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Defeat

Still possible if the next administration and the American people refuse to face reality. Bushwacker Anthony Cordesman on Iraq, Afghanistan: 

No one can return from the battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan, as I recently did, without believing that these are wars that can still be won. They are also clearly wars that can still be lost, but visits to the battlefield show that these conflicts are very different from the wars being described in American political campaigns and most of the debates outside the United States.

These conflicts involve far more than combat between the United States and its allies against insurgent movements such as al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Taliban. Meaningful victory can come only if tactical military victories end in ideological and political victories and in successful governance and development. Dollars are as important as bullets, and so are political accommodation, effective government services and clear demonstrations that there is a future that does not need to be built on Islamist extremism.

…

Military victory is far more marginal in Afghanistan. NATO and international troops can still win tactically, but the Taliban is sharply expanding its support areas as well as its political and economic influence and control in Afghanistan. It has scored major gains in Pakistan, which is clearly the more important prize for al-Qaeda and has more Pashtuns than Afghanistan. U.S. commanders privately warn that victory cannot be attained without more troops, without all members of NATO and the International Security Assistance Force fully committing their troops to combat, and without a much stronger and consistent effort by the Pakistani army in both the federally administered tribal areas in western Pakistan and the Baluchi area in the south.

What the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan have in common is that it will take a major and consistent U.S. effort throughout the next administration at least to win either war. Any American political debate that ignores or denies the fact that these are long wars is dishonest and will ensure defeat. There are good reasons that the briefing slides in U.S. military and aid presentations for both battlefields don’t end in 2008 or with some aid compact that expires in 2009. They go well beyond 2012 and often to 2020.

If the next president, Congress and the American people cannot face this reality, we will lose.

Last summer, you’ll  recall Cordesman was somewhat less enthused about Iraq’s prospects than his travel companions O’Hanlon and Pollack. It’s not so much that he’s changed his view as he’s facing the reality that he won’t have George Bush to kick around much longer, and there are actually things worse for Iraq and Afghanistan than the Bush administration.

Topics: Afghanistan, Iraq, pols

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:50 pm on Sunday, February 24, 2008

2 Responses to “Defeat”

1. Americaneocon Says:
   February 24th, 2008 at 10:07 pm

   I think Cordesman’s different from the likes of O’Hanlen et al. Of all the strategic analysts I study, I place tremendous trust in Cordesman assessments. He’s just scrupulous in his even-handedness - a quality that’s hard to deny, even when I disagee with his conclusions.

   Maybe he is a Bushwacker and I didn’t notice, but I remember him offerning virtually the same type of (dour) analyses back during the first Gulf War, when he emerged as a strategic studies media celebrity.

   He is a little pessimistic still, I admit. But he’s coming around - hooah!!

2. Fatty Bolger Says:
   February 25th, 2008 at 10:42 am

   Now somebody please tell the American people. Please? Somebody? Anybody?

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