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Sadr To Stay On The Sidelines

Not because he’s cheering anything on, more likely he knows he’d get crushed if he made a move on the field. Reuters:   

Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is considering extending a freeze on the activities of his powerful Mehdi Army militia, his official spokesman said.

“Yes, there is a chance that the freeze on the Mehdi Army will be extended,” Salah al-Ubaidy told Reuters late on Wednesday.

Ubaidy did not say how long another extension might last or why the group was thinking of extending a freeze that U.S. commanders say has helped ease overall levels of violence in Iraq.

Sadr, who led uprisings against U.S. troops in 2004 and whose militia were later described by U.S. commanders as their greatest threat, surprised both Iraqis and U.S. forces when he ordered the initial six-month freeze on his militia in August.

Washington says the freeze is one of the factors that has led to a decline in violence across Iraq, although it has continued to pursue what it describes as “rogue” Mehdi Army units that have not laid down arms.

Sports analogy compliments of Captains Quarters, where some mystification is expressed though Ed actually has the answer:

Sadr has proven a wily foe in Iraq, and one has to wonder what he hopes to gain from this decision. No one really understood his sudden decision to adopt the cease-fire, either, except that he had already tried fighting a smaller American force and lost badly. Sadr didn’t want to give the US another reason to go after him personally, and in fact fled the country when the surge started.

For that matter, what do his followers gain? When Sadr fled the country, people expected them to drop out in confusion and disgust, but that didn’t happen.

Moqtada al-Sadr and the saner of his followers figured out that if they wait out the Americans and their surge, they live to terrorize and attempt a power grab another day.  While it is always possible he’ll mature into a responsible citizen in a new peaceful Iraq, I wouldn’t bet on it. 

Topics: Iraq

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:01 am on Thursday, December 20, 2007

6 Responses to “Sadr To Stay On The Sidelines”

1. LT Nixon Says:
   December 20th, 2007 at 8:51 am

   “No one really understood his sudden decision to adopt the cease-fire, either, except that he had already tried fighting a smaller American force and lost badly.”

   I’d have to respectfully disagree. The Karbala holy pilgrimmage in August where about 50 people got killed due to Shiite on Shiite violence just reinforced the idea with the Iraqi public that Sadr and his goon squad were a bunch of petty thugs. The Sadrists and the Mahdi Army are trying to improve their public image, but there’s a lot of atrocities already attached to them. Best to keep our eyes on these guys.

2. Robert Says:
   December 20th, 2007 at 11:14 am

   The null hypothesis has to be that Mookie is playing without chips, he can ante by just showing up, but he can’t call or raise. So he antes and then passes.

3. The Thunder Run Says:
   December 20th, 2007 at 11:18 am

   Web Reconnaissance for 12/20/2007

   A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.

4. RebeccaH Says:
   December 20th, 2007 at 11:33 am

   Moqtada al-Sadr and the saner of his followers figured out that if they wait out the Americans and their surge, they live to terrorize and attempt a power grab another day.

   I believe this is true. And he knows that if he had kept up the violence, sooner or later someone (not us, because we don’t do that, but Iraqis surely) would find a way to kill him.

5. saltydog Says:
   December 20th, 2007 at 6:48 pm

   Too bad we “don’t do that,” i.e., kill our enemies. We could have saved ourselves a lot of trouble, and many, many American and Iraqi lives, if we had taken care of this bastard at the git-go. I expect he is just bidding his time. He doesn’t seem to be completely stupid, more’s the pity.

6. snelson134 Says:
   December 22nd, 2007 at 5:55 am

   Yeah, salty, if we had a CIA interested in working for this country, it should be arranging right now for his heart attack.

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