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More Progress Espied

Iraqi oil production exceeds pre-war output. Beeb:  

The IEA said Iraqi crude production is now running at 2.3 million barrels per day, compared with 1.9 million barrels at the start of this year.

It puts the rise down to the improving security situation in Iraq, especially in the north of the country.

But the IEA warned that attacks on Iraqi oil facilities remain a threat.

…

In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the IEA puts the Iraqi increase in production down to improved security on the main oil pipeline from Iraq’s northern oilfields to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey.

Analysts point to a number of reasons for this, ranging from the big increase or “surge” in American troop numbers in Baghdad, to Sunni militant groups turning against former al-Qaeda allies.

…

The security improvements in Iraq are leading to all sorts of dividends in the country, some of which could be enormously lucrative, said BBC correspondent Crispin Thorold in Baghdad.

…

Iraq has the third-largest proven oil reserves after Saudi Arabia and Iran, but exports plummeted in the face of the insurgency that flared up following the US-led invasion.

Separately, the IEA said world oil demand would grow faster in 2008 than had previously been expected.

Saying markets were proving resilient to near record-high prices due to continuing strong global demand, the IEA now expects oil demand to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, 200,000 bpd higher than the previous forecast.

Fortunately for the Dem Cong, they shrewdly pegged their support for Iraq on the measure of progress they know from their own bitter experience is the most difficult to achieve. Political agreement.  Theoretically, however, if there is a growing pot of money to divvy up, that could actually have the effect of making the political factions more eager to reach an agreement so they can lay their hands on some of it.  Nothing like prosperity to make people forget why they wanted to kill each other.  WSJ:

AMMAN, Jordan — Amid today’s tight crude markets, hundreds of thousands of extra barrels of oil have helped ease the strain. They are coming from a surprising source: Iraq.

In recent months, Iraqi oil output has climbed slowly back to levels seen before the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, thanks in large part to increased production from the north. While it is unclear whether the gains can be maintained, the higher numbers have been an encouraging sign to U.S. and Iraqi officials in Baghdad.

…

Increasing oil revenue could help the Iraqi central government capitalize on recent security gains by providing more cash to spend on restoring basic services. But Iraq has shown signs of recovery before only to see those gains wither away amid bouts of sabotage and maintenance woes, which have long plagued the country’s vast but creaking petroleum industry.

Iraqi and U.S. officials and outside analysts say the real question is whether the gains are here to stay.

…

Iraqi oil officials haven’t been able to invest much money earmarked for repairs and maintenance. The government spent only 30% of the oil ministry’s 2007 capital investment budget of $2.4 billion. Baghdad has allocated an additional $2 billion for oil-sector capital investment in 2008, a number most analysts agree is far short of the industry’s needs.

Petroleum legislation aimed at providing a legal framework for foreign investment in the industry has stalled. Baghdad and Kurdish officials, meanwhile, are squabbling over a handful of relatively small deals the semiautonomous Kurdish enclave in the north has signed with companies.

LA Times the other day with a little more on that: 

In an interview Friday on Iraq’s Al Hurra television, Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani said exports had reached 2 million barrels a day recently.

“Thank God for those high oil prices,” he said.

Oil analysts and U.S. officials, however, say that until Iraq’s government passes a bill overseeing management of the country’s oil fields and establishing a system for divvying oil revenue, the industry will remain stunted by the lack of investment. Shahristani alluded to that legislation in the interview, saying the most important thing in the industry is “full national control over the oil resources,” including guaranteeing employment for Iraqis.

Shahristani took aim at the semiautonomous Kurdistan region in the north, which has passed its own oil legislation and has signed contracts with foreign oil companies. The move has set the stage for a showdown in Iraq’s parliament between Kurdish lawmakers and others who see the Kurdistan legislation as undermining Iraq’s national interests.

U.S. officials have said passage of national oil legislation must be a priority for the Iraqi parliament if distrust among ethnic groups and regions is to be overcome. There is no sign, however, that the oil bill is close to passage.
…

The country’s Sunni Arab vice president, meanwhile, was quoted Saturday as blaming the government for ongoing political discord, which U.S. officials warn could lead to increased violence. Tariq Hashimi made his comments in Bahrain, where he was attending a security conference, the Reuters news agency reported.

“The result of this political process is now a disputable constitution, a weak government and incoherent parliament,” Reuters quoted Hashimi as saying.

U.S. diplomats and military leaders have warned that unless political leaders end their public battles and display evidence of reconciliation, sectarian violence will surge back.

Well, you know what they say. Money changes everything. Now, wasn’t there some more progress lying around here somewhere?

Separate matter, Beeb article above oddly sandwiches the following within the oil news:

In southern Iraq, more than 85% of the residents of Basra believe British troops have had a negative effect on the Iraqi province since 2003, according to a BBC poll.

The survey for BBC Newsnight of nearly 1,000 people also suggests that 56% believe their presence has increased the overall level of militia violence.

Hey, I thought the Brits had performed some kind of miracle there. Let’s see. They were given the easy part of Iraq to administer, accepted accolades for their brilliant security accomplishment, and as the wheels started to come off that and evidence of Iranian meddling grew, decided to bail.  Thanks, UK!

Welcome, Punditeers, etal. So good to see you. Guess who’s had second thoughts on global jihad. No, not the Clintons, stupid! They still want you to re-experience the ’90s. So, do you think this is a post-war election? Talk about aspirational cognition. Dig deep enough, you’ll find good news in all the worst places. Happy Eid al-Adha!

Topics: Iraq

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:39 am on Saturday, December 15, 2007

8 Responses to “More Progress Espied”

1. RebeccaH Says:
   December 15th, 2007 at 12:21 pm

   Nothing smooths out political differences like money. Witness our own Congress.

2. MikeH Says:
   December 15th, 2007 at 1:57 pm

   I love it, Viet Cong, Dem Cong! You have a way with words Jules! ;)

3. pcrater Says:
   December 15th, 2007 at 3:40 pm

   Oh, but wait! Where is all that oil money going?? Why, it’s going right into the pockets of Dick Cheney, and all his friends in TEXAS!! Because that’s where the Iraq War was cooked up don’t you know….in secret. See, we went to Iraq to STEAL oil, and now that it’s up to pre-invasion levels, we’re up to our elbows in the stuff. Oh, curse you Dick Cheney and all your oil-stealing Texas cronies!!!!

4. El Cid Says:
   December 15th, 2007 at 4:06 pm

   Some or several at the Beeb, had to have barfed while reporting that one.

   OH, MikeH.

   In my younger days the Viet Cong, Dem Cong would have ended with Rama, Rama, Ding Dong.

5. MikeH Says:
   December 15th, 2007 at 4:35 pm

   I do remember those days, they didn’t pass fast enough. And we have some hanging chaff left over from that epoch, Reid, Kennedy, Pelosi, ad nauseum.

6. MikeH Says:
   December 15th, 2007 at 4:39 pm

   Darn, I tried to underline *left*.

   Maybe I should get my pencil out of mothballs, I know how to make that work. *Sigh*

7. El Cid Says:
   December 15th, 2007 at 5:28 pm

   Well my friend, you get the pencil.

   Typically I use the eraser end for some damn reason. Oh wait…think it’s called…
   m-i-s-t-a-k-e-s. With me, the pencil is practically brand new…eraser, gone.

8. MikeH Says:
   December 16th, 2007 at 1:19 am

   LOL, I knew there was a simple beauty to the old way, bigger erasers allowed more time to think. And construction paper withstood the test of composition (at least in my case, others were probably satisfied with normal paper).

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