Windsock Shifts
Andrew Sullivan, having been dragged kicking and screaming full circle* back into something reluctantly approximating a less than anti-war position, with advice for Obama. Excessive pessimist counsels against excessive pessimism:
The WaPo reflects what I’ve been trying to understand better: the surprising success (after a rocky start) of the Iraqi Army in Basra, the neutralization of the worst parts of the Sadr forces in Sadr City, increasing success in Mosul, and four-year lows in sectarian violence. The caveats are still there and should never be discounted: Sadr’s militias are still strong in the shadows, sectarian tensions can still flare up, national reconciliation (with a few recent bright spots) remains elusive, Iran is meddlesome, etc. But that the Maliki government is stronger now than anyone anticipated a few months ago seems beyond doubt. WaPo:
If the positive trends continue, proponents of withdrawing most U.S. troops, such as Mr. Obama, might be able to responsibly carry out further pullouts next year. Still, the likely Democratic nominee needs a plan for Iraq based on sustaining an improving situation, rather than abandoning a failed enterprise. That will mean tying withdrawals to the evolution of the Iraqi army and government, rather than an arbitrary timetable; Iraq’s 2009 elections will be crucial. It also should mean providing enough troops and air power to continue backing up Iraqi army operations such as those in Basra and Sadr City. When Mr. Obama floated his strategy for Iraq last year, the United States appeared doomed to defeat. Now he needs a plan for success.
The trap Obama must not be caught in is one of excessive pessimism. Conditions now favor expeditious withdrawal more than they did only a few months ago. But the manner of withdrawal, its pace, and its concomitant diplomacy now require a different cast, and may require an even different one next February and March. None of this means that this war was not a mistake; it does suggest it need not in the medium term be a catastrophe. Petraeus deserves the lion’s share of the credit; luck and time and the self-defeating nihilism of the Jihadists have helped. But Bush and McCain equally merit points for pursuing the surge, even though the metrics pointed to failure. Obama needs to capitalize on these gains, not dismiss them.
The self-defeating nihilism of Obama and Sullivan, however, merits them no credit at all. If they had had their way, Iraq would be a genocidal basketcase by now, run from Tehran, those parts of it which had not been declared the new Caliphate, those parts of it which were not bloody no man’s lands, that is. America’s influence in that part of the world and much of the rest of it would be shot.
Not clear to me why anyone would give either of them any credit. Contrary to what Simon at Classical Values says, this doesn’t suggest a return to sanity for Sullivan, but another waffle as the wind shifts, and a cynical effort to encourage the surrenderist camp to avoid political disaster in November by continuing to advocate bloody geopolitical disaster in Iraq. As welcome as even an incidentally correct position may be, the windsock also known as Andrew Sullivan will remain irrelevant until he develops something approaching principles. And more relevant than anything Sullivan thinks on any given day, as Rubin at Commentary notes, Obama’s weathervane remains stuck on S. Fill in your own “S” word. ”Surrender” works. So does “stupid.”
Interesting though that the likes of Sullivan has put his finger on a key element of Obama’s utter unsuitability to be a wartime president. Excessive pessimism. That and a willingness to treat with the enemy from a position of self-induced weakness. That and a failure, from the beginning, to understand the threat that our intelligence agencies believed Saddam Hussein posed; that he did in fact pose; that failure in Iraq poses; that Iran poses. That and the bigoted anti-Americanism, of course.
Anyway, I suspect that despite Sullivan’s mighty striving to understand all of this better — an endeavor that apparently requires the approval of “The WaPo” – before he manages that, he’ll have arrived at some other position.
Speaking of which, prior Sullivan strategic thought here.
Meanwhile, Sullivan tonight elaborates on Obama’s qualifications to be president. He talks good. Cares deeply, feels strongly about wars that have been over for decades/centuries, but cleverly distracts from current war with economic pitch. I also like the gushy part about Obama almost weeping about the granny he threw under the bus.
*Full circle in retrospect is overly generous. Maybe more like 35 minutes past the hour. OK, moving on.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:04 pm Comments (3) on Tuesday, June 3, 2008
3 Responses to “Windsock Shifts”
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June 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Sullivan has principles. They just have nothing to do with the rest of the world. His principles are that his idea of his love life should be worshiped by all.
June 4th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Tomorrow Sully will have a new story. Tune in, be prepared for the lurch.
June 4th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
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