Messiah Don’t Bounce
Anointed One could use a second coming. Boston Herald:
Barack Obama’s divided and poorly timed convention has given him no boost in tracking polls, leaving him in danger of trailing Republican John McCain by the time the GOP conclave ends next week.
“It’s problematic for Obama,” said University of New Hamsphire Survey Center director Andy Smith. “The Republicans are immediately going to steal the spotlight and probably counter any bounce that would be there.”
As Obama steps up tonight for the speech of his career - a prime-time outdoor arena extravaganza designed to galvanize support and rocket him into the intense race ahead - his campaign faces:
• The danger that the GOP convention - starting next week in an unprecedented back-to-back schedule for the party conclaves - will immediately steal any Democratic thunder.
“McCain could come out of the convention with a five-point lead, and if it sticks around through October, that’s hard to shake. Then McCain is the leader and people are wondering why Obama’s losing,” Smith said.
• Complaints from pundits and party operatives that the DNC was focused more on infighting with the Clintons than taking on McCain.
“More Republicans support McCain than Democrats support Obama,” said national pollster Scott Rasmussen, saying the Dems haven’t hit McCain hard enough in convention speeches. “I think it is possible that McCain people will start out (at the convention) drawing contrasts with Obama.”
• Polls showing McCain holding down Obama in the polls despite the nationally televised convention, and no bounce from Obama’s long-awaited running mate pick - an event that pollsters say ususally draws at least a two-percentage point gain.
“There was zero, nothing, a flat line,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, referring to Obama’s selection of Deleware Sen. Joe Biden. “It was a bland choice because nobody knows who he is.”
Obama and McCain are neck and neck in the national polls despite three days of glowing speeches about the Illinois senator during a highly publicized convention viewed by 22 million people.
“It’s a big concern,” said Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos. “You’ve got poor job approval for (President George W.) Bush, you’ve got the Iraq war and the economy. When you take the sum of all of these issues it suggests a larger lead (for Obama).”
Maybe people noticed we’re winning that war, for starters, and Obama still wants to lose it. There’s the Hillary thing. There’s the Biden thing. There’s the parade of Democratic dinosaurs and losers. But at the end of the day, there’s the Obama thing. Maybe people noticed the messiah, though full of it, is a little light in the loafers. Bummer.
Well, this should help. John Kerry, reporting for attack dog duty
… should help McCain.
Here’s some more convention fun from El Heraldo:
Bloom is off Bill’s rose for Marjorie. Howie make hurtful remarks about Biden.
Uh oh, turns out Biden’s part of that Washington insider old politics $$$ thing Obama is gunning for.
Topics: pols
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 1:40 pm on Thursday, August 28, 2008
2 Responses to “Messiah Don’t Bounce”
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August 28th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Oops, timing on this post was poor. Gallup says Obama 48 McCain 42, from Obama up 1 to Obama up 6 since yesterday.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109897/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-Ahead-48-42.aspx
August 28th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Last night the conventioneers finally started ot put it together, but there’s a lot of pressure on Obama right now. With the Democratic convention going first, it’s like Obama has the outside lane and this is his best chance approaching the curve. If he doesn’t lead by at least 10 going into the Republican convention, he’ll really be trailing.
And Obama being Obama (a guy who comes on strong but gets less likable as you get to know him), he can’t afford to be trailing this time next week.