Hold Your Nose
Captain Ed is calling it a “None of the Above” election, noting Rasmussen finds high opposition numbers for all the candidates. Leading the negative pack are Hill and Romney at 47 percent. I guess our nation’s woeful partisanship and rancor won’t be ending any time soon, though interestingly the McCain partisanship-antidote candidacy has the smallest negative.
On the positive side of the ledger, Rasmussen puts Hillary, Giuliani and Romney in a general election dead heat, which confirms partisanship is alive and well, and it’s really more “Over My Dead Body” than “None of the Above.” Trying to stay positive, I’m more inclined to call it a “Hold Your Nose” election and glad to see coronation of the other Clinton is anything but the foregone conclusion so many people seem to think it is:
In a general election match-up, both Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney find themselves in a toss-up with Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone shows Giuliani with a statistically insignificant 45% to 44% advantage over Clinton. Romney enjoys the same margin, nominally leads Clinton 44% to 43%.
Both Republicans have a decided advantage with male voters. Clinton has the advantage with female voters (see crosstabs).
Clinton and Giuliani have been trading generally insignificant leads for months. In the last four polls, Clinton led twice, Giuliani led twice. Earlier in December, it was Clinton by three. Both candidates have been within four points of the 45% mark in nine consecutive surveys (see history of this match-up).
However, while Giuliani has been competitive with the Democratic frontrunner all year, the current poll represents the best performance yet for Romney. Clinton had held the lead over Romney in 11 out of 11 previous surveys. Earlier in December, he trailed the former First Lady by three percentage points(see history of this match-up).
Mayor Giuliani has expended relatively few resources on the earliest primary and caucus states and hopes to make a sweep of big states on Super Tuesday, coming up in February. He lags in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina—where Romney, Mike Huckabee and John McCain are drawing the most support.
In New Hampshire Romney attracts 31% support, McCain attracts 27%. In Iowa, Huckabee and Romney are virtually tied 28% to 27%; in South Carolina, they’re exactly tied 23% to 23%. Huckabee has a very modest lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The best news out of all of this is that everything is very much in contention. The article buries the fact that another Arkansas governor is very much in the game. Arkansas is a great state, don’t get me wrong. I once had grits there, outside Clarksville, on exiting Oklahoma on a weeklong intercoastal car delivery gig. They were served by a woman with a charming mix of Korean and Southern accents, which goes to show what a cosmopolitan place Arkansas is. But is there something about its governance and homespun charm that uniquely qualifies its men to be president? Makes sense, I guess, in a world where being married to Bill qualifies as presidential experience.
Rasmussen doesn’t give us Huckabee or McCain in the general matchup but RealClearPolitics’s poll roundup includes Fox’s Dec 20 results that show McCain trumping and Huckabee trailing both against Clinton and Obama. Scroll down the same chart and you’ll see Clinton and Obama ahead of Giuliani and Romney and Huckabee in the general.
On the right side of the ledger, there’s something not to like about all of these guys. On the single most important issue of our time, however, McCain and Giuliani are pretty convincingly committed to prosecuting the larger war on terrorism and the Iraq theater in particular to a successful outcome, with an eye cocked on Iran, and Romney says he is, though history suggests what he says is not always the best guage of what he’ll say next. I’m not sure exactly where Hucks is on all that. Still triangulating somewhere between turn the other cheek, if thine eye offend thee and render under Caesar, I think.
Here’s what Rasmussen says about the core opposition numbers cited at the top of this post:
Among the leading Presidential candidates, New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have the highest level of core opposition among voters. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they will vote against each of these candidates no matter who else is on the ballot.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is Arizona Senator John McCain. For the second straight month, McCain finds himself with the smallest level of core opposition–just 33% say they will definitely vote against him. That figure is unchanged from a month ago, down from 39% a two months ago and a peak of 42% in June. These results are just one part of the reason that it is a good time to be John McCain.
In between, 42% will definitely vote against Giuliani, 38% against Edwards, 36% against Obama, 34% against Huckabee, 34% against Thompson.
As for core support, Clinton is also on top. Thirty percent (30%) will definitely vote for her and 29% will definitely vote for Obama. Edwards and Giuliani have core support from 23%, McCain from 22%, Thompson and Huckabee from 21%, and Romney from 19%.
On a net basis (core support minus core opposition), Obama (-7) and McCain (-11) come out on top. Giuliani (-19) and Romney (-28) have the weakest numbers on a net basis.
All of which tends to put the resurgent McCain campaign in a good light re electability should he hang on in New Hampshire. But all that any of this matters at this point is to the extent it influences a handful of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and to the extent that it influences money.
Here’s my employer’s take on McCain. More endorsements here.
Recently: Tight Embrace. Takes One to Know One. Women vs. Obama. Play Muskie for Me. Questions for the Huckster. Post-War Election.
Topics: pols
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:58 am on Sunday, December 23, 2007
6 Responses to “Hold Your Nose”
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December 23rd, 2007 at 12:52 pm
I’m for the “Hold Your Nose” metaphor. I’m delighted to see that The Glacier isn’t so inevitable anymore, but given that her closest opponent is Obama, I feel like lamenting for the presidential electoral process.
I believe the Dhimicrats have the disadvantage of not having a strong candidate that has actual executive experience. Their leading candidates (Clinton and Obama) are campaigning on hype and fluff……and too many Americans are lapping it up, although that core opposition percentage does give me a little hope..
OTOH, John Effing Kerry almost won in 2004, so this display of cognitive dissonance shouldn’t be any surprise.
December 23rd, 2007 at 12:53 pm
Whoops! Should have have said …but given that her closest opponent for the Democratic nomination is Obama…
Kick in already, coffee!
December 23rd, 2007 at 3:26 pm
Any one for the Rhino Party??
Cheers
December 23rd, 2007 at 4:46 pm
[...] Ed calls it the “None of the Above” election and Jules Crittenden called it the “Over my Dead Body election or his preference of “Hold My [...]
December 23rd, 2007 at 7:52 pm
I’d take a dead Kennedy over any of this bunch. Bobby or JFK, either one. Doesn’t matter. They both had stones.
December 24th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
I’ve seen Herself the Co-President’s Christmas ad. What a phony bitch…a marionette has more sincerity than she does, and I apologize to all marionettes.