Palin in 2016
It’s more bad news for Palin bashers. MIT actuary says look for a healthy McCain to live through his first term. Another says he’s good for two terms. Boston Herald:
An MIT statistical brainiac says John McCain would not only survive his term if elected president, but would likely do so in good health, turning the actuarial tables on critics who question the GOP nominee’s age and physical condition.
Boston-based actuary Stephen Kraysler gives McCain a 94.5 percent chance of surviving his first term, while his Democratic opponent Sen. Barack Obama has a 99.5 percent chance.
“People are concerned about McCain’s age, but these numbers prove he’s not going to keel over anytime soon,” Kraysler said.
Actuarial science is used by insurance companies to assess risk based on statistical tables and models.
McCain’s health has gone under increased scrutiny since the 72-year-old chose Alaska governor Sarah Palin to be his No. 2 last month.
Strangely, it turns out the Palin bashers don’t know what they are talking about in this matter.
Democratic opponents, including Boston native and Tinseltown action stud Matt Damon, have painted Palin as inexperienced and say she could be “just a heartbeat away” from taking over the Oval Office.
But Kraylser argued the Social Security actuarial tables used by Damon have a higher mortality rate because they are making estimations for about 100,000 people in the same age group and are less accurate.
Another actuarial company has already said McCain has a 92 percent chance of surviving through two terms, and said he has another 8.4 years left in good health.
“I’ve seen remarks that (McCain) has a 1 in 3 probability of dying. That’s greatly overstated,” said James Brooks, a senior actuary at the Atlanta-based Bragg’s, a company that specializes in predicting mortality and morbidity.
Obama has a 98.5 percent chance of surviving his first term, and is expected to have another 21.9 years of healthy living, according to Brooks.
Brooks said he based his projections on the histories of men with similar ages and medical backgrounds.
In McCain’s case, that means a 72-year-old man with a history of melanoma and degenerative arthritis, and for Obama, that’s a 44-year-old with a history of smoking.
Which means McCain is, relatively speaking, healthier than Obama.
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Posted by Jules Crittenden at 12:22 am on Thursday, September 18, 2008
4 Responses to “Palin in 2016”
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September 18th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Them’s facts, Jules. PDS sufferers could care less about facts. ;-p
September 18th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
John McCain has no doubt had the very best medical care that can be given because of his war wounds. Obama, on the other hand, strikes me as being a little more casual about such things, given his apparent belief in his invincibility.
September 18th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Strange how Obama refuses to release his medical records. Oh, sure, his doctor says he’s in the best of health, and there’s no apparent reason to doubt it. Still, it makes you wonder if there’s something in there he doesn’t want people to see.
September 18th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
We have had 42 presidents, depending how you count Grover Cleveland. Out of that number seven have died in office. 4 by assassination (Lincoln, Hayes, McKinley, and Kennedy) and 3 by disease (Harrison I, Harding, Roosevelt). The naive odds of a president dying in Office, are therefor about 1 in 6.
That is probably no better an analysis than the any of the others.
OTOH, if Obama is our next president, we won’t have to worry about the odds, we will have an inexperienced empty suit as our president on day 1. May the Lord have mercy on us poor sinners.