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Abandon Hope

Or hope with abandon?* Euro think tank reports Taliban control half of Afghanistan, winning hearts and minds, not if but when Kabul will fall.  UK Telegraph:

… The Senlis Council claimed that the insurgents controlled “vast swathes of unchallenged territory” and were gaining “more and more political legitimacy in the minds of the Afghan people”.

It said that the Nato force in the country needed to be doubled to 80,000 front-line soldiers who should be allowed to pursue militants into Pakistan.

The 110-page report said that its “exclusive” research found the Taliban controlled 54 per cent of Afghanistan.

It calculated that Nato countries should contribute 2.3 soldiers per £500 million of their GDP to provide 71,000 soldiers, with 9,000 additional troops coming from Muslim nations.

…

British and American military leaders say the mission in Afghanistan has been hamstrung by Nato members refusing to send reinforcements or placing “caveats” on their duties when there.

There is no sign, despite pressure from the US and Britain, of any move within Nato to send reinforcements to Afghanistan.

The report said: “It is a sad indictment of the current state of Afghanistan that the question now appears to be not if the Taliban will return to Kabul, but when this will happen and in what form.

The oft-stated aim of reaching the city in 2008 appears more viable than ever and it is incumbent upon the international community to implement a new strategic paradigm for Afghanistan before time runs out”.

The Ministry of Defence dismissed the report, saying its conclusion that the Taliban would take Kabul was not credible. “The Taliban does not pose a credible threat to the democratic Afghan government,” a spokesman said.

* I don’t know who or what the Brussels-based Afghan-oriented wanktank Senlis Council is, aside from alarmist, or maybe just trying to light a fire under our Euro-allies. Apparently no one told them about the 10-1, 20-1, 50-1, 100-1 Taliban-NATO death ratio whenever they engage.  But what that suggests is we should engage more, and the Senlis proposal that Europe should contribute to its defense and the support for democracy and freedom in Afghanistan sounds good to me.  Presumeably Senlis thinks the same thing about Iraq?  Like most of Europe, Senlis appears to limit its focus to A’stan and avoids dirtying its hands with the uglier theater of GWOT operations. Senlis site doesn’t offer much, but here are some other thoughts on who or what it is.

Topics: Afghanistan

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:47 am on Friday, November 23, 2007

10 Responses to “Abandon Hope”

1. The Thunder Run Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 9:47 am

   Web Reconnaissance for 11/23/2007

   A short recon of what�s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…

2. Things go Wrong in Afghanistan « The Van Der Galiën Gazette Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 11:07 am

   [...] More at Jules Crittenden’s place. Jules seems to believe that everything is going quite alright in Afghanistan. Sadly, this think tank isn’t the only one who says that things are going downhill. The Dutch press and government also say it, with the note - of course - that it’s not getting worse in ‘our’ province. [...]

3. Dave Surls Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 12:24 pm

   “British and American military leaders say the mission in Afghanistan has been hamstrung by Nato members refusing to send reinforcements or placing “caveats” on their duties when there.”

   “There is no sign, despite pressure from the US and Britain, of any move within Nato to send reinforcements to Afghanistan.”

   Yeah, that’s a nice alliance the liberal Democrats put together for us.

   Thank God, we had the wisdom to spend hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of dollars rescuing/defending western Europe from the fascists and commies.

   It’s really paid off.

4. RebeccaH Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 12:29 pm

   I wonder if the European members of NATO would be more inclined to act if that first paragraph read like this:

   The Senlis Council claimed that the insurgents controlled “vast swathes of unchallenged territory” and were gaining “more and more political legitimacy in the minds of European Muslims.

5. Michael van der Galien Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 12:58 pm

   Perhaps Rebecca should do some research.

   I don’t know but last time I checked, the Netherlands is a European country (as is Britain of course).

6. saltydog Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 6:32 pm

   Yes, Michael, but they aren’t so ready to admit that this is happening in European countries. Of course, what is happening there doesn’t involve the U.S., so there’s no political value to be had in pointing out the fact that they are being overrun and politically outdone by the thugs of a third-rate philosophy. There was a time when Europe owned the reason necessary to combat this obvious anti-life mysticism, but they gave it up for Kant and his progeny, the thugs of a first-rate anti-life mysticism.

7. Purple Avenger Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 7:01 pm

   I don’t know but last time I checked, the Netherlands is a European country

   In 30 years you’ll be part of the Uma. The natives aren’t breeding fast enough to match the imported muslims.

   20% now, right? 51% and its all over dude. All your base will belong to them.

8. Dave Surls Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 8:17 pm

   “20% now, right?”

   5% is the estimate usually given, and that’s one of the highest percentages in western Europe.

   The muslims have a long, long way to go before they constitute a majority in western Europe.

9. Grimmy Says:
   November 23rd, 2007 at 8:52 pm

   The idea that any targeted culture has until the muslim have reached a voting majority is a false hope.

   There’s always variations but the usual pattern is:

   At 10% agitation begins.
   At 15% violent agitation begins.
   At 20% open internal war begins.

10. Dave Surls Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 8:42 am

    “At 20% open internal war begins.”

    There’s two places in Europe that have large Muslim populations (over 20%), southern Russia (Chechnya), and the Balkans (Bosnia, Albania).

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