Mush Out
Shortly, reports the UK Telegraph. That and what follows Mush rounded up:
Pervez Musharraf is considering stepping down as president of Pakistan rather than waiting to be forced out by his victorious opponents, aides have told The Sunday Telegraph.
One close confidante said that the president believed he had run out of options after three of the main parties who triumphed in last week’s poll announced they would form a coalition government together, and also pledged to reinstate the country’s chief justice and 60 other judges sacked by Mr Musharraf in November.
“He has already started discussing the exit strategy for himself,” a close friend said. “I think it is now just a matter of days and not months because he would like to make a graceful exit on a high.”
According to senior aides, Mr Musharraf wants to avoid a power struggle with the newly elected parliament, in which his opponents will be close to the two-thirds majority needed to impeach him and remove him from office.
“He may have made many mistakes, but he genuinely tried to build the country and he doesn’t want to destroy it just for the sake of his personal office,” said an official close to the president.
Mr Musharraf, who stepped down as head of the army late last year, had called for a harmonious coalition after the defeat of his party - which won just 38 out of 272 national assembly seats in last Sunday’s elections - but his political rivals have demanded he go.
Officials said he had considered resigning immediately after the election results were known, but had been persuaded by party loyalists that his sudden departure could precipitate a crisis.
In an article published last week he insisted that he would serve out his five-year presidential term.
Behind the scenes, his staff attempted to broker an agreement with Asif Zardari, who became leader of the main Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) following the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto.
Yet despite pressure from America, which has relied on Mr Musharraf’s support for its war on terror, Mr Zardari refused to strike a deal.
He declined despite also claiming to have been threatened by Mr Musharraf’s allies that the government would revive long-standing corruption charges against him.
“I have seen these jails and this is not something new to me,” said Mr Zardari. “I fought all these fake cases instituted against me with courage and never disappointed anyone by asking for a pardon.
“I’m ready to fight it out again, and will never disappoint anyone.”
PPP officials said that any deal with Mr Musharraf would have dented the party’s public support and it was better to try to govern with the help of the other main parties.
“It doesn’t make any sense for us to sink with the dying man,” said Nisar Khuhro, a senior PPP leader, referring to Mr Musharraf.
Jamil Soomro, a PPP spokesman, said: “He has betrayed everyone since the very outset and we have no guarantee that he would not betray us once he stabilised his position.”
They’ve got democracy, Islamists and unpopular dictator out. Fine. I hope the people’s new government can get organized to do something about the issues in the tribal areas. Mush didn’t set a high bar.
So much for the old boss. Meet the new bosses.
Telegraph with some speculation on who’s president next. Tele likes PPP’s Aitsan Ahsan, big in a the Pak lawyers movement that bitted heads with Mush in the fall crisis. That’s wonderful, but nothing on who’s interested in securing Pakistan’s borders and dealing with the Islamist threat. Newsweek on who’s up for prime minister. Newsweek likes PPP’s Makhdoom Amin Fahim, said to be scrupulous honest, and “known to favor close military and economic ties with the US.” So far so good?
Like most other Pakistanis, though, he’s convinced his country needs to recalibrate its relationship with Washington—particularly regarding America’s aggressive strategy against extremists on the Afghan border. Blaming the former Army chief, President Pervez Musharraf, for taking a disastrous course in the tribal areas, the new civilian leaders think they can do better by negotiating with tribal elders.
…
Will Fahim change course in the tribal areas? Washington’s top ranks seem unworried about what the new civilian leaders might decide. “We’re going to let them have their rounds of discussions,” says a senior administration official who was not authorized to speak on the record. “We still expect the [Pakistani] Army is going to take the necessary military action.” Count on an interesting transition.
Baltimore Sun, which is behind the Mush exit curve and still talking power struggle, sees a political accommodation under Zardari with the NW tribal leaders and thinks that’s an improvement. BaltSun notes that $11 billion in military aid and intel sharing didn’t quite do it, but as I recall, neither did cutting political deals.
As for Pakistan’s role in the terrorism fight, Mr. Zardari has said he favors a political accommodation with northwest tribal leaders, and that may improve things. Mr. Musharraf, supported by billions in U.S. aid, used the military and intelligence service to rout suspected terrorists from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. But critics have charged that the U.S. hasn’t gotten all that it paid for.
As significant as Mr. Musharraf’s election loss were the results for Pakistan’s main Muslim religious party - it won only a handful of seats, reflecting Pakistanis’ overriding preference for a secular government.
The political power has shifted in Islamabad, and U.S. policy needs to reflect that. The United States must maintain strong ties with Pakistan and use its financial aid (with greater accountability) to promote and strengthen democratic institutions as well as fight terrorism. But it first must persuade Pakistan’s new leaders of our shared concerns and interests.
Scotsman with a little more of Zardari’s thinking on that. It’s a tad enigmatic.
Although the Islamists were trounced in the elections, the ferocity with which the Pakistan Army targeted Islamic militants fuelled the strong protest vote against Musharraf.
Both Zardari and Sharif will be more responsive to the public consensus, shunning a heavy hand by the military.
Zardari has already criticised the anti-terrorism policies of Musharraf, saying he had played a double game that had led to an increase in militancy. “We feel they in the government are running with the hare and hunting with the hounds,” he said.
Zardari said the morale of the army had plummeted, asserting that only a popularly elected government with the backing of parliament could reverse that.
He added that a counterinsurgency should be waged by the police, not the army, in the tribal areas, and that Pakistan had to train and equip its police forces to curb much of the lawlessness.
Zardari said his party would seek talks with the militants in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, where the Taliban and al-Qaeda have carved out a stronghold, as well as with the nationalist militants who have battled the Pakistani army in Baluchistan Province.
“We will have a dialogue with those who are up in the mountains and those who are not in parliament,” said Zardari, who argued that the Pakistani public needed to understand it was not America’s war they were fighting, but a threat to their own nation.
Although some analysts saw opportunities for the US if a new civilian government could persuade Pakistanis to get behind the fight against the militants, past attempts to deal with the militants have left them stronger, and any policy that is too accommodating is likely to raise concern in Washington.
Pak Daily Times on western mistrust of “wild card” Nawaz Sharif.
Ahmed Rashid at BBC weighs in on the power struggle, role of the Pak army, the lay of the land in Pakistan’s four provinces, the neighbors, and seems to suggest a soiftly, softly approach by Washington could ultimately see GWOT benefits:
Washington should also consider the degree to which the new government is likely to be strongly welcomed in the region.
President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan will be hoping to see a real crackdown on the Taleban leadership that have been given sanctuary in Pakistan and he knows and has a good relationship with many of the new leaders in the PPP, the ANP and the PML-N.
India will be hoping to see greater progress in confidence-building measures between the two states that could help start a dialogue on resolving the Kashmir dispute.
Iran will be less apprehensive that Pakistan may do a deal under the table with the Americans to help subvert Iran.
Russia, China and the five Central Asian states are likely to support the new process in the hope that it will bring stability and end the army’s on-off support for Islamic militancy which has allowed Islamic militants from their countries to set up shop in Pakistan’s tribal areas.
There is plenty of reason to argue that Pakistan has benefited hugely from the elections.
Much will now depend on how willing Mr Musharraf is to accept defeat gracefully.
According to the Telegraph, that part is falling into place.
MEMRI’s quick Pak editorial roundup here.
Meanwhile, Captains Journal looks at the anti-Islamist vote, isn’t much impressed, rounds up some Pak Islamism, New Taliban analysis.
Topics: Pakistan
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:35 am on Sunday, February 24, 2008
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