Wild Ride
Predicts Politico in the wake of Huckabee upset in Iowa. It’s the first stretch, and it’s a horse race. Iowa’s already in the rearview mirror, and whatever happened in a handful of livingrooms there will quickly become irrelevant. Links, snark, deep thoughts follow:
If Huckabee wins or shows strong in New Hampshire, that’s another matter, though it looks more like McCain or Mitt get their second wind there. Rudy takes a risk bypassing the boutique venues for the big-box elections, but his fundamental principle is spot on: Iowa schmiowa. New Hampshire, New Schmampshire. It’s Super Tuesday. Iowa and New Hampshire are footholds, fundraising boosts that usually but not always eliminate third-tier candidates. Same thing for Hillary’s third in Iowa. NYPost here claims Clintons are no longer the life of the Democratic Party. Report of their death a tad premature. The road to the White House is littered with candidates who won the early tests. This result, and next week’s, gives battered first-tier candidates something to fight back from. A lot of commentary this morning hails earth-shaking idealistic message sent by Iowans re Obama, Huckabee. Some commentary makes the point Bill made re a certain screamer four years ago: “Go ahead, fall in love …”
Vodkapundit’s epistle to the Iowans: “What the f*** is wrong with you people?” VP succinct makes several spot-on points, with one error. In 1976, Iowa Democrats actually preferred “uncommitted” to Jimmy Carter.
To answer Robert, not well. I’m pretty sure the crusty hillfolk of New Hampshire are smarter than the corn-fed goobers of Iowa, with the possible exception of Iowahawk.
Quick roundup:
Best coverage is always on the ground. Iowahawk. Hawkeyed Iowan hawks up an eyeful.
Surber does the math, Dems vs GOP, finds GOP wanting: “Bad.”
Gateway’s roundup kicks off with Rollins, loose cannon gets a “sheesh!”
Tigerhawk: Gee, thanks Iowa. “The Hawkeye State has not been helpful. If the nominees really turn out to be Huckabee and Obama, the paternalists will have won long before November. And the jihadis will not have done too badly either.”
Captains Quarters: Hillary re-messages. Can she learn what Bill always knew? “Hillary is about to find out a basic truth of politics and romance: desperation is not an aphrodisiac.”
Driscoll: Obama 1, Hillary, Black Democratic Establishment O, and Iowa, a Mormon in the Doghouse, notes McCain looks like he’s having Huckabee for dinner.
Reuters: Clinton, McCain lead in latest NH poll
WSJ Wash Wire: Beginning of the End for Romney? I suggest that’s as premature as announcing Elvis is dead.
David Brooks, a little breathless after being shaken by two earthquakes. Same guy who declares it a post-war election now slaps an affirmative action label on it:
And Americans are not going to want to see this stopped. When an African-American man is leading a juggernaut to the White House, do you want to be the one to stand up and say No?
Race. There’s a great criterion for selecting a president. Huckabee, meanwhile, is a bold new folksy and likeable evangelical, the anti-conservative conservative who’s caught up with America. Something like that, I dunno.
Peggy Noonan at Opinion Journal notes the dissing of the living Elvis, which is, granted no small Obama achievement and something people on both sides of the aisle can enjoy this morning. Noonan calls Huckabee more Jim Carville than Jim Nabors, but suggests the folksy populist charm and laid-off co-worker identification fall short of being relevant to the job description:
They believe that Mr. Huckabee, the minister who speaks their language, shares, down to the bone, their anxieties, concerns and beliefs. They fear that the other Republican candidates are caught up in a million smaller issues–taxing, spending, the global economy, Sunnis and Shia–and missing the central issue: again, our culture. They are populists who vote Republican, and as I have read their letters, I have felt nothing but respect.
But there are two problems. One is that while the presidency, as an office, can actually make real changes in the areas of economic and foreign policy, the federal government has a limited ability to change the culture of America. That is something conservatives used to know. Second, I’m sorry to say it is my sense that Mr. Huckabee is not so much leading a movement as riding a wave. One senses he brilliantly discerned and pursued an underserved part of the voting demographic, and went for it. Clever fellow. To me, the tipoff was “Don’t Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?”
My sense is that Mr. Huckabee’s good supporters deserve a better leader.
Reid Wilson at RCP looks at how Clinton and Romney come back.
Clinton’s initial inevitability is gone. In fact, she might reasonably be considered an underdog now …
Bill always did well as hangdog underdog. We’ll see about Hill.
While she may no longer be the odds-on favorite to win the contest, Clinton remains in strong position. She has the money and the organization to continue, even without overwhelming victories, until large states vote on February 5. But it is in New Hampshire where she should make her stand. Clinton has the Democratic establishment behind her …
Importantly, Clinton still has a significant lead in New Hampshire, something she did not enjoy in Iowa for a month leading up to the caucuses. With a renewed advertising campaign, a new message of change and a bigger focus on turning out her voters on Tuesday, Clinton could reinvigorate her campaign with a win. If she doesn’t, Obama will pull out a second victory in a row, and his momentum could begin to prove insurmountable.
On the GOP side,
Romney enjoys a major advantage over both Huckabee and McCain. While both have seen upticks in fundraising in recent weeks, Romney can still write himself a major seven- or eight-figure check and play serious offense in New Hampshire. And if he can win New Hampshire, the ability to self-bank roll will come in handy down the road. “Congratulations for the first round to Mike,” Romney said on Fox News last night after the results were clear. Romney’s campaign account makes him a George Foreman-like figure: He can survive a lost round financially, at least, and with a Granite State win, Romney will be back in the electoral game.
Meanwhile, Michael Gerson at Washington Post, via RCP, on the Democratic state of denial and how it may come back to bite them as the election proceeds:
WASHINGTON — If 2006 was a year of denial for the Bush administration — demonstrating that patience in pursuit of a failing military strategy is not a virtue — 2007 was a period of awakening. Like Abraham Lincoln before him, the president discovered the cathartic pleasure of replacing generals. In Petraeus, Bush found his Grant. He also found that war, like politics, is the art of adjustment.
As the political blitzkrieg of 2008 begins in earnest, it is the Democrats who, on a number of key issues, are living in a state of denial.
On Iraq, education, taxes, Gerson says.
In 2008, Democrats are convinced that their time has come. But elections are not won by appealing to the clock. Political vacuums are filled by ideas. And Democrats in denial require some adjustments of their own.
You’d think 2007 might have taught them that, but apparently not yet.
Topics: pols
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:43 am Comments (3) on Friday, January 4, 2008
3 Responses to “Wild Ride”
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January 4th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
OK, you are up in New England. How is Hucklebuck going to play in NH?
January 4th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Anyone who thinks Hillary won’t bring out the long knives hasn’t been paying attention. Personally, I wouldn’t vote for Obama on a bet, but the one good thing he’s done in Iowa is demonstrate that a black man can run for president and have a chance of winning, and he’s also broken the perceived hold over black voters that the black caucus (guided by the 60’s era philosophy of Jackson and Sharpton) supposedly had. (Okay, that’s two good things Obama did.)
As for Huckabee… come on. Do we really want a president named Huckabee?
January 5th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Change? To what?