Yeah, But
Kuhn at Politico thinks last month’s Pew poll showing growing confidence in the Iraq war effort will remake the presidential debate. With Dems still pushing unconditional withdrawal, independents will swing McCainward. What Kuhn fails to note, however, is the return of the “Yeah, But” narrative in war reportage.
“There is no military solution,” Clinton is prone to say, a sentiment echoed by Obama. Obama has also proposed an end date for “removing all combat brigades” from Iraq.
The uptick in public support is a promising sign for Republican candidates who have been bludgeoned over the Bush administration’s war policies. But no candidate stands to gain more than McCain.
“How could Democrats possibly hand McCain a better issue than to let him run on his record of advocating a robust U.S. presence in Iraq with all the positive battlefield news that is filtering out of that country?” asked Michael O’Hanlon, a national security adviser at the Brookings Institution who has been at the center of the Iraq debate since the war’s outset.
“Thinking about where we were at the time of the congressional elections, it’s ironic that the Iraq issue could actually be the one that most favors the Republican and most other issues — including most foreign policy issues — could most favor the Democrats,” O’Hanlon added. “Yet Democrats keep wanting to fight the Iraq debate.”
All good. Kuhn notes that a surge in violence could reverse perceptions and reactions in the notoriously fickle and easily swayed electorate. What Kuhn doesn’t note is that over the past week, with several violent incidents, the “Yeah, But” narrative is being fired up again. Yeah, violence is still way down. But despite the military’s insistence of dramatic progress, some bombs just went off. High successful military campaigns and the turning of the Sunni tribes against al-Qaeda took months to gain any recognition. Al-Qaeda, by all accounts still very much on the ropes, gets off a handful of attacks, and the terrorism amplifier kicks in:
AP: Iraqis Fear Return to Violent Days. If you’ve been following the AP, you know that each bomb blast in recent weeks has been accompanied by lengthy listings of incidents and several paragraphs of military insistence that violence remains anywhere from 60 percent or more below last year. This story leads with unease — apparently not sufficient to make Baghdadis change their routines – puts the military back on the defensive, and amplifies a handful of deadly incidents. It’s noteworthy that AP, contrary to the ill-disguised antagonism and skepticism with which it covered the surge, balances that at the back end with a good deal of space devoted to Iraqi concerns about the departure of Americans and O’Hanlon’s observation that a couple of blasts does not a firestorm make.
AP: Iraq Violence Sees Spike. Doubt cast.
AP: 3 US soldiers die. Countdown to grim milestone just sped up. Pew helpfully chimes in with a poll that indicates Americans haven’t kept a running tally in their heads. Don’t worry, within the month, the 4,000 mark coinciding with the 5th anniversary of the war, they’ll be reminded.
NYT: Stalemate. Numbers game helpfully enhanced by recounting of recent attacks doesn’t bother to note the key shift of the populace to favor the United States.
The bizarre dynamic of American reporting in this war is that terrorists, no matter how hamstrung they may be, will always applauded for their resilience. The United States military and its allies, no matter how much progress they make in hamstringing terrorists, will always be fighting a rearguard action. The dramatic developments of the past year are typically dispensed with in boilerplate, often presented in a manner to indicate the U.S. military’s role was incidental. Sunni tribes turned, Shiite militias stood down. The U.S. military’s role in encouraging them to do that is rarely noted. The most critical measure of success or failure that the military is constantly required to address remains the strategically least relevant: the tragic tally of isolated incidents and death.
Least relevant, except that in the hands of al-Qaeda’s amplification service, when that is the narrative and measure that is presented to the American public and American politicians, it can and will influence the political debate. The sense of unease AP describes in Baghdad is precisely what al-Qaeda wants to create … in the American electorate.
It was astonishing while it lasted:
The prior, briefly suspended narrative here:
AP Analysis: War is Hard, We’re Depressed (Can We Leave Now?)
Dumpster Diving for Hidden Treasures
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:08 am on Thursday, March 13, 2008
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March 13th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Web Reconnaissance for 03/13/2008
A short recon of whats out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
March 13th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Cables, dispatches and memoranda
Cables, dispatches and memoranda for 3/13/2008…
March 13th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
[…] volume level of negativity will not be forced onto the front pages as the general approaches? As Jules Crittenden describes it, it’s the “yeah but” syndrome: What Kuhn doesn’t note is that over the past […]
March 13th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Public Support for Iraq at Highest Since 2006
Crittenden’s a journalist, so his inside perspective is particulary important. But as I concluded in my earlier post, “This meme on the “demand” for withdrawal will continue, and I’ll continue to debunk it.” The “meme,” of course, is the endles…
March 14th, 2008 at 12:07 am
I see the MSM is doing its usual work for the enemy. We can expect more of this as we get closer to the election.
March 14th, 2008 at 6:41 am
[…] Jules Crittenden notes as violence goes down there is a simultaneous increase in ‘yeah but’ reporting. […]
March 22nd, 2008 at 7:36 pm
[…] Jules Crittenden - Kuhn at Politico thinks last month’s Pew poll showing growing confidence in the Iraq war effort will remake the presidential debate. With Dems still pushing unconditional withdrawal, independents will swing McCainward. What Kuhn fails to note, however, is… […]