it looks like a foolish move–in much the way that Saddam was foolish. What does Russia now know that makes them think they can get away with this? (I know what I think, but I’m curious about what other’s might think.)
October 17th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Putin thinks he can “push us around” just as many do - because rightly or wrongly, we have to be kicked several times square in the bullocks before responding.
October 17th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
Putin’s playing a dangerous game with Iran. As much as he fears US influence in the old Soviet republics, he should fear Iran’s Islamic influence in those same countries more, because many of them are nominally Muslim. The old Soviet republics hate Russia with a passion, and they could easily be pulled into the Islamic sphere if they thought it was to their advantage. I seriously doubt Russia wants another Chechnya on its hands.
October 17th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
Here is a thought. Putin is goading Iran along, hoping that they will continue to overplay their hand. That will force the US to destroy Iran. The destruction would make the US unpopular in Europe. It would also leave the Caspian as a Russian lake, that Russia would be free to exploit without Iran’s oversight, and remove a festering problem — Iranian sponsored Islamists in Russian territory.
October 18th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
True, Robert. Putin sees A’jad as a very useful idiot. Putin hopes A’jad will do keep on goading the US like a blithering idiot so Iran does get attacked, either by Israel, the US, or both. The short-term benefit is that oil goes up to $100-$120 a barrel, all the better for those petro profits to roll into Moscow. The long term benefit is that oil finally goes down a good $50-75 a barrel because we’ve lanced the putrifying, pus filled boil that has been festering for the past 28 years.
Putin may be a Kremlin-savvy authoritarian yearning for the old Soviet Union, but he’s a smart and shrewd one. While the elite of Europe tear their clothes over US “imperialism” and “hegemony,” and the extreme left try to tongue-twist themselves on the various inflections of “unjust,” Putin can go in there and take what he wants, unbothered.
PS: I’m beginning to think that the reason why energy prices are so high right now is that Wall Street knows something we don’t know or thinks something’s going to happen. If so, after what happens happens, before they sell off their contracts and collect their profits, they may want to re-introduce themselves to what happens to inside traders when they game the market and pull out quickly. Also, they may want to review the last few minutes of Trading Places, and re-introduce themselves to the most extreme results of margin call.