Whack Please
High-level pro-U.S. Iranian regime dissidents would welcome air strikes. Newsmax:
As Barack Obama and John McCain thrash it out over how they would deal with Iran, voices from inside Iran are weighing in with an unusual message: If the United States strikes hard and fast, we will support you.
Emissaries from inside Iran have been meeting with Iranian exiles in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere in recent weeks to deliver this provocative message, which they claim comes from pro-U.S. dissidents at the upper-most levels of the regime.
“U.S. airstrikes must be powerful and sustained enough to break the myth of the regime’s absolute power and reveal the weakness of the leadership,” a former official who traveled outside of Iran recently said.
OK, so far so good. Runs contrary to the notion that attacking Iran would bring everyone into line with the regime, however. So there’s the question of whether this is a mullah “briar patch” gambit. Read on. These guys are looking for big fireworks, in plain view of everyone. So does this topple the regime, or just create heightened propaganda, collateral damage opportunities?
The United States should target the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards Corp, the offices of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and that of his predecessor and rival, Mullah Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Iranian sources say.
The goal should be to carry out sustained airstrikes over a 48-72 hour period that would “decapitate” the regime.
Such a strike would send a clear message to the Iranian people and to disgruntled officials throughout Iran’s faction-ridden government that the United States is serious about confronting the regime over its bad behavior in Iraq and is willing to strike the leaders responsible for that behavior, the Iranian sources argue.
Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton has urged the administration to launch airstrikes against Quds Force bases and facilities in Iran that have been used to support Iran’s campaign to help terrorist groups in Iraq to kill Americans.
But many Iranians contend that limited strikes would have a limited usefulness, and might even be counter-productive.
Well, Iranians in the neo-con camp like it.
“The conventional wisdom is that limited strikes will allow the regime to rally the people around the flag,” says Mohebat Ahdiyyih, an Iran media analyst at the office of the director of National Intelligence.
“However, if the U.S. launches a major strike that goes after the leadership in Iran, that’s different,” he told Newsmax. “Most Iranians hate the regime. People would be very happy to see a major strike that took out the leadership.”
Mr. Ahdiyyih and other Iran analysts speaking at an American Enterprise Institute conference on Monday painted a picture of a bitterly-divided regime in Tehran that is “unstable” and fighting for its survival.
All interesting, though toppling the regime sounds like a bit of a reach. As opposed to targeting nuke and terrorist-support facilities, which lets the regime know there will be consequences for supporting terrorism and efforts at regional domination, and sending a clear message to Iranians and the rest of the world that that is what it is about. The regime offices can get blown up next time, if they don’t get the message. The article goes on to say Revolutionary Guard factionalism can be exploited by high-level regime strikes and also offers some contrary views.
U.S. airstrikes that target the top leadership of Iran and refrain from extensive damage to civilians or religious targets, could win strong support from the Iranian people for a pro-U.S. coup by the security services, many Iranians in positions of responsibility believe.
“Anything that hurts the regime will make the people of Iran happy. The young people in Iran see the U.S. as the only country that can help them,” former regime official, Dr. Mohsen Sazegara, told Newsmax this week.
Dissidents within the Iranian military and the Revolutionary Guards believe that U.S. air strikes that take out the leadership will open the doors to a coup led by the military that would put an end to the Islamic Republic.
But some Iranian pro-democracy activists fear that air strikes will only perpetuate the tyranny of the Islamic Republic.
“Military strikes, as limited as they may be, will allow the regime to repress Iranians even more, because Iran will be at a state of war where dissent will simply not be tolerated,” former student leader Roozbeh Farahanipour told Newsmax.”
Goldfarb at Weekly Standard splits the difference: “if the opposition would welcome airstrikes, and the regime would welcome airstrikes…”
Topics: Iran
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:18 pm on Wednesday, May 21, 2008
6 Responses to “Whack Please”
Leave a Reply
Trackback URLYou must be logged in to post a comment.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:52 am
If there are opponents of the regime in the army and security services prepared to carry out a coup they should get on with it. We have no real evidence they exist. Once they have acted we can help them, but they must act. If thepeople hate the mullahs they will welcome the coup. This sounds more like rope-a-dope by the Ayatollahs.
What Iran needs right now is a Pinochet, who will rescue the country from disaster and retire at an appropriate time in the future. But the Pharaohs of Tehran know that and I’ll bet they have gelded the generals to prevent any such action against them.
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:50 am
I don’t want to pay for another war. Unless there’s no alternative.
I grow tired of the US, with limited assistance from a handful of countries, covering most of the expense of the War Against Terrorism while Europe, Japan, China, and other countries receive considerable benefit, some directly.
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:23 am
from a handful of countries
Define “handful”.
Just CJTF-HOA alone has Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Yemen, Seychelles, Comoros, Mauritius, and Madagascar participating.
But wait…you probably don’t even know what CJTF-HOA even is if you’re getting your news from the lamestream media.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:12 am
I didn’t know what CJTF-HOA was (until I googled it just now), although I get my news from the web and try to keep up.
Are those countries helping to fund the effort? Seems like wron has a point when it comes to the economics, big picture; am I wrong?
(But I disagree with his implication that economics should be much of a factor in weighing whether to take military action in Iran.)
Avenger, if you have knowledge of the Horn of Africa operation, what’s up with Yemen and Somalia–what I have read lately has suggested that these are trouble spots, not allies (again, my knowledge is admittedly thin).
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:03 am
They’re trouble spots. Yemen let some USS Cole planners go. They’ve also cut some Guantanamo terrorist releases loose.
Somalia is unstable what with the Islamic Courts Union doing hit and run and pirates operating out of some ports on the Somali coast.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
It’s a nice daydream, decapitating the Iranian leadership. I seriously doubt it will happen until one of our own cities (or Israel) goes up in radioactive smoke.