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The good news is, Iraqi forces are heavily engaged with the Mahdi Army with U.S. troops in a supporting role, all over the place. The weird part is, al-Maliki has supposedly taken a lead role in directing operations against his erstwhile bedfellow al-Sadr. The key question, in all matters requiring an element of trust in either al-Maliki or al-Sadr, is which one can you throw farther? The Sadrists are claiming it’s all political, to cut them out of provinicial elections, and if al-Maliki’s that interested, there’s got to be a sleazy political angle to it.* On the other hand, if it in fact has the effect of ending Shiite infighting and lawlessness, and edges out Iran, then there is a distinctly unsleazy strategic angle to it. Al-Maliki has given the Mahdi Army 72 hours to lay down their weapons. Disarming illegal militias is a legitimate act of government. Hard to know the answers to all the questions at this distance, and neither the reporting nor analysis is that good. But here it is:
UPDATE, via Hotair, trouble in paradise? Reports that the Mahdi Army is getting the upperhand. That wouldn’t be good.
NYT declares the offensive as stalled, but fails to provide anything to back that up. Sounds more like 30,000 troops are engaged in heavy fighting, and an ultimatum has been issued. NYT fears a repeat of the 2004 Najaf fight. Me too, though not for the same reason. NYT fears a fight that would make it difficult to send home U.S. troops and usher in a new period of violence. I fear a fight that ends prematurely, leaving the Mahdi Army intact and Sadr claiming a new victory.
Once the AP gets around to indirectly acknowledging that the ”tens of thousands of Shiites” who took to the streets to protest the government in “mounting anger” are in fact Sadrists, there are a few snippets of useful information in this al-Sadr water-tote of an article. Sheesh, Reuters, what’s with the “thousands of supporters of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr” … are you trying to embarrass the AP? WPost also conspires to make AP look bad.
Here’s a waterboy for the Iranians who calls the attacks on the Sadrists a “failure” of Petraeus’ strategy of avoiding that fight. Maybe. Or maybe, with al-Qaeda largely out of the way and Iraqi forces now stronger, it’s an indication of success all around. Maybe more of a failure of the Mahdi Army to adopt the goals of civil society in Iraq.
Speaking of which, AFP: Pentagon calls it a byproduct of surge success.
Cordesman via the Swamp: No good guys, no bad guys. And as usual, no particularly helpful ideas, either.
TIME, in an uninformative not particularly analytical analysis rues a charade that may end badly. TIME likes the ceasefire, even if it is a Potemkin ceasefire that leaves dangerous militias intact to cause future problems, and doesn’t like the “charade” of operations that threaten the ceasefire. Look on the bright side, TIME, Al-Sadr could get his long-overdue wacking.
A key issue, if the Iraqis and the Americans want to go to war with the Mahdi Army, is whether al-Sadr can be separated from them, and if not, whether he can be separated from his support within the population. May prove more complex than separating Sunnis from al-Qaeda. Apparently, given the level of engagement and the rhetoric, the U.S. and the Iraqi government must think so. If not, and the United States is supporting a naked factional power grab, there could be trouble.
* In comments, longtime reader/blogger Major John remarks:
Without going into too much detail - I am close to some of the ops ongoing… This is not a sleazy political move, this was brought on, in part, by the fed up residents of Basrah who want an end to the militia crap - kidnappings, violence, etc. Since the IA and the Coalition are pushing AQI further up North and out, the Iraqis figure it is better to confront the problem now, rather than wait for it to get worse.
The fight up North is the fight to run AQI out of Iraq. The fight down South is the fight to see which way Iraq will go once AQI is beaten. I rather like a direction where the elected government of the people is the one with the guns, and the police are on the street - not the Jaish al Mahdi goons.
No argument here. I hope it works out for the fed-up residents of Basra. If they are behind it, then it has a chance. Here’s hoping Baghdad goes the same way. Question remains: What’s al-Maliki’s sleazy political angle on this, and exactly how far can he be thrown?
Dean’s World: 72 hours or 72 virgins.
Danger Room channels al-Jazeera.
Moderate Voice: Lifting of fog reveals wrong-horse-backing = Blood for oil!
Welcome Punditeers, etal. War is Hill. Let’s cheer ourselves with a song: A Zionist-bashing bin Laden bard’s Obama opus, anyone? A rousing cheer of Pakistan Zindabad, maybe. Don’t get Blackwater feverish. It’s all over but the eye-gouging.
Topics: Iraq
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:05 am on Thursday, March 27, 2008
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March 27th, 2008 at 10:42 am
There’s two very important differences between now and 2004: the rise of the Iraqi Army, and the decline in popularity of Sadr’s militia.
Poll after poll after poll says the Iraqis rate the IA as their most trusted institution, way ahead of the coalition and even farther ahead of the militias, which are increasingly blamed for the violence.
In 2004, fighting was a win-win situation for Sadr: either he won militarily, or he gained sympathy by fighting “the occupiers.” This is now a lose-lose proposition for Sadr: he probably loses militarily, and even if he wins he loses in public perception.
That last D3 Systems found only FOUR PERCENT of Iraqis say attacks on the Iraqi Army are justified. They are going to be the backbone of the New Iraq.
March 27th, 2008 at 11:31 am
[...] Iraq, the federal army is pushing out the Mahdi Army which is the the Militia of al-Sadr. The good news is, Iraqi forces are heavily [...]
March 27th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Sir,
Without going into too much detail - I am close to some of the ops ongoing… This is not a sleazy political move, this was brought on, in part, by the fed up residents of Basrah who want an end to the militia crap - kidnappings, violence, etc. Since the IA and the Coalition are pushing AQI further up North and out, the Iraqis figure it is better to confront the problem now, rather than wait for it to get worse.
The fight up North is the fight to run AQI out of Iraq. The fight down South is the fight to see which way Iraq will go once AQI is beaten. I rather like a direction where the elected government of the people is the one with the guns, and the police are on the street - not the Jaish al Mahdi goons.
March 27th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Hard to understand why Sadr waited until the IA was trained and up and running more professionally. Also, we have more better trained troops on the ground, we are developing better Humint and we are driving AQI out of every nook and cranny. Doesn’t make sense but then Sadr has never made sense.
March 27th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
This looks like good news to me. What benefits can the Mahdi militia provide to the citizens of Basra at this point? They no longer need protection from Sunni extremists. The well meaning militants have probably already begun to hang up their boots, or are now finding themselves at odds with the criminal or power hungry elements. If this process was allowed to continue, eventually the militia would exist only for its own sake, or for use in crime. It’s good that the national government is asserting its sovereignty in the area now, rather than later.
March 27th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
[...] At Jules Crittenden’s, Major John reports: Without going into too much detail - I am close to some of the ops ongoing… This is not a sleazy [...]
March 27th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Sadr is probably not a strategic thinker. I’d say he’s acting on behalf of the Iranians to foment violence ahead of the US election.
March 27th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
[...] Via Major John, who is in a position to know exactly what he’s talking about. Without going into too much [...]
March 27th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
One way or the other, I hope we finally put Sadr behind us, which ought to have been done in the first battle with that bastard. Just think how much death and destruction we might have avoided!
This comes from a master of hindsight, of course. But I wasn’t the only one to see that we were setting ourselves up for serious problems by not taking care of him and his followers when we first had the chance. Either way, good riddance to evil rubbish.
March 27th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Hard to understand why Sadr waited until the IA was trained and up and running more professionally.
The bottom line about Sadr is that he is a thug at heart, living off of the reputation of his father. As Rebecca points out, he is not a strategic thinker. Indeed, I’m not certain that he’s the brains behind the Mahdi Army, given his very close ties with Iran. It’s possible that he’s just a (well paid) mouth piece for the Revolutionary Guard.
So any “mounting anger” is more like Islamic Rage Boy, a bunch of paid protesters screaming during “riots” staged for the benefit of MSM paid stringers who have close ties with the Mahdi Army.
March 27th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
PS: Good to hear from you, Major John! Good luck, God speed, and kill those thugs before they shoot you!!!!
March 27th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
[...] and edges out Iran, then there is a distinctly unsleazy strategic angle to it.” From “Sadr Tidings“, Jules Crittenden (27 March [...]
March 28th, 2008 at 5:25 am
[...] Crittenden does an impressive write up of some aspects of what is going on in [...]
March 28th, 2008 at 9:23 am
[...] Previously, Sadr Tidings. [...]
March 28th, 2008 at 9:23 am
[...] and edges out Iran, then there is a distinctly unsleazy strategic angle to it.” From “Sadr Tidings“, Jules Crittenden (27 March 2008). A victory for the ISCI-allied forces means edging out [...]
March 28th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Battle of the Basra
U.S. jets drop bombs in Basra. Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal gives a brief history of this latest violence. Jules Crittendon in Forward Movement has a round up from around the net of ‘Sadr Tidings’.
March 28th, 2008 at 11:23 am
[...] and 240 wounded there. However, Allahpundit says Iraqi forces may be losing ground in Basra. (Jules Crittenden has links to more commentary on the current violence, as does the SWJ [...]
March 29th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Links are good. The Badr Brigade militia is tied more closely to Iran than Mehd militia by report, so comments here are a little strange a la Iran. Maliki might have now thrown in with them. Iran, like us, has been helping many sides, according to its national interest, sort of like us.
We send terrorists into Iran. Several groups are more than willing, and some are even bandits.
It will take some time to sort out, but for sure we are tied to Maliki and he is the best hope of keeping control of oil access, which we depend on absolutely essentially.
If you want to pose it in your fantasies as whie hats and black hats, you miss the play.