Happy New Year?
Check this out. Guess who else thinks Iran is an unresolved problem. U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, L.A. Times:
BAGHDAD — The U.S. ambassador expressed wariness Sunday about Iranian intentions in Iraq, saying that even if Iran-backed militias have decreased activities here, he was not yet convinced the Islamic regime was committed to helping stabilize Iraq.
U.S. military officials have cited the recent drop in roadside bombs and mortar and rocket attacks as a sign that Iran, which Washington accuses of fomenting unrest in Iraq, is altering its behavior. Most have said they remain in “wait-and-see” mode to determine if the change represents a firm policy change.
Ambassador Ryan Crocker said he wasn’t swayed yet. “Is it a conscious policy decision on the part of the Iranian government to use all its influence to bring these things down?” he said, referring to violent incidents. “Or does it involve the Iranians saying, ‘Let’s throttle it back, get everyone comfortable, and then put the pedal down again?’ ”
Crocker made his comments to foreign journalists during a wide-ranging briefing, which came as Iraq, the United States and Iran try set a date for a fourth round of talks on Iraqi security. Previous meetings have done little to improve icy U.S.-Iranian relations. Iran denies Washington’s claims that it has orchestrated the smuggling of sophisticated bombs and other weapons to anti-U.S. Shiite militias in Iraq.
U.S. military officials say the number of such bombs being detonated and discovered has dropped dramatically since the summer. Crocker noted, however, that they continue, and he cited the assassination this month of a U.S.-allied provincial police commander. Crocker said the explosive used in the attack had the sophistication of those linked to Iranian manufacturing.
Referring to the decline in such attacks, Crocker said, “If it’s a case of the Iranians moving down a road of using influence to reduce rather than foment violence, that is a good thing.” But he added, “They would still in our view clearly have some way to go.”
That’s quite apart from that other issue. The annoyingly persistent nuke thing.
McCaffrey, concerned about Iran. Kissinger, not buying the NIE line.
Meanwhile, there’s always al-Sadr, with or without Iran. Biding his time.
Al-Sadr has been allowed to think he can turn violence on and off like a spigot. Iran, meanwhile, has never been seriously challenged in its three decades of supporting terrorism against western powers. Iran has every reason to think it can get away with murder and nukes, too. Right now, the thinking seems to be we’ve dodged the bullet of war with Iran, and this is supposed to be a good thing.
AP notes a host of other problems Crocker has highlighted in the post-surge year, which hopefully other elements of government, U.S. and Iraqi, will recognize as a moment of opportunity, not an occasion for opportunism:
BAGHDAD - The U.S. ambassador to Iraq said Sunday that recent successes such as reducing violence have created a new set of challenges for 2008 _ the most important being the return of refugees and the struggle for political reconciliation.
…
“The positive developments in the latter half of 2007 represent the challenges of 2008,” Crocker told reporters in Baghdad. “There will be the ongoing challenges of reconciliation, and if there is a single overarching issue that will determine the future of this country that is it for me in one word.”
Others include the return of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who have fled to Jordan, Syria and beyond _ a repatriation which Crocker said must be handled carefully “so it doesn’t sow the seeds of new tension and instability.”
Equally important will be finding how to reintegrate the growing numbers of Sunni Arabs joining volunteer groups funded by the United States to fight al-Qaida in Iraq. There are about 70,000 Sunni irregulars in the groups known as Awakening Councils _ dubbed by the U.S. military as Concerned Local Citizens.
The groups, along with a surge of U.S. troops into Iraq and a decision by firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to stand down his Mahdi Army militia for six months, have contributed to a 60 percent drop in violence since June.
But the Shiite-dominated government is deeply concerned about the groups, many of which are made up of former Sunni insurgents who once battled both the American forces and their Shiite allies.
There are plans to absorb about 20,000 men into the security forces, and Crocker said America plans to spend $155 million to help create new jobs and provide vocational training. The Iraqi government would match that amount, he added.
“They also present a challenge,” Crocker said of the Sunni groups. “They have got to be accommodated in some way that meets their needs and concerns, but this has to be done in a way that also ensures that other elements of the population and government are comfortable with.”
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:11 pm on Sunday, December 23, 2007
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