Not Dead Yet
TIME, Drudge note the media willing to declare Hillary dead. So what? I’d say this is a more relevant film clip. The only way she dies soon is if the superdelegates organize themselves to club her. Maybe I’m missing something. Don’t these people know about the eye gouging? Roundup with running updates:
Here Ambinder thinks it’s all about figuring out a graceful exit for Hillary. Apparently he didn’t watch her speech last night. She fighting this to the end, and nothing that’s happened yet trumps her November argument. If anything, Obama’s poor showing with working white Americans bolsters it.
Ambinder also weighs in with, “Is the Democratic Party Cracking Up?” Exit polls indicate the polarization is critical. As much as I am cracking up over the creative new petards on which to hoist themselves the Democrats keep engineering, the effects of the Wright and small-town bitterness controversies probably couldn’t be much more amplified than they were by the pairing of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. However, if neither state is exactly a microcosm of America, Indiana probably looks more like the general than North Carolina does. More on that below.
I stepped in briefly as reporter last night for this effort, the best tidbit being that a top Dem, no Obamist, thinks a move by alarmed superdelegates to stop the bleeding and patch up the rift could come pretty quick. I don’t know. That suggests a great deal more cohesion and definitive action than we’ve seen lately out of the Dems.
NYT analysis: Options dwindling for Hillary. Do these people not know who they are dealing with? A month ago, everyone thought Obama had transformed himself into the new MLK by masterfully burying the Wright controversy with that wretched speech. Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign plans to go to the mat over Michigan and Florida, and point out how an Obama nomination comes at the disenfranchisement of millions of voters.
NYT editorial ”It’s about the White House,” leaves off the “Stupid” part, maybe because that’s the NYT ed board’s staked-out position. The ed board gets a little snide, with wiseass remarks suggesting McCain favors a 1789 allocation of proptery rights, but in its effort to encourage Dem unity makes a great point. Along with Iraq and the economy and health care, etc., the Dem assault this fall is going to be about judges. NYT ed board shudders at the thought of more “activist right wing judges,” a naked adjective misappropriation that I suspect we’ll hear again, though I also suspect they’ll find some recent left wing judicial activism won’t play well in the general. Anyway, it’s a “why can’t we all just get along” editorial. Apparently they don’t know about the eye gouging, either.
Politico looks at the racial demographic in last night’s races. One-third of NC voters are black and went heavily for Obama, pushing him to a big win. Eight in 10 Indiana voters are white and Hillary squeaked by. Politico notes the exception was white youth, who went heavily for Obama. Politico doesn’t mentioned what I heard on CNN last night, which is that elderly whites went heavily for Hillary, and secured her Indiana win. Elderly people vote more than young people. I have’t seen a good recent analysis of what last night’s voting trends might say about the general, but here’s one off the cuff. The United States does not have a one-third black population, and the Hispanic vote, which is pretty divided between Dems and the GOP, has not been friendly to Obama.
Thomas DeFrank, NYDN, also sees Hillary staying in. He calls it an ugly truth and makes it about ignorant NASCAR racism. Great anecdotal condemnation. You can quote all the extreme examples you like, but the fact is that the ugly head of racism that reared itself in this campaign wasn’t white bigotry reacting to Obama, it was black bigotry in Obama’s erstwhile kitchen cabinet. That and the bitter elitism.
Kass at ChiTrib colorfully enumerates all the reasons why you can’t call Hillary a dead cat, and throws in a great back alley knifefight with Vladimir Putin, then goes ahead and hands it to Obama. He apparently didn’t read what he just wrote and doesn’t get the eye gouging. He thinks its about math, and quotes Alexrod on same. Alexrod wishes it was just about math, where at least Obama has a fighting chance.
Andrew Sullivan: “Here’s what now seems obvious: African-American voters killed the Clinton candidacy.” I dunno. What seems obvious is Sullivan is a bigger idiot than I thought. He’s exulting in “history’s verdict,” but at last check the jury’s still out and the first draft hasn’t been entirely scribbled yet. The “coup d’grace” has not been administered yet, and if it is, it will be by reluctant party officials taking counsel from nervous superdelegates. Someone needs to explain to him that white voters disgusted with Obama’s bigotry and elitism issues are keeping her alive.
Rick Moran at Pajamas looks at some other aspects of the vote last night and what they might say about November. He doesn’t like Hillary’s chances of staying alive, though, notes her reported plans to huddle with superdelegates and sees writing on the wall. I see more eye gouging.
The Wall Street Journal also glances ahead, with just about the clearest view of this thing I’ve seen this morning:
With his victory in North Carolina on Tuesday, Barack Obama took a giant step toward the Democratic presidential nomination. The irony is that he is doing this just when Hillary Clinton has finally exposed his potential weaknesses as a general election candidate.
The Illinois Senator can certainly breathe easier having dodged a loss in North Carolina, where he once held a big lead. As usual, he swept the under-30 crowd as well as the educated, upscale liberals in the central part of the Tar Heel State. He also seems to have fought the economic issue to a draw, suggesting that his opposition to Mrs. Clinton’s proposal for a moratorium on the 18.4 cent federal gas tax didn’t hurt.
But his victory in North Carolina depended heavily on his overwhelming (91%) share of the black vote, which made up about a third of the primary electorate. Mrs. Clinton won 61% of white Democrats in North Carolina, according to the exit polls, and 65% of white Democrats in Indiana. Mrs. Clinton also broke even among independents. Clearly Mr. Obama’s early promise of a transracial, postpartisan coalition has dimmed as the campaign has progressed and voters have learned more about him.
The controversy over his 20-year association with his pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, seems to have hurt in particular. About half of North Carolina Democrats said the Wright issue mattered to them, and they voted decisively for Senator Clinton. The former First Lady won easily among late deciders, which also suggests that Mr. Obama’s rocky recent performance has cost him. And the Chicagoan continued his poor showing with rural voters, especially in white Democratic counties in Indiana. These are the voters John McCain will have a chance to get in November.
These are also the data points the Clinton campaign will now press with the superdelegates who will ultimately decide this contest. But the bitter political fact for the New York Senator is that her late-game rally may not matter. To nominate Mrs. Clinton now, party insiders would have to deny the nomination to the first African-American with a serious chance to be President, risking a revolt among their most loyal voting bloc.
The truth is that most Democratic pros are so confident of their November prospects that they believe either Senator will defeat John McCain. Mrs. Clinton also showed her own screaming liability yesterday, with nearly half of all Democrats saying she isn’t “honest or trustworthy.” This is the residue of the Clinton scandals, and it is one reason so many superdelegates have already begun to break their long co-dependence with Bill and Hillary by declaring for Mr. Obama.
Judging by his victory speech last night, the Illinois rookie has already begun to pivot to a general election strategy. He tried to address his vulnerabilities on national security and cultural values. And he began to recast his personal story as an affirmation of the American dream – in contrast to the image presented by his much-delayed condemnation of Rev. Wright’s anti-American conspiracy theories.
One habit of modern Democrats is that they tend to fall in love with candidates who are both unknown and untested. The superdelegates will now have to decide if Mr. Obama is more like the Jimmy Carter of 1976 – or Michael Dukakis.
Surber on whether white voters will go for Obama in November. No, he says, but it isn’t about race. Well, not entirely, though it is ironic that thanks to the black racism of Obama’s spiritual guide, the first viable black presidential candidate actually does have a race problem. Surber also thinks Obama’s the one and already misses Hillary. Oh ye of little faith … how can we miss her when she has no intention of going away?
Malkin, Obama’s Biggest Liability, His Bitter Half. In Game Over, she notes Hillary’s cancelled the morning’s appearances. Some might call that a big exit sign. Could be. Either that or its a council of war in the bunker.
NY Observer’s Politicker’s got your Wolfson: No discussions of Hillary dropping out. Last night was progress. But it’s not so much what the chief spinmeister says. It’s what the campign does.
And Gateway remains optimistic like me. Hillary loans herself $6.4 million. Good news!
Karl at Protein Wisdom is in for the long haul.
Speaking of general electability, Hyscience notes Obama’s playing of the white card. Not only will taht dog not hunt, it’s likely to bite him in the ass (more).
Maguire at JustOneMinute sees an Obamian historical disconnect.
Gandelman at the Moderate Voice channels Hitchens, noting Bill’s dour look on stage in Indiana last night as a bad omen, but notes its too early to plant a tombstone on the Clinton plot.
Poligazette says its over, you’ll croak yourself if you know what’s good for you, Hill.
Thanks to RCP and Memeorandum on the roundup.
Related, not so different, we segue out of politics with Tigerhawk’s ”The Bowling Genius of Storm Lake.”
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:54 am on Wednesday, May 7, 2008
6 Responses to “Not Dead Yet”
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:09 am
[…] 2: Jules Crittenden doesn’t think it is over. [Insert Monty Python’s parrot sketch […]
May 7th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Like you, I don’t think Hillary has gouged her last eye yet. If nothing else, she and Bill have probably got enough dirt on enough people to keep going for a while yet.
I don’t know if I’m a typical white voter or not, but there is no way I could vote for Obama, and it’s got nothing to do with his race (in fact, in the beginning I was hoping he would finally be The One). I don’t think a clueless black president, or even a racist one (which I’m not sure Obama is anyway), could do much deliberate damage to the US, because Washington’s bureaucratic infrastructure wouldn’t allow it, not with elections and jobs on the line. What I fear is Obama’s record of non-accomplishment, his history of association with radical socialists, his insistence that all we need to do is “talk” to our enemies and there will be peace and rainbows. I see Jimmy Carter all over again, and I do NOT want to go through that again, especially when the stakes this time around are so much higher.
May 7th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
And I also fear Michelle. Her skill at eye-gouging is unproven, but her whining would sour milk.
May 7th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Hillary Eyes 2012
She cannot let him win because that would in fact be the final stake through the heart of the Clinton political machine. Her only chance is to damage him during the primary and let McCain finish off the remains in the general election and she may eve…
May 7th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Andrew Sullivan is such a joke:
“The Clintons were exposed in their long-running exploitation and reliance on minority votes. No group was more loyal to them than African-Americans; and in the end, like everyone else, African-Americans realized that the Clintons are frauds, disloyal to the core, cynical to their finger-tips, and finally, finally, returned the favor.”
How in the world does he arrive at this?? For some reason, black voters seem to want to be exploited, so they vote democrat as the most monolithic voting block this country has ever seen. Then the dems have a white contestant and a black contestant in at the end and now they are monolithically voting for the black candidate.
How hard is this to analyze, and how in the world do you wind up with Sullivan’s slant?
May 8th, 2008 at 12:10 am
…Obama’s spiritual guide, the first viable black presidential candidate actually does have a race problem.
True, him being an outright racist and all.