It’s Obama! … Or Not!
CBS: Uncommitted voters say Obama won last night’s debate!
Forty percent of the 516 uncommitted voters surveyed identified Barack Obama as tonight’s winner; 26 percent said John McCain won, while 34 percent saw the debate as a draw.
Sounds more like Obama still has some work to do. However, no one every went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. Here’s what vague generalities get you:
After the debate, 68 percent of uncommitted voters said that they think Obama will make the right decisions on the economy, compared to 55 percent who said that before the debate. Fewer thought McCain would do so – 48 percent after the debate, and 41 percent before.
Before the debate, 59 percent thought Obama understands voters’ needs and problems; that rose to 80 percent after the debate. For McCain, 33 percent felt he understands voters’ needs before the debate, and 44 percent thought so afterwards.
Interesting. That sounds like they just polled 124 percent of uncommitted voters. Either that or large numbers of people could go either way. Then there’s this. CBS calls it “some good news for McCain,” but I’d call it “that nagging dark reality that haunts Obama in the pre-dawn hours.”
There is some good news for McCain, who still dominates Obama when it comes to perceptions of readiness to be president. Before the debate, 42 percent thought Obama was prepared for the job, and that percentage rose to 58 percent after the debate. But 77 percent felt McCain was prepared for the job before the debate, and 83 percent thought so afterwards.
Lessee, that’s 141 percent. Where they heck are they getting all these uncommitteds? Either that or huge numbers of people could go either way. Anyway, readiness to be president could be key. It’s the kind of nagging gut sense that people take into election booths with them, and as some angsty Obamists have noted, they don’t have a landslide yet, and without one, they have a problem. OK, more numbers:
Before the debate, 51 percent thought Obama would bring real change; afterwards, 63 percent thought that. For McCain, just 23 percent thought he would bring real change before the debate, while 38 percent thought so afterwards.
Awright, McCain! Your percentage went up more!
Seventy-two percent of uncommitted voters remained uncommitted after the debate. Fifteen percent committed to Obama, and 12 percent to McCain.
Damn. Gonna have to shake that turf up a little more if you want to get a landslide out of that. Sounds like a draw. And we know who wins that.
CNN has a poll that gives Obama a little more, but it focuses mainly on style points, and though the numbers in the muddy middle aren’t laid out, there appears to be a lot of it. Then there’s this from CNN’s polling director:
“For McCain, the key finding may be that his favorable rating did not change at all,” Holland said. “It’s unclear whether Obama will gain any momentum from Tuesday night’s debate, but it looks like McCain will not do so, and for a candidate who has consistently been a few points behind in national polls, that’s not a good sign.”
Obama’s favorability went up four whole points. Sounds like at CNN, that Obama glass is half full.
Topics: pols
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 8:36 am on Wednesday, October 8, 2008
One Response to “It’s Obama! … Or Not!”
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October 9th, 2008 at 7:08 am
I think Obama will bring real change. Things will change from bad to worse…