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Surge of Opportunity

Sadr makes a move, shutting down neighborhoods and making demands. McClatchy thinks this means the surge is about to unravel: 

BAGHDAD — A cease-fire critical to the improved security situation in Iraq appeared to unravel Monday when a militia loyal to radical Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al Sadr began shutting down neighborhoods in west Baghdad and issuing demands of the central government.

Simultaneously, in the strategic southern port city of Basra, where Sadr’s Mahdi militia is in control, the Iraqi government launched a crackdown in the face of warnings by Sadr’s followers that they’ll fight government forces if any Sadrists are detained. By 1 a.m. Arab satellite news channels reported clashes between the Mahdi Army and police in Basra.

The freeze on offensive activity by Sadr’s Mahdi Army has been a major factor behind the recent drop in violence in Iraq, and there were fears that the confrontation that’s erupted in Baghdad and Basra could end the lull in attacks, assassinations, kidnappings and bombings.

As the U.S. military recorded its 4,000th death in Iraq, U.S. officials in Baghdad warned again Monday that drawing down troops too quickly could collapse Iraq’s fragile security situation.

Pentagon officials said that military leaders are watching for any signs of backsliding as they consider whether to keep drawing down troops below pre-surge levels.

President Bush spoke about the death toll, saying, “One day, people will look back at this moment in history and say, ‘Thank God there were courageous people willing to serve, because they laid the foundations for peace for generations to come.’ ”

Even as he spoke, the situation on the ground was rapidly worsening.

On Sunday, a barrage of at least 17 rockets hit the heavily fortified Green Zone and surrounding neighborhoods, where both the U.S. and Iraqi government headquarters are housed, according to police. Most of them were launched from the outskirts of Sadr City and Bayaa, both Mahdi Army-controlled neighborhoods.

I suppose you can say that’s a worsening situation, if what you’re looking for is enough peace and quiet to put a figleaf on a quick exit. It’s an improving situation if what you need is the spectre of war without end to justify a cut-and-run.

But it sounds like it could also be a chance to make up for past opportunities missed, deal with some unfinished business. Wack al-Sadr and destroy the Mahdi Army. That would complicate anyone’s exit plans, but if you’re interested in a free and stable Iraq, it hardly seems to make sense to leave the place with a major illegal Iranian-backed force in place. This report doesn’t address the schism between al-Sadr’s better-behaved loyalists and the hardliners, and it will be interesting to see if there has been any evolution in that situation.

Reuters: Sadr threatens “civil revolt.”

Meanwhile, in operations vs. al Qaeda, here’s Roggio in Mosul, Yon in Ninevah and Totten with some good Karmah. Remember to support independent journalism.

Topics: Iraq

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 7:56 am on Tuesday, March 25, 2008

8 Responses to “Surge of Opportunity”

1. Potfry Says:
   March 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am

   Wait a second– weren’t liberals saying that the surge wasn’t working before this? So is it even less effective now?

   The joy in left-ville over any hint that the seeds of chaos are sprouting in Iraq is both palpable and nauseating.

2. ikez78 Says:
   March 25th, 2008 at 9:52 am

   I am sick and tired of the hoping for disasters in Iraq to help the Dems and the celebrating of 4000 deaths in the way the press covered it.

3. Martini Revolution » Is teh Surge losing its Magick? Says:
   March 25th, 2008 at 10:49 am

   […] least one Wingnut war fanatic views the onset of a full civil war in Iraq as an “opportunity”: Sounds like it could […]

4. Fatty Bolger Says:
   March 25th, 2008 at 11:30 am

   The almost desperate desire for things to fall apart in Iraq comes through loud and clear, doesn’t it?

   I wonder if Iran might be behind this. It would fit with what Petraeus was saying the other day.

   The other possibility is that Sadr is preparing for some sort of negotation with the government, or even the US. I believe he’s done this before.

5. American Power Says:
   March 25th, 2008 at 11:35 am

   Antiwar Left Ecstatic as Surge is Questioned

   “Why haven’t the Democrats declared victory in Iraq and suggested now is the time to go home? The answer is that they have become obsessed with fighting the last war - the last political war against George W. Bush…”

6. RebeccaH Says:
   March 25th, 2008 at 2:40 pm

   I’m with Jules. Drop a big ol’ concrete bomb on Sadr’s head, and a lot of problems will be solved.

7. SoldiersDad Says:
   March 26th, 2008 at 12:07 pm

   Neither AQIZ or Mehdi Army can prevail without Baghdad.
   AQIZ can’t survive without Mosul.
   Mehdi Army can’t survive without Basra.

   Looks to me that someone decided to take Basra away from Moqtada’s goons.

   War for Dummies - page 87…if there is no spring or fall offensive…the war is over.

8. Gregory Purcell Says:
   March 31st, 2008 at 9:38 am

   “Wack al-Sadr and destroy the Mahdi Army.”

   but Maliki just got his butt kicked.

   Mar 30, 2008 08:32 EST

   NAJAF, Iraq, March 30 (Reuters) - Followers of Moqtada al-Sadr will not hand over their weapons as part of a move to end fighting in Iraq, a top Sadr aide said.

   The aide, Hazem al-Araji, also said that Sadr’s followers had received a guarantee from the government that it would end “random arrests” of Sadr followers. He spoke to journalists at Sadr’s office in the holy city of Najaf after distributing a statement from Sadr calling on followers to stop fighting.

   (Reporting by Khaled Farhan; writing by Peter Graff; editing by Ross Colvin)

   Source: Reuters North American News Service

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