Trail Yuks
Edward Luce at the Financial Times laughs it up with the candidates, and notes the last laugh is still out there. “Will a funny thing happen on the way to Washington?”
At what was the first – and probably last – humorous occasion of this dyspeptic campaign, John McCain and Barack Obama gave comic speeches on Thursday at the annual dinner in memory of Al Smith, the great Catholic-American.
Both revealed a side they have kept well concealed in recent months. “Contrary to popular opinion, I was not born in a manger,” said Mr Obama. “I just call him ‘That One’”, said Mr McCain of his opponent. “He doesn’t mind at all: He even has a pet name for me: George Bush.”
In the best humorous tradition, the funniest line was the one that cut closest to the bone. “We all know that Senator Obama is ready for any contingency – even the possibility of a sudden and dramatic market rebound,” said Mr McCain. “I’m told that at the first sign of recovery he will suspend his campaign and fly immediately to Washington to address this crisis.”
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The RealClear Politics website’s average of polls, which gives Mr Obama a lead of 6.8 per cent over Mr McCain, offers a better guide to the situation. It compares to John Kerry’s lead just a few weeks before he lost the 2004 election to Mr Bush. It is also slightly lower than Mr Obama’s lead over Hillary Clinton shortly before she bested him – and the media – in the New Hampshire primary at the start of the year.
Even were Mr Obama’s average lead to hold up on election day, which would produce the largest Democratic victory since 1964, the one-way bet might still look rash in hindsight. InTrade, the most cited online political betting site, gives Mr Obama an 84 per cent probability of victory – as safe a bet as there is. Can that really be accurate? Or do those who punt on elections read the same newspapers as everybody else?
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On Thursday, Mr McCain also wrapped this Democratic spectre in humour. “I come here tonight knowing that I’m the underdog,” he said. “But if you know where to look, there are signs of hope. Even in this room full of proud Manhattan Democrats I can’t shake that feeling that some people here are pulling for me. I’m delighted to see you here tonight, Hillary.”
OK, all kidding aside, David Shribman at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says it’s all ground game now.
Predicting turnout is only slightly less foolish than predicting the Dow Jones industrial average, but it’s likely the voting rate will be around what it was in 2004, when 60.7 percent of eligible Americans went to the polls, the highest percentage since 1968, when turnout was 61.9 percent. The highest turnout ever was nearly 65 percent in 1960 — a slightly misleading figure, because African-Americans were considered eligible to vote but were in fact almost universally prevented from doing so in the South. Thus the real turnout figure for 1960 may be as high as 67 percent.
He goes on to note all the factors in Obama’s favor, and notes that Obama’s deceptively straight and level road could actually be uphill.
Michael Goodwin at the NY Daily News approaches the same question from the other side: McCain’s within striking distance.
It’s practically unanimous: Polls, pols and pundits, not to mention bookies, agree that Barack Obama can start measuring the White House curtains.
Except the election isn’t over. And that’s more than a statement of fact about voters not yet having their say.
John McCain still can win. Yes, he’s a long shot, and if he pulls it off, it would likely be by a very narrow margin in the Electoral College.
But McCain has a shot because, despite a fumbling campaign in a hostile environment for the GOP brand, he remains within striking distance in enough swing states. While Obama leads in nine of 12 battleground states identified by RealClearPolitics.com, his margin is generally under 6 points.
The tightness means McCain doesn’t need a miracle or an Obama collapse. His fate largely is still in his own hands.
Reason No. 1 why McCain still has a chance is the tax issue. Joe the Plumber put a human face on the perennial hot button, and McCain has seized on Obama’s glib “spread the wealth around” comment to give himself a second chance on the economic argument.
Topics: pols
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:46 am on Sunday, October 19, 2008
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