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One Down

Thompson bails. Well, it wasn’t like he was exactly running, anyway, as suggested by this cruel Flintstonian doggerel.

Meanwhile, the Huckster’s experiencing difficulties. And McCain, taking not so friendly fire:

Dan re McCain: Get Riehl.

Malkin re McCain: “Cynicism on steroids with a speedball.”

Stormin’ Norman, cynical steroid junkie.

Horserace Blog’s Jay Cost at RCP:

McCain is staunchly opposed by a vocal group of conservatives who view him as an unreliable maverick. You can hear their most prominent advocate on the radio every weekday from noon to three eastern. You can see them in the exit polls, which show that McCain has not yet won a (statistically significant) plurality of Republican voters, nor those who consider themselves “very conservative.” In years past, opposition to the Republican frontrunner tends to fade away after South Carolina, with the supporters of the loser accepting that their guy can’t prevail and reconciling themselves with the victor. But that does not seem to be happening this year. There is a faction of the party that seems unwilling to accept McCain. It might be able to stop him.

It should be clear from the nomination rules that somebody could find enough delegates to oppose McCain on the convention floor - even if he did not offer a serious challenge early in the process. From the unpledged delegates, to the delegates allocated by conventions, proportional allocation, and the congressional district delegates - there are a lot of ways to win convention support even as somebody else “wins” states. Eventually, an opposition candidate would have to break through with outright victories. He cannot win the Republican nomination underground - but the way delegates are allocated could keep the race close until he breaks through. Importantly, about 65% of South Carolina voters preferred somebody other than John McCain. This tracks with his standing in the national polls. So, the anti-McCain faction might have an audience - if it can find a candidate to rally behind. Also of importance: 95% of all delegates have yet to be allocated. And even after Super Tuesday, 45% will remain to be allocated. The faction has time to make its case.

I am not saying it will be successful. McCain has a very strong chance to win the nomination. One feather in his cap is that opposition to him does not cut cleanly along any ideological line. Rick Santorum is vehemently opposed to him, but Tom Coburn just endorsed him. Another asset is that the Republican delegate allocation system is much less charitable to losers than the Democratic scheme - this gives the opposition less time to get its act together.

My point is simply that the opposition to McCain could prove to be important. For better or worse, the old maverick from Arizona has inspired intense opposition in some quarters. In a nomination system such as this - that opposition might ultimately be able to stop him.

Debra Saunders at SF Chron: Romney’s the real conservative? Ha.

Here’s my cynical steroid speedball: Sooner or later everyone’s going to have to figure out which devil has a smile in his eyes.

Topics: pols

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 6:54 am on Wednesday, January 23, 2008

5 Responses to “One Down”

1. Robert Says:
   January 23rd, 2008 at 9:06 am

   “which devil has a smile in his eyes.”

   What, if anything, does that mean?

2. Robert Says:
   January 23rd, 2008 at 11:46 am

   Another reason Romney is better than McCain:

   “even Sen. McCain, in a debate on Jan. 5, asked, “Why shouldn’t we be able to reimport drugs from Canada?” answering himself, “It’s because of the power of the pharmaceutical companies.” When former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney urged him not to cast the drug makers as the “big bad guys,” Sen. McCain countered, “Well, they are.”

   Drug Companies Face Political, Scientific Attacks by Anna Wilde Mathews and Avery Johnson in Wall Street Journal on January 23, 2008 at Page A1
   ====================
   Romney believes in free enterprise.

3. RebeccaH Says:
   January 23rd, 2008 at 6:48 pm

   I think I know what you mean about the devil and his smile, Jules.

   The bottom line for me is this: If I have to choose between any of the Democratic disasters and John McCain, I will go with McCain, even though I don’t trust him to act in my best interests in all matters (specifically, immigration, fiscal reform, any other domestic issue). He still beats the Dhimms on foreign policy, which puts him but one step ahead of them. In that scenario, I’ll put my trust in demographics, or party, or poll pressure, whatever it takes to get him to bend to the will of the majority of citizens, however we manage to grab his ear.

4. Jules Crittenden Says:
   January 23rd, 2008 at 8:30 pm

   Old homespun saw: If you have to pick between two devils, choose the one with the smile in his eye. Lousy saying works for lousy choices.

5. The_Real_JeffS Says:
   January 23rd, 2008 at 10:44 pm

   Talk about choosing the lesser of two evils…..

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