Say It Ain’t So
Political manipulation of the intelligence on WMD … by intelligence chiefs? In the wake of NIE’s about-face, Podhoretz is suspicious:
I must confess to suspecting that the intelligence community, having been excoriated for supporting the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, is now bending over backward to counter what has up to now been a similarly universal view (including as is evident from the 2005 NIE, within the intelligence community itself) that Iran is hell-bent on developing nuclear weapons. I also suspect that, having been excoriated as well for minimizing the time it would take Saddam to add nuclear weapons to his arsenal, the intelligence community is now bending over backward to maximize the time it will take Iran to reach the same goal.
But I entertain an even darker suspicion. It is that the intelligence community, which has for some years now been leaking material calculated to undermine George W. Bush, is doing it again.
I confess, I can’t help but entertain the same dark suspicions, with a grim sense of ironic foreboding … what if the intelligence community that failed to prevent a supposedly unnecessary war in 2003 when it allegedly allowed itself to be shamelessly manipulated by political leaders, thwarts a necessary action and inaugurates a worse war at some future date … after allowing itself to shamelessly manipulate the same political leaders.
The nature of intelligence is that it will almost always be imperfect. A best guess. But this situation does beggar belief in anything they say, when what they say apparently has become a massive, coordinated multi-agency campaign of ass-coverage. Here’s an idea. Make the entire thing classified. Classify the words National Intelligence Estimate. Sudanese-style flogging for any pol who utters the words and any intel agent who leaks. The charge: Insulting the National Intelligence.
There’s another big problem here. Iraq. The intelligence community’s best guess that it didn’t know what it was talking about regarding Iranian nukes, and its endorsement of Iranian responsiveness to friendly chats, has just undermined any effort to prevent and hold Iran accountable for fomenting violence in Iraq, supplying weapons, cash and expertise to terrorists, and murdering American soldiers.
The greatest beneficiary of NIE waffling is not the peace camp in the United States, gleeful though they may be over this development. It is Ahmadinejad and the Iranian regime, which can now – credibly in the minds of many — deny and dispute any US accusations with impunity.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 7:25 am on Tuesday, December 4, 2007
9 Responses to “Say It Ain’t So”
Leave a Reply
Trackback URLYou must be logged in to post a comment.
December 4th, 2007 at 11:10 am
Considering the history of the intelligence community so far, how can anyone not entertain dark suspicions about their motives? Naturally, thinking people will accept that intelligence will always be a “best guess”, but how reassured can anyone be if they can’t even make an adequate guess?
December 4th, 2007 at 11:11 am
In other words, if we couldn’t believe them then, why should we believe them now?
December 4th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
The evidence of gross political infighting going on within the intelligence community is such that I view whatever they say as a political statement, not anything having to do with intelligence (take that any way you please). The loser in all of this, of course, isn’t one political party or the other, or even any special interest within either party or within the intelligence community, but the American people who pay them to do a job.
President Bush out to have cleaned out much of the inbred within our government institutions as soon as these problems became evident.
December 4th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
We are in total agreement. As I read the comments to the article I was amazed at how much the progs were desperately hoping that the NIE was true.
Iran is not going to stop their nuke program and then start attacking our troops with traceable weapons. They want a weapon that can back them up on the battlefield if we get pissed off and go after them.
I also won’t give credence to a group that has been leaking secrets like a sieve in favor of the enemy.
December 4th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
I have my suspicions as well that there are elements inside the IC that do indeed wish to shape or influence policy into a more accommodationist approach to Tehran. But I find it difficult if not impossible to believe that the entire IC could pull something like this off. Certainly, there must be analysts in the various Byzantine intelligence agencies and departments that would be quick to complain about manipulation of their work.
Perhaps those will be heard from in the next few weeks.
December 4th, 2007 at 6:08 pm
Iran and Nuclear Weapons
See also Democracy Arsenal (not a neoconservative outfit), which argues: You don’t want to believe the Bush Administration . . . I’m right there with you. But concern about Iran’s nuclear program was not exclusively American; it was shared by every …
December 4th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Well, the good news is that if Iran ever does a test shot, then there’s gonna be a lot of explaining to do in the intel community and heads would roll.
If Iran gets itchy and does a test as soon as they got enough material, then a preemptive strike is still viable. If they are patient and wait long enough to build and emplace several bombs using someone else’s proven design, then its stickier.
Quick test shot - good.
5-7 years from now test shot - bad.
December 5th, 2007 at 10:47 am
President Bush out to have cleaned out much of the inbred within our government institutions as soon as these problems became evident.
Easier said than done. The “intelligence community” (neither intelligent nor communal) is this vast sprawling network of infighting, turf defending agencies filled with…Valerie Plame types?!
Anyway, Condi Rice has noted that if you read the entire (presumably classified) version of this NIE and you get a different picture than that being hyped by HairReid et al and the MSM.
When does this stuff stop ?
Why would a NIE (or its publicity) give Ahmadinejhad and Iranian mullahs a chance to dance and smirk ?
Are we nuts ? (don’t answer that)
December 5th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Are we nuts?
While there are nuts among us, most of us are just the poor sods who pay these myopic asshats to undermine the country during a time of war.