Target: London
Comply with United Nations demands re nukes? Nah … target London. Iranian strategy for hanging in there and averting an attack in the waning days of the Bush administration. MEMRI:
In an October 18, 2008 article on the Iranian website Aftab, Wahid Karimi, director of the Europe and U.S. department in Iran’s Foreign Ministry, recommends that Iran mark London as a target, since it is the capital of the country that is the U.S.’s closest ally in Europe. This, says Karimi, would be with the aim of ensuring that the Bush administration does not attack Iran in its final weeks, after the U.S. presidential election next month and before Bush officially leaves office on January 20, 2009.
Following are the main points of Karimi’s article:
Karimi: “The Most Appropriate Means of Deterrence that Iran Has, in Addition to a Retaliatory Operation in the [Gulf] Region, Is to Take Action against London”
“… It is clear to everyone that George Bush will remain the official president of the United States until January 20, 2009. U.S. presidents are usually adventuresome in their second terms… [among them Richard] Nixon, disgraced by the Watergate scandal; [Ronald] Reagan, with the Irangate adventure; [and Bill] Clinton, with Monica Lewinsky – and perhaps George Bush, the sitting president, will create a scandal connected to Iran’s legitimate nuclear activity so as not to be left behind.
“In the past, Iran has marked as a target the U.S. military bases in the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, so as to deter American adventurism. Shortly after that, it gave the requisite warnings regarding [a possible Iranian move to] paralyze ‘the Jerusalem-occupying regime [i.e. Israel],’ so as to deter American adventurism…
“Although a U.S. military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations is not likely… the last two months of Bush’s presidency, from late November 2008 to January 20, 2009, will be the worst possible days of his presidency [for Iran, and during them he can] exploit his power to carry out political adventurism and a ill-conceived operation. If so, how can we restrain him?
“It is possible that after the next president of the United States is determined in November – that is, [either John] McCain or [Barack] Obama – Bush and the president-elect will reach an agreement about an ill-conceived operation against Iran.
“In the worst-case scenario, George Bush may perhaps persuade the president-elect to carry out an ill-conceived operation against Iran, prior to January 20, 2009 – that is, before the regime is handed over and he ends his presence in the White House. The next president of the U.S. will have to deal with the consequences…
“If we agree that such a scenario – with America, England and Israel at its center – is conceivable, then it would seem that the most appropriate means of deterrence that Iran has, in addition to a retaliatory operation in the [Gulf] region, is to take action against London. Experience proves that the [part played] by politicians in Tel Aviv and in London, in the [fanning of the] flames against Iran and in the urging of America to strike Iran, is no less than [the part played] by Bush.”
Sounds like a partner for peace. Very bi-partisan of him, by the way, but on what planet does he think Obama will reach an agreement with Bush to bomb Iran? I suppose an Obama faced with the horrible reality of actually having to govern, despite all the Kumbayah-singing, could recognize the dirty work must be done and would prefer the hated Bush … a sort of pre-condition to talks that he doesn’t have to set.
The Iranian missile program became an object of fun with Iran’s recent tests of the latest PhotoShop technology, but there is no doubt the mullahs are very serious about extending their ability to reach out and touch some infidels. As a pratical matter, it’s highly doubtful Iran has missiles with the range and accuracy to target even the Atlantic Ocean with any precision. Estimates of Iranian threat not enhanced by PhotoShop: GlobalSecurity.org here and here. Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs here. The rest of Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and heck, even Russia should be concerned about the prospect of wild shots.
On the other hand, Cliff May and James Jay Carafano suggest another scenario: Short-range missiles on low-profile sea-based platforms.
Meanwhile, Schippert at ThreatsWatch, It’s the terrorism, stupid.
… It’s what they know. It’s what they do.
Important related infidel provocation news via Gateway: Iran arrests spy pigeons at nuke facility.
Latest news:
AP: UN Security Council Five plus Germany talks fail to reach consensus on the next step with Iran. What a surprise, with the tag team of Russia and China at the table. Apparently it was China’s turn.
The high-level talks among the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — along with Germany, came after the Chinese dropped objections to the consultations, the officials said. China had blocked the discussion for nearly two weeks, apparently in retaliation for U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
Yeah, that and the undesireability of the United States whacking anyone with regional and/or global domination aspirations.
Fars, U.S. fails to push new sanctions, with an alternate universe view of recent reports:
Washington’s push for additional UN penalties contradicts a recent report by 16 US intelligence bodies that endorsed the civilian nature of Iran’s programs. Following the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and similar reports by the IAEA head – one in November and the other one in February – which praised Iran’s truthfulness about key aspects of its past nuclear activities and announced settlement of outstanding issues with Tehran, any effort to impose further sanctions on Iran seems to be completely irrational.
The February report by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, praised Iran’s cooperation in clearing up all of the past questions over its nuclear program, vindicating Iran’s nuclear program and leaving no justification for any new UN sanctions.
JPost columnist, Hey, look on the bright side:
You don’t often hear good news about efforts to stop the Iranian nuclear program. On the contrary, what is generally heard is a steady, depressing drumbeat of the inevitability that President Mahmoud (”Israel is a filthy microbe”) Ahmadinejad will pass the nuclear threshold as a weak-kneed world stands by and does little.
In the last month alone, we have heard Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz, Military Intelligence’s head of research, tell the cabinet that Iran is half way to its first nuclear bomb; International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohammed ElBaradei actually admit that Iran may be running clandestine nuclear programs; and numerous commentators and analysts argue that with the US bogged down in Iraq, Afghanistan and now on Wall Street, the chances of either an American military action to stop Iran, or a US nod to Israel to take action, are almost nil.
And, if that were not gloomy enough, Ahmadinejad continues his anti-Israel tirades, even as he boasts that his country’s centrifuges continue enriching uranium.
Yet, in recent weeks – almost imperceptibly – some satisfaction has been expressed in Jerusalem that significant economic sanctions Iran will actually feel are on their way, and indeed already being implemented – measures led by the US, Britain and France.
This is taking place at a time when, as the bazaar strikes last week over the imposition of a 3 percent value added tax indicated, the economic situation in Iran – despite the huge oil-price windfall – is anything but sterling. Inflation is running at an estimated 29%, unemployment is high and gasoline is rationed. While Ahmadinejad runs off at the mouth, his subjects are running low on cash and basic commodities.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:29 am Comments (2) on Tuesday, October 21, 2008
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October 21st, 2008 at 11:22 am
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 10/21/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
October 22nd, 2008 at 3:35 am
“As a practical matter, it’s highly doubtful Iran has missiles with the range and accuracy to target even the Atlantic Ocean with any precision.”
Yeah, but can it hit the Indian ocean yet? If it can, maybe the USN can go lounge around Somalia for a while and see if they’ll go after us. Kind of a ‘Yo, ho ho, and a bottle of rum,’ moment at the place where the pirates leak into the sea.