Divine Wind Breaks
As Messiah toots a righteous trumpet. ABC’s Political Punch:
“If you’ll stand with me, then I know that we can win Virginia and we can win this election and we can finally bring the change we need to Washington,” Obama told the estimated crowd of 35,000. “I feel like we got a righteous wind at our backs here.”
Almost sounds like a God-given gastrointestinal problem. Either that or a pious petard on which he’ll hoist himself. RCP shows tightening in Gallup and AP polls — the former down to 5 points and the latter only giving Obama a 1-point lead — while Zogby, who had been showing a statistical dead heat, has Obama opening up to 12. Zogby discusses it with the Herald’s Joe Dwinell here:
The gloves are off – between the pollsters not the candidates – as polling guru John Zogby ripped an Associated Press survey showing the McCain-Obama battle down to a dead heat.
“The AP poll is not only an outlier, it’s just preposterous!” Zogby told the Herald last night.
An “outlier” is a term for a result on the margin that is often thrown out by statisticians.
The AP-Gfk shocker showed Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, making the race too close to call despite other polls showing the Democrat leading by several points.
But Zogby, who has Obama jumping ahead of McCain 52-42 percent in his own poll released yesterday, said the AP poll failed to properly count college-age kids.
“We’re looking at a sizeable turnout of young people,” Zogby added, admitting however that “anything can happen.”
Yeah. Like ever other time the youth vote was supposed to swing it, they may forget.
Officials of the AP-Gfk poll could not be reached last night.
The numbers:
The AP-Gfk poll shows McCain gaining among white voters and those earning less than $50,000 a year, with the GOP nominee hitting paydirt with his “Joe the Plumber” tax talk. A George Washington University Battleground Poll also has the two locked in a tight race with Obama at 49 percent to McCain’s 47 percent. The Zogby poll, a three-day rolling average of 1,208 likely voters surveyed nationwide, has Obama gaining ground day by day. “These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers,” Zogby said. Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll had the margin at 11 points in the Democrat’s favor.
Topics: everything
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:12 am Comments (3) on Thursday, October 23, 2008
3 Responses to “Divine Wind Breaks”
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October 23rd, 2008 at 10:21 am
Zogby is less than worthless, and always has been. It’s basically a one man poll. He called the 2004 race over a week before the election. We all remember the Kerry lanslide, right?
http://archive.democrats.com/preview.cfm?term=Campaign+2004+Predictions
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:38 pm
The real complaint I heard about the AP poll, Jules, was that it counted too many Evangelical Christian voters (something like 41 percent, instead of the 23 percent of the American voter population). This weighted the poll too heavily for a GOP-leaning demographic.
At least, that’s the beef I heard.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:38 pm
While my comment is being “moderated,” are you going to MRE this year? Or are you going to be AWOL again?