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Election

Apparently not over til its over. America still has Hill to kick around. NYT: 

With solid support from registered Democrats and the backing of women, who deserted her in Iowa, Senator Clinton beat Senator Barack Obama of Illinois with a margin that — if not particularly wide — was enough for her campaign to claim a resounding victory.

The political intensity of her victory was magnified by a weekend of polls and rapturous packed rallies for Mr. Obama that suggested Mrs. Clinton was in dire shape, particularly after Mr. Obama’s drubbing of her in Iowa.

Mrs. Clinton won in a state that has always had a warm spot for the Clinton family. There was no end to the comparisons to how New Hampshire saved Bill Clinton’s campaign in 1992, when he too seemed on the verge of defeat. (In that case, though, Mr. Clinton declared victory after coming in second with 25 percent after being as low as 19 percent in polls.)

Political theatrics aside, there were lessons from her victory on Tuesday that could prove instructive as Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama head into this new phase of the campaign, with 25 states voting in the next four weeks. “So we’re going to take what we’ve learned here in New Hampshire and we’re going to rally on and make our case,” Mrs. Clinton said.

Mrs. Clinton solidified her position with Democrats, while Mr. Obama enjoyed support from independent voters, as he did in Iowa. But many of the states where the Democrats are heading allow only Democrats to vote in their party’s primary.

So much for Obama’s five minutes of inevitability. Apparently its Super Tuesday after all, and it remains a open question whether Dem voters want to throw charming naivete or warmed-over cynicism against the GOP nominee in November. 

Whoever that’s going to be. Still completely wide open. On the GOP side, with McCain’s expected win, the big questions are whether Mitt hangs in and what’s happening to Rudy, reportedly slipping in his firewall state of Florida where Hucks reportedly now leads. I’m guessing Mitt hangs in and Rudy comes back into contention. A month is a long time.

NH Dem numbers here.

NH GOP numbers here.

Here are some interesting exit poll numbers.  CNN finds 50 percent of Republicans satisfied with the Bush admin, another 33 percent dissatisfied but not angry.  That doesn’t bode well for Aw Hucks. 

Meanwhile, re Fred, Surber notes that when the tinfoil helmet candidate outdraws you,  you’ve got a critical decision to make re your position on porcelain. Surber also makes the cruel observation that the Dems are outdrawing the GOP by big numbers. But Surber is none the less heartily grateful to New Hampshire. Keep it up, my gap-toothed hillbilly friend, and I may have to change the header on this post ”Surber.”

Fortunately, I’m spared that for now by the availability of non-holler insight and analysis via RCP:

CBS: Re-inevitable, Clinton strategists say Obama wave has crested and turned.

Victor Davis Hanson on the tears of a Clinton, who can never be underestimated.

Novak: McCain’s the likely nominee.

John Ellis at RCP: Huck has Mo. When losing is winning. It’s a complicated reading of the tea leaves, but it’s still a very complicated race that could break in any direction.

Meanwhile, I’m still waiting for the foreign policy shoe to drop.

Topics: pols

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 7:36 am on Wednesday, January 9, 2008

5 Responses to “Election”

1. Robert Says:
   January 9th, 2008 at 9:10 am

   Can we stop pretending that polling produces useful information?

2. mojo Says:
   January 9th, 2008 at 10:12 am

   Hey, get with the “Full Employment for Pollsters” plan, pal…

3. RebeccaH Says:
   January 9th, 2008 at 11:13 am

   Did I say it or not? The people are gonna do what the people are gonna do.

4. tanstaafl Says:
   January 9th, 2008 at 12:01 pm

   I agree with Surber about Fred.

   Surber complains Fred’s not campaigning, but nearly every time I see him (rather often on the telly) he speaks my language nearly perfectly.

   Maybe Fred just doesn’t have it in him to smile into the face of the…”she weeped, I switched back and voted for her” or “…if Oprah likes him, I’m in her book club”…crowd of American voters.

   Can’t say as I blame him.

5. heather Says:
   January 9th, 2008 at 1:12 pm

   Checking in from the North: what with Iowa, NH, Hill’s tears, and Britney, who cares about a li’l ol’ confrontation between the US Navy and the Iranians?? And Bush is in Israel, hoping that he can bring ‘peace’, whilst dodging missiles that were made in Iran.

   Britney nude pictures have been sold to some Aussi newspaper for some 57,000 dollars. Now THAT is news!

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