The Trouble With Russia
Barry Rubin on Russia’s inferiority complex, how big a problem it is, and why it is a big deal for the next president. Quick Russky/Middle East roundup starts with Rubin at the GLORIA Center:
The return of Russian power in the Middle East, next to Iran’s nuclear weapons’ campaign, is the region’s most important new issue. While far less threatening than the Soviet bloc’s Cold War backing for radical Arab states, this development poses some major problems for U.S. leaders, Israeli interests, and Middle East politics.
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Though many in the West seem to have forgotten, ambition, ideology, and realpolitik have not vanished from this world. If one team plays the game like rugby and the other like solitaire, the former has some natural advantages. Or, if you prefer a different metaphor, sort of like a shark facing off against a preening goldfish.
Today, Russia’s ambitions are much diminished. Indeed, while it desperately seeks money, the goal that seems to dominate President Vladimir Putin’s thinking is not so much world domination as a sense of grievance and a desire for respect. Unfortunately, these last two qualities have been shown in the Middle East to be among the most dangerous of all.
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Today, there are two concerns about Russian policy. Most directly are its moves toward alliance with Iran and Syria. Tehran has been careful to keep in Russia’s good graces, keeping mum about the struggles of Russian Muslims in Chechnya and elsewhere. For its part, Russia has to some extent shielded Iran from sanctions and provided it with a nuclear reactor, albeit with safeguards. Russian arms to Syria go to Hizballah, a fact that Russian leaders deny but obviously know quite well.
So will Russia become the patron of the radical forces in the region? That kind of estimate would be going too far, but the extension of some Russian protection and help for the Iran-led bloc would be an additional problem in the already uphill battle against these forces.
The second problem is Russia’s rebuilding of empire, visible most clearly in its attack on Georgia using local ethnic disputes as an excuse. Similar techniques could easily be used against a number of other former possessions, ranging from the Baltic states through the Caucasus.
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To the United States, Russia is going to be one of the most important and delicate issues in the next presidency. One would think this prompts the need for a president who can be tough when necessary. After all, Moscow does not believe in tears, and from it come things other than love.
Reuters: US warns of punitive measures re Georgia.
WSJ blogs: Palin defends her Russky foreign policy experience.
“As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go?” Palin asked. “It’s Alaska. It’s just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right next to…our state.”
CNN: Chavez reaffirms Russky alliance.
via Breitbart: Yanks, Ivans reach a deal on new UN resolution vs. the mullahs. Wild guess: toothless.
Western diplomats said the resolution would reaffirm three rounds of earlier U.N. sanctions to make clear that the process has not been dropped and that the council wants Iran to comply.
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The United States, Britain and France have been pressing for a new round of sanctions to step up pressure against Iran for its continuing refusal to suspend uranium enrichment as a prelude to talks on its nuclear program. But Russia and China objected to new sanctions.
The proposed new resolution appears to be a compromise—no new sanctions but a tough statement to Iran that Security Council resolutions are legally binding and must be carried out.
Russia on Tuesday had scuttled high-level talks on imposing new sanctions on Iran that had been set for Thursday between the foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany, the key players in seeking an agreement with Iran. Even sanctions opponent China had agreed to the meeting.
U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, sought to downplay the move, saying the time wasn’t right for the session. But they had previously said such a gathering would be useful and necessary to get a fourth Security Council sanctions resolution on Iran.
UK Guardian: Bush nixed Israeli request to bomb mullah nukes last spring. Well, there’s always October.
AFP: Iranians mock the Holocaust, Hamas calls for more suicide bombs in Al-Quds Day festivities.
Topics: Russia, middle east
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:55 am on Friday, September 26, 2008
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